The news that broke this week around DeAndre Hopkins needing surgery sent ripples through the NFL community. If you’re like me, you immediately ran to pick up AJ Green or Christian Kirk in fantasy.
Green, in particular, stands out, and in Week 15 especially, there’s a lot to like. Here are three reasons to bet on AJ Green’s receiving yards over this weekend.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep.com updated at 11 p.m. ET on Dec. 16.
AJ Green Gets The Lions
The Prop: 59.5 receiving yards at Detroit Lions
The Odds: Over (-118)
Detroit has been one of the worst secondaries all season, consistently letting top receivers hit their prop overs.
The Lions have given up the most passing yards per attempt this season at 7.8. I find this metric to be one of the most indicative of a secondary’s success. The higher the number, the more often the team is letting up chunk plays in the passing game.
Wide receivers average over 160 receiving yards per game against Detroit, and the Lions haven’t shown an ability to slow down weapons on the other end. There’s no reason to expect that to suddenly change.
His Expanded Role Moving Forward
What draws me into AJ Green more than anything else is the production he already had with Hopkins in the lineup.
Green is second on this team in receiving, with 654 yards (15.6 average) and three touchdowns.
With Hopkins shut down for the rest of the regular season, Green seems likely to play for most of the game and continue seeing steady targets.
Last week was perhaps Green’s best performance yet, catching seven balls on ten targets for 102 yards.
I woke up to #ajgreen highlights 😆. Let’s go 🐐! pic.twitter.com/3zyXpTNXYL
— ZIM (@zimwhodey) December 14, 2021
That’s a game to build on. Kyler Murray clearly trusts the veteran, and with Hopkins out, it’s time for someone to step up as the Cardinals work to win the NFC West.
I believe that starts with Green, and he has a soft Week 15 opponent to get things started.
BetPrep Historical Trend
You should be navigating to BetPrep when you begin studying the next week’s slate of games, and it’s there I found a historical trend that locked this bet in.
AJ Green’s page has one trend that dates back years, and considering the consistent career he’s had; I trust this quite a bit:
Caught for 60+ receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 (80%) games when he had at least 90 receiving yards last game. (avg. 72.2 per gm)
I expect a big Week 15 from AJ Green and am betting his over for receiving yards confidently.
Good luck this weekend! For more on the NFL, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.