The Celtics and Miami Heat will matchup on Wednesday, May 1. Tip-off for the game is 7:30 ET and will be shown on TNT. Boston is favored by 14 points in this game, and the total is 200.5. Who do we think will come out on top? Keep reading for our top Celtics vs. Heat predictions.
Celtics vs. Heat Odds
- Spread: Celtics -14
- Total 200.5
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Game Info
- Date: Wednesday, May 1
- Time: 7:30 ET
- Location: TD Garden, Boston MA
- TV: TNT
Heat Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- In their last three road games, Miami has averaged 103 points per game while allowing 106. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
- Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
Celtics Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Celtics have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-2-1 vs. the spread.
- In their last ten games at home, the Celtics have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 114 points per game in this stretch.
- As the betting favorite, the Celtics have an ATS mark of just 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Boston posted a straight up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.
The Celtics picked up a 102-88 win over the Heat in the most recent game of this series, and they also easily covered the spread as 10.5-point favorites. Boston got off to a fast start in this one, outscoring Miami 34-24 in the first quarter. The Heat actually had their best quarter in the 4th, outscoring the Celtics 29-21, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the 81-59 deficit heading into the final quarter. The 190 combined points fell 14.5 points short of the over/under line of 204.5.
Offense was hard to come by for both teams, as the Celtics shot just 41.9% from the field and the Heat shot 40.7%. Boston did hit 14 threes, compared to just nine for Miami. Derrick White had a big game for the Celtics, knocking down 8 threes and finishing with 38 points. Jayson Tatum added 20 points for Boston. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 25 points and 17 rebounds.
Taking a Look at the Heat Chances on the Road
Miami is coming off a 102-88 loss to the Celtics, where they were 10.5-point underdogs. This dropped their record to 46-36 for the season, which is currently 8th in the Eastern Conference and 2nd in the Southeast.
The Heat are 25-19 on the road this season, and they have an average scoring differential of +1.2 points per game. As underdogs, their ATS record is 19-20, and they have lost two straight vs. the spread.
As the underdog, Miami has gone 12-27 straight-up this season. Today, they are 14-point underdogs and have gone 2-2 as the underdog in their last four games. This season, they have been the underdog in 39 of their 82 games.
On the season, Miami has an O/U record of 37-51, and their games have averaged 217.4 points per game. This season, 88 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s (200.5).
In their last game, the Heat and Celtics combined for 190 points, which was well below the O/U line of 204.5. Miami’s ATS record for the season is 43-42, and they have lost two straight vs. the spread.
Miami will be without Jimmy Butler for tonight’s game, as he is averaging 20.8 points per game this season. Terry Rozier is also out for the Heat, as he is averaging 19.8 points per game. Over his last five games, Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. Tyler Herro is averaging 18.6 points in his last five games, while also averaging 6.6 assists in that stretch.
Overall, the Heat are 27th in the league in scoring, at 110.1 points per game. Their scoring average on the road is 107.8 points per contest. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging 95.8 possessions per game.
So far this season, the Miami Heat have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 108.0 points per game, which is 3rd in the league. On the road, Miami has been even better, giving up just 106.6 points per game, which is 1st in the NBA.
Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 82.9% of games vs. the Heat. However, opposing teams have made more threes than their season average in 54.9% of games vs. Miami.
One area where the Heat have struggled defensively is in the blocked shots department, as they are 30th in the league in that category. Miami is also 28th in personal fouls.
Can Boston Live Up to the Hype at Home?
Today’s over/under line of 200.5 is lower than the Celtics’ season average of 228.1. Overall, Boston has gone 44-41-1 on the O/U this season, and the team has hit the under in their last two games.
In their most recent game against the Heat, the Celtics won by a score of 102-88. They also covered the spread as 10.5-point favorites. This win improved their record to 64-18, which is the best in the Eastern Conference.
This season, the Celtics have an ATS record of 44-38, including going 23-18 ATS at home. They have covered the spread in their last two games and are favored by 14 points today.
Out of their 82 games this season, the Celtics have been favored in all but four. As the favorite, they have a record of 65-17 and have won their last two games as the favorite.
In terms of their O/U record, the Celtics are 44-41-1 for the season. On average, their games have scored 228.4 points.
Coming into today’s game, the Celtics are the NBA’s 2nd ranked scoring offense, at 120.6 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 122.4 points per contest. Boston’s offense is built around its three-point shooting, as they lead the league in three-point attempts and are hitting 38% of their shots from downtown.
Boston’s offense is led by Jayson Tatum, who is averaging 26.9 points per game this season. Jaylen Brown is averaging 23 points per game. Over his last four games, Tatum has averaged 23.2 points, and Brown at 22.2. Derrick White has hit 47.1% of his threes in his last four games and 56.9% of his shots overall.
Heading into tonight’s game, the Celtics are ranked 5th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 108.5. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 99.8 points per contest, which is 3rd in the league over that span.
On the season, opponents have shot just 45.3% from the field against Boston, which is 3rd in the NBA. They have also been excellent at defending the three-point line, allowing teams to shoot just 35.0% from beyond the arc.
One area where the Celtics have been particularly strong is at the free-throw line. On the season, they are giving up just 17.1 made free-throws per game, which is tops in the NBA.
Celtics vs. Heat Player Prop
A player prop we are looking at is Tyler Herro and his points prop of 20.5. Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -121 while the under is at -113. Our model predicts that Tyler Herro will finish the game going 9/20 from the field and scoring 23 points. Our suggested wager is to bet on the over for his prop bet, which comes with a payout of -121.
- The Prop: Tyler Herro Over 20.5 Points (-121)
Celtics vs. Heat Predictions
In this Heat vs. Celtics matchup, our point-spread bet is on the Heat at +14. While we project the Celtics to win 115-110, our recommendation is to bet on the Heat for the point-spread.
Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 200.5 and given that our model is projecting 225 points between the teams, we like the over.
The Pick: Heat +14 | at Fanduel Sportsbook