For most of us who engaged in Kentucky Derby betting, Saturday’s result didn’t pad the bank account one iota. Rich Strike, an 80/1 long shot, wasn’t even in the field until Friday. But he stormed from the inside in the home stretch to shock race favorites Epicenter and Zandon.
Epicenter finished second and Zandon third in one of the biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history.
Props.com checked in on the aftermath of Kentucky Derby betting, in both the pari-mutuel and fixed-odds markets.
Rich Strike A Gold Strike For Bettors
Rich Strike went off at 80/1 in the pari-mutuel market, the longest odds on the board. His stunning victory was the second-biggest upset in Kentucky Derby history. In 1913, Donerail went off at 91/1 and topped the field.
The massive underdog tracked down 4/1 favorite Epicenter and 6/1 co-third choice Zandon in the final few lengths. Simplification, who closed 35/1, finished fourth.
A $1 superfecta — picking the top four horses in order — paid out a hefty $321,000, and there was $14.8 million in the superfecta pari-mutuel pool. That means there could be as many as 46 winning tickets. But those tickets represent even less than a drop in the bucket when it comes to Kentucky Derby betting, easily the most-bet race every year.
As Horse Racing Nation’s Ed DeRosa noted, it’s been a while since any Grade 1 race saw such an upset.
The last time a horse whose odds were at least 80-to-1 won a Grade 1 race also happened @churchilldowns when Seek Gold won the 2006 Stephen Foster at 91.7-to-1. Before that it was Arcangues in the 1993 @breederscup Classic.
— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) May 8, 2022
DeRosa noted that, so far this year, the longest shot on the board in any race with 12 or more starters was 0-175. Make that 1-175, with the victory coming in horse racing’s biggest spectacle, no less.
With such a long shot coming in, even smaller pari-mutuel plays netted relatively big money. Like this one, for example, from Dave Sharapan, who co-hosts Props.com’s Bostonian vs. The Book podcast and turned $180 into $7,400 (and forgive the language, please):
Story time from the book:
You know, Nobody Knows Shit
But sometimes, you really get it right or you really get lucky in the book.
Hit the ALL button on top for the first time ever. Wore a Derby hat.
Like Trotter said..
“We are having a very good day!” pic.twitter.com/mdEczL8QDV
— Sportsbook Consigliere (@SportsbkConsig) May 8, 2022
And this bet that returned even more than that, on just a $12 wager:
I got the exacta on a $12 bet, thank you! Just missed the tri.
— Sally Cruikshank (@funonmars) May 8, 2022
That bet netted $8,200. And a BetMGM Nevada customer pulled off an unusual win that could just as easily have been a loss, even with a winning ticket. The bettor placed a boxed exacta wager on the entire field, a bet totaling $760. Had Epicenter and Zandon gone 1-2, the bettor would’ve technically won the wager, but lost practically all of the $760.
However, the bettor was more than saved by the 80/1 long shot and ended up netting about $3,300.
Bettors Beat Book On Fixed Odds
It wasn’t just pari-mutuel bettors making bank on the the big long shot. For the past couple of years, Circa Sports has offered fixed odds on Kentucky Derby betting. This time around, Circa risk supervisor and horse racing oddsmaker Paul Zilm had the book in a good position.
About the only thing that could foul it up? A massive upset, as public bettors love rolling in on Derby Day and betting a little to win a lot on long shots. Like, say, the longest shot in the field.
“We went as high as 200/1 on Rich Strike, and took a little action there,” Zilm said, while noting Rich Strike spent most of Saturday between 100/1 and 150/1. “There were plenty of long-shot players out there. We took a lot of bets in the last hour, $50 here, $100 there, $25, etc. It adds up fast.”
The highly unexpected victor made winners of bettors, and Circa was a small loser on the day.
“We were booked to win to seven of the top eight betting favorites. It just didn’t go our way,” Zilm said. “Props to those who cashed. This should make for an interesting Preakness in two weeks.”
