Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA props from Wednesday’s slate of 13 games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Jan. 19.
Brooklyn Nets: SG James Harden
The Prop: 26.5 points (at Washington)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -115
With Kevin Durant sidelined 4-6 weeks (MCL sprain) and Kyrie Irving playing only in road games, Harden — without much external prodding — should feel compelled to pick up the scoring slack for Brooklyn. Heck, he might even channel his Houston days (specifically 2018-20), when the former league MVP led the NBA in scoring three straight seasons.
Of the six times Durant has been sidelined this season, Harden responded with 36, 25, 36, 39, 26, and 22 points. The Arizona State product also averaged 13.7 free-throw attempts in those half-dozen contest (making 85.3%).
In other words, Harden’s incredible knack for getting to the charity stripe typically goes up a notch or two in Durant’s absence.
That said, with or without Durant, Harden has surpassed Wednesday’s scoring total only five times in 12 games since Christmas Day (36, 33, 39, 34, and 27 points). However, he’s shot 44.6 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from three-point range over this stretch — it’s just he’s been shooting at a lower volume.
To that point: In nine games since Jan. 3-17, Harden hoisted 20-plus shots just once. But everything likely changes with Durant wearing street clothes, and Irving (when he’s on the court) dishing out assists. At least, this scenario figures to play out against the Wizards, who own the NBA’s 11th-worst scoring defense (allowing 109.5 ppg).
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Charlotte Hornets: PG LaMelo Ball
The Prop: 6.5 assists (at Boston)
The Odds: Over -145/Under +110
Our old friend Admiral Ackbar has a few words, regarding the Over on this prop: It’s a trap!
What makes the admiral so adamant? After all, Ball’s averaging 7.6 assists per game this season, making Wednesday’s number seemingly reachable.
Ah, but here’s why you should be hesitant to automatically pull the trigger on the Over:
— Boston is yielding the NBA’s fewest assists (21.9 per game), and ranks seventh in scoring defense (105.7 points per game). Also, the Celtics are holding opponents to just 96.2 ppg in their last five home games.
— The Hornets have won four of their last five contests … but in doing so only averaged 106.4 points per game.
— Ball missed the Knicks game on Monday with a non-COVID-related illness. He’s slated to return Wednesday, but will he have enough energy to approach his court-time average of nearly 32 minutes per game?
Now, this isn’t to say Ball can’t eclipse this assist number in Boston. After all, he tallied nine assists in Charlotte’s previous meeting this season against the Celtics (120-109 home loss). In fact, he’s had seven or more assists in three of four games against Atlantic Division foes, as well as seven of his last 10 road games overall.
Minnesota Timberwolves: C Karl-Anthony Towns
The Prop: 37.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Atlanta)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
A simple coin flip might have the same effectiveness as forecasting the direction of this prop. That stats suggest it’s that close.
In seven games since returning from a COVID-related absence on Jan. 5, Towns has cleanly averaged 38 points/rebounds/assists, while clearing tonight’s total four times (28, 38, 37, 39, 56, 32 and 36).
However, Towns tallied three or fewer assists four times in those seven outings. Given that Towns’ scoring average (24.5 ppg) accounts for a whopping 65.6 percent of his points/rebounds/assists output, his best chance at hurdling Wednesday’s prop number likely involves rebounding production.
Now here’s where we come back to the 50-50 nature of this prop:
- Towns has notched a double-double in 17 of 37 games, but averaged only 6.7 rebounds in the other 20 contests
- Towns collected nine or more boards seven times in his last dozen outings; he averaged 6.4 in the other five
The former Kentucky star nailed the game-winning shot last night to beat the Knicks in New York (and his 20-point effort marked KAT’s 197th consecutive double-digit scoring game). In his only three back-to-back situations this season, Towns finished with points/rebounds/assist totals of 38, 42 and 20 in the second game. The first two were at home; the latter was on the road.
Detroit Pistons: SF Saddiq Bey
The Prop: 2.5 made three-pointers (at Sacramento)
The Odds: Over +105/Under -135
The woeful Pistons (10-33 overall) have dropped their last three road games by a combined margin of 92 points; and each time, Detroit failed to reach 90 points.
Does that make Bey’s pursuit of three-plus bombs a lost cause? Surprisingly, no.
Dating back to Dec. 16, Bey buried three or more treys 10 times in 17 games; during this span, the Villanova product shot 36.3 percent from beyond the arc (a tick above his career rate of 35.9%).
Also, for that 17-game span, Bey logged 32-plus minutes 14 different times. The point: Just because the Pistons are near-bottom feeders in the East doesn’t mean Bey will ride the bench for long stretches. And on the plus side, after playing less than 31 minutes apiece against Phoenix (Sunday) and Golden State (Tuesday), Bey should have fresh legs for Sacramento, which ranks 17th in opponents’ three-point proficiency (34.9%).
Bey has first-hand knowledge of how poor the Kings can be defending from distance: On Nov. 15, he made 4 of 9 triples, part of a 9-for-17 shooting performance … in yet another Pistons blowout loss (129-107).
Los Angeles Lakers: SF LeBron James
The Prop: 7.5 rebounds (vs. Indiana)
The Odds: Over -130/Under +100
Sometimes you’ll find some extra juice on NBA Props. That’s the case with the ‘Over’ side on this one. However, it’s reasonable to wonder if there should be more.
After all, James has collected eight-plus rebounds 10 times in 15 games since sidekick Anthony Davis went down with an injury. And he collected exactly seven boards in four of the other five contests.
Also, LeBron has averaged 8.4 rebounds in his last 12 home outings, eclipsing Wednesday’s total seven times. And in his last four matchups against Eastern Conference foes, James notched 8, 9, 14, and 11 rebounds.
Then again, James has corralled only 12 total rebounds in his last two encounters with Indiana (seven last season; five on Nov. 24 at Indiana). He’s also collected eight-plus boards in just eight of 20 home games.
