Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA betting props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA betting props from Wednesday’s slate of nine games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2 p.m. ET Dec. 1.
Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokić
The Prop: 45.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Orlando)
The Odds: Over -110/Under -115
There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes … and Jokić eclipsing tonight’s 45.5 total.
Why such confidence, especially since The Joker recently returned from a four-game absence? Here’s why:
— Jokić has amassed more than 45-plus points/rebounds/assists in each of his last six games. The breakdown: 46, 47, 57, 46, 51 and 50, good for a per-game average of 45.5.
— Jokić has racked up at least 46 points/rebounds/assists in all five of his games against Eastern Conference foes this season. That includes Monday’s effort of 24 points, 15 boards and seven assists in a 120-111 win at Miami, Jokić’s first game back after missing the previous four. He’s averaging 25.0 points, 15.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists against Eastern Conference competition.
— Through 15 games, Jokić already has 11 double-doubles. In fact, his overall numbers — 26.2 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 6.4 assists — are on par with last year’s MVP production.
Jokić had Tuesday off after logging 32-plus minutes at Miami.
Related: New to NBA betting props? Check out our complete NBA Prop Betting Guide.
Minnesota Timberwolves At Washington Wizards
The Prop: Timberwolves +1.5, first quarter
The Odds: Timberwolves -115/Wizards -105
The Timberwolves have won three of their last five road games, but they trailed after the first quarter four times, with respective deficits of 2, 1, 6 and 7 points. The lone first-quarter lead: 35-20 at Philadelphia on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Wizards are 4-0-1 in the first quarter in their last five home games. Those opening-quarter advantages have been slim, though, as Washington led by 1, 1, 2 and 4 points.
Despite its recent first-quarter slump, Minnesota is still 12-9 ATS in opening-quarter action this season, while ranking fourth overall in first-quarter scoring (29.0 points per game). Washington is 11-9-1 ATS in the first 12 minutes, despite ranking just 17th in points scored.
Both teams have been idle since Monday. The Wolves begin a two-game road trip tonight, whereas the Wizards return home following a road swing of four games in six nights.
Indiana Pacers: SG Malcolm Brogdon
The Prop: 2.5 made three-pointers (vs. Atlanta)
The Odds: Over +120/Under -155
At first glance, it seems surprising the odds on this prop aren’t closer to even-money, based on recent results. After all, Brogdon buried 18 of 45 three-pointers (40 percent) in his last seven games. Also, the Hawks rank 22nd overall in three-pointers allowed (12.9 per game).
Then again, the Pacers’ young star scored 16 or fewer points in five of those seven contests, and in 18 games this season he’s shooting just 33.3 percent from beyond the arc.
Also, in his last five matchups with the Hawks going back to January 2019, Brodgon drained just 4 of 18 three-pointers, never once eclipsing this prop number. Finally, Brogdon has made more than two three-pointers just five times all season — and on three occasions he landed on exactly three triples.
Brogdon had Tuesday off after logging 40-plus minutes on Monday in Minnesota.
Philadelphia 76ers: C Joel Embiid
The Prop: 10.5 rebounds (at Boston)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -120
Embiid, who is averaging 10.3 boards for the season, has beaten this prop in each of his last three games, posting rebounding totals of 16, 14 and 13.
On Wednesday, Philly’s All-Star runs up against a Celtics squad that ranks just 17th in field-goal efficiency (43.5 percent), and 19th in three-point shooting (32.0 percent). If those shooting woes persist in this one, Embiid should have plenty of rebounding opportunities.
As it is, Embiid has dominated the glass against Boston in recent seasons. In 12 meetings dating back to December 2018, he’s averaged 12.8 rebounds (and that includes a recent six-board clunker). In the other 11 contests, Embiid pulled down at least 11 rebounds eight times (and landed right on 10 three times).
Two reasons to be concerned that Embiid might fall short of this number: He recently missed nine games due to a COVID-related illness. Since returning to the court Saturday, he’s logged 45-plus and 29-plus minutes in two games.
Also, Embiid has corralled double-digit rebounds in only four of 11 games this season.
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers
The Prop: 219 combined points (alternate total)
The Odds: Over +125/Under -155
This alternate tally is four points higher than the actual total of 215, and it holds appeal on both sides of the ledger.
From an Over perspective, the Kings and their opponents have cleared this prop number five times in their last seven road games. The combined totals in those seven contests: 232, 253, 208, 236, 204, 278, and 229 points.
Sacramento ranks 12th in scoring (109.4 points per game), and has the NBA’s third-worst scoring defense (113.3 points per game allowed).
However, looking at this prop through a Clippers lens, the Under seems like the wise play. First off, Los Angeles has allowed 110-plus points only twice in 15 home games. Also, prior to Monday’s 123-104 loss to New Orleans, the Clippers and their opponents had combined for totals of 188, 216, 203 and 195 points in the first five games of a seven-game homestand that ends tonight.
The Kings are in a back-to-back situation — having lost to the Lakers at home Tuesday — while L.A. is playing its third game in four nights.
