The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props.
We have a pair of Game 2 matchups on Wednesday, starting with the Heat vs 76ers at 7:30 p.m. ET. There are injury concerns for both benches in that contest: Joel Embiid will continue to sit out for Philadelphia, and Kyle Lowry is doubtful for Miami.
The nightcap is an intriguing matchup between the Suns and Mavericks. Even though Phoenix triumphed in Game 1, most pundits expect this series to go the distance.
Overall, this should be an excellent night of NBA action, so let’s dive into our top NBA props from Wednesday’s two-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 11 a.m. ET on May 4.
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Heat vs 76ers Player Props
Miami Heat: G/F Tyler Herro
The prop: 18.5 points (vs. 76ers)
The odds: Over +100/Under -125
There’s some uncertainty surrounding Miami’s rotation on Wednesday. Lowry (hamstring) has been ruled out for a second straight contest while Herro, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin are listed as questionable. There’s a good chance most of those players suit up — this is the playoffs after all, not some meaningless game in March.
Herro landed on the injury report with a sprained left ankle. It’s not considered serious, but perhaps that will slow him down in Wednesday’s tilt against Philadelphia? Herro was aggressive in Miami’s Game 1 victory on Monday (25 points on 9-of-17 FGs), but that hasn’t been his role in the postseason.
The newly-minted Sixth Man of the Year has gone Under 18.5 points in 4-of-6 playoff games while averaging 14.8 points per contest in that span. In four games against Philadelphia this season, Herro carries a 15.7 ppg mark. Overall, the Miami wing has failed to reach 19 points in five of his last seven contests.
Add it all up, and there’s reason to believe Herro’s scoring will subside in Game 2.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our full NBA Props Betting Guide to get up to speed.
Philadelphia 76ers: F Tobias Harris
The prop: 2.5 assists (at Miami)
The odds: Over -135/Under +105
This line seems way too low, and we aren’t overthinking it.
Harris averaged 3.5 assists per game in the regular season, which is a full dime above this prop. So what gives? That’s an excellent question that we can’t seem to answer, as Harris’ assist numbers only get better the deeper we dive.
In four games against Miami this season, Harris is averaging 3.7 assists per contest — which is marginally better than his baseline. Like most key players, his minutes have increased in the playoffs as well. In fact, Harris saw 44-plus minutes twice last series against Toronto. If Wednesday’s game is close, there’s a chance Harris creeps into the 40-45 minute range. From here, the formula is pretty simple: more playing time = more chances for assists.
With Joel Embiid sidelined, the ball will be in Harris’ hands more often. How about we quantify that statement? Harris has a 21.7 percent usage rate when Embiid plays. That jumps to 28.5 percent in games without Embiid.
Needless to say, there’s value in taking Harris Over 2.5 assists in Game 2.
Suns vs Mavericks Player Props
Phoenix Suns: F Jae Crowder
The prop: 8.5 points (vs. Mavericks)
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
Crowder is an interesting case, especially when it comes to his scoring props. The Phoenix forward hardly ever creates his own shot, but he’s the perfect complementary player to assist-maestro Chris Paul and the pure scoring likes of Devin Booker. Playing alongside this pair of All-Stars often leaves Crowder with several wide-open attempts from beyond the arc. Here’s to hoping that’s the case again on Wednesday!
Crowder has scored nine-plus points in each of his last five games. He has completed that feat despite some poor shooting from 3-point territory. Across those five games, Crowder is shooting just 6-0f-22 on 3-pointers. That’s only a 27 percent rate for a deep shooting specialist that has flirted with 40 percent shooting from beyond the arc in recent seasons. In other words, that has to normalize at some point (why not now?).
It’s comforting that Crowder has been going Over 8.5 points despite lackluster shooting from the 3-point line. If Crowder is sinking his 3-pointers, this prop will fly Over the total with ease. If his deep shooting woes continue, then there’s still a chance Crowder gets to nine points — as he’s proven in recent games.
Phoenix Suns: F Cameron Johnson
The prop: 10.5 points (vs. Mavericks)
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
There’s plenty of volatility in Johnson’s prop totals, as his role has shifted throughout the season. He was asked to step up a little more when Paul missed several months in the regular season. Then, Booker was sidelined several games in the first-round series against New Orleans, promoting Johnson to a larger workload once again. Even though CP3 and Booker are healthy at the moment, Phoenix still needs Johnson to deliver.
Johnson, who finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting, has racked up 11-plus points in 5-of-7 playoff games so far. That success rate may seem inflated due to more usage with Booker sidelined, but Johnson stepped up for 17 points in Game 1 against Dallas. Mind you, Paul and Booker were both healthy for that outing.
Coming off the bench is a great spot for Johnson to keep scoring. He’ll enjoy more usage (and shot attempts) while taking the scoring baton from Booker at times. Johnson is averaging 12.5 points per game this season, and this is a nice spot to take him Over 10.5 points for minimal juice (-105) on DraftKings.
