NHL training camps are in full swing, and with it, a statistically significant uptick at the population level in Zamboni accidents. But that’s not what we’re here for, is it?
No, we’re here for another banner year in the National Hockey League, where everything new is old again: new old divisions aligned, new old 82-game schedule in place, new old Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs. It’s nice to see the timeless classics are back in style.
Let’s have us a little spin through 2021-22 season points totals, shall we? We begin with the Atlantic Division.
According to PointsBet USA sports analyst Michael Korn, there aren’t any surprises in the early NHL betting action. The Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning lead the way in terms of number of Stanley Cup futures tickets written at PointsBet. On the handle side of things, it’s Avs, Lightning, and Golden Knights. As for season point totals, betting on Colorado has been robust enough to push the Over to -140.
All odds are per PointsBet USA as of 11 a.m. ET on Oct. 5.
Tampa Bay Lightning
2020-21 season: 36-17-3 (75 points). 3rd in Central, won Stanley Cup
Projected points total: 106.5 (Over -110 / Under -120)
We begin with the two-time defending champs who, not coincidentally, are tied for the highest number on the board. You’ll note below a few other 100-point players in this division because those teams have the distinct pleasure of playing a bunch of games against three division foes with the lowest totals listed at PointsBet.
It’s true, the ’Ning lost the entire formidable Yanni Gourde-Blake Coleman-Barclay Goodrow line in the Great Tampa Capocalypse. Normally, this would be a recipe for disaster, but then, normally teams don’t still have Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Steve Stamkos.
In 2018-19, the last full season the league played, the Lightning notched 128 points. Over the last five seasons, Tampa would have averaged 110 points per season if you projected out their 2019-2020 and 2021 rates to a full season.
Toronto Maple Leafs
2020-21 season: 35-14-7 (77 points). 1st in North; eliminated in 1st round by Montreal
Projected points total: 106.5 (Over -120 / Under -110)
At some point, the Leafs have to break through and go to their first Stanley Cup Final since 1967, don’t they? Will it be with this squad that’s mostly unchanged since last year’s team? Goalie Frederik Andersen decamped for Carolina, while Carolina’s backup Petr Mrazek came north to play handcuff to top netminder Jack Campbell. Center Zach Hyman is gone, but forwards Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander are only 24, 24, and 25 respectively this season. Fellow forward John Tavares is an elder statesman at 31.
This group is talented, young, and can easily take steps forward. Which gives Toronto’s tortured fanbase an easy wait-til-next-year storyline to hang their hat on in the case of yet another playoff flameout. (For what it’s worth: The Leafs have never eclipsed 106 points in any season, topping out at 105 in 2017-18.)
Boston Bruins
2020-21 season: 33-16-7 (73 points). 3rd in East; eliminated in 2nd round by New York Islanders
Projected points total: 103.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)
Veteran center David Krejci is gone, and goaltender Tuukka Rask (hip surgery) is out until January or February (if he ends up coming back at all, as he remains a free agent). Boston signed Linus Ullmark to hold things down in net in the meantime. Other notable signings include left-wingers Nick Foligno, Erik Haula, and Tomas Nosek, the latter two in a bid to remake Boston’s roster as Golden Knights East.
The Bruins do still have defenseman Brad Marchand, so we understand your impulse to instinctively spite-mash the “Under” button on your app of choice. Just keep in mind: The Bruins tallied 112 points in 2017-18 and 107 points in 2018-19, the last two instances when the NHL played a full 82-game schedule.
Florida Panthers
2020-21 season: 37-14-5 (79 points). 2nd in Central; eliminated in 1st round by Tampa Bay
Projected points total: 101.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)
There was a time when being the second-best hockey team in Florida would be a source of deep shame. Now we all just have to bow to our new Sunshine State Ice Overlords.
Defenseman Aaron Ekblad makes his triumphant return after shattering his leg against the Stars in March. Center Sam Reinhart now dons a Panthers sweater after pouting his way out of Buffalo, and Florida also signed ageless center Joe Thornton (actual age: 42).
The Panthers have cracked the century mark just once in the franchise’s 28-year history, when they tallied 103 points in 2015-16.
Montreal Canadiens
2020-21 season: 24-21-11 (59 points). 4th in North; Stanley Cup runner up
Projected points total: 89.5 (Over -125 / Under -105)
Would the Habs have made the Stanley Cup final last year if they had played in the Atlantic the way the Hockey Gods intended? No. Is it weird having both Stanley Cup finalists in the same division this year? Sure is. Did leaving Carey Price unprotected traumatize die-hard Canadiens fans who still haven’t fully processed the Patrick Roy trade? You know it did.
The Habs did belie the “easy path through the North” narrative with a Corsi percentage of 54.5, trailing only the beastly Avalanche, which makes them an intriguing play at a low number here. Then again, Montreal has crossed the 90-point threshold just four times in the last eight full seasons.
Detroit Red Wings
2020-21 season: 19-25-10 (48 points). 7th in central; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 79.5 (Over -105 / Under -125)
The last time the Wings were north of 80 points was in the 2015-16 season. The good news is they were better last year, with 48 points (projected 71 over a full season) than they were after bottoming out two years ago. The team’s Corsi For was the worst in the league last year, so there’s nowhere to go but up. The bad news is, you know, the whole part about all those games against Tampa Bay, Toronto, Florida, and Boston.
Interestingly, this number opened at 77.5, but there’s been enough Over action to push Detroit’s total up two wins.
Ottawa Senators
2020-21 season: 23-28-5 (51 points). 6th in North; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 77.5 (Over -110 / Under -120)
GM Pierre Dorion declared the rebuild in Ottawa done. That seems ambitious after four dreadful seasons in which the team finished in last or next to last in its division each year.
If you find yourself buying what Dorion is selling just note: The Sens finished with 67 and 64 points in the last two full NHL seasons (and mustered just 62 in the pandemic-reduced 71-game campaign in 2019-20).
Buffalo Sabres
2020-21 season: 15-34-7 (37 points). 8th in East; missed playoffs
Projected points total: 69.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)
Last year’s team projected to 54 points if the season was 82 games. Pretty bad, right? Well, this year’s Sabres are worse by any measure, other than behind the bench where then-interim-now-as-permanent-as-the-job-gets-in-Buffalo coach Don Granato got the Sabres playing much better after the overmatched Ralph Kruger was sacked.
Granato leads a franchise that has cracked 70 points just three times since 2012-13. And unless he has a bead on getting Gilbert Perrault circa 1976 back in the blue and gold, it’s going to be another year of season ticket holders watching Bills replays to get them through April and May. And that’s before the team inevitably trades former captain Jack Eichel for pennies on the dollar.
