The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, August 10
Sean Manaea: San Diego Padres
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres | 4:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.74 ERA indicates
Manaea has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 6-6 record with a 4.74 ERA through 20 starts. His 3.88 xFIP suggests he’s due for positive regression, though.
Manaea has been as inconsistent as anyone in the MLB, making it difficult to predict his next game. He has posted xFIPs under 3.00 in 2 of his last 6 games, while also recording 2 xFIPs over 5.00 in that span. He’s generally throwing at an extremely high or low level without there being much of an in-between.
Manaea gets an interesting matchup against the San Francisco Giants today. They’ve been an average offense against left-handed pitching in recent games, ranking 15th in the MLB in OPS against lefties since July 16th.
Bottom Line: Manaea is generally a risky option, but this is a reasonable matchup in a pitcher-friendly stadium. He’s a solid option today, but he has the potential to blow up against most offenses.
Johnny Cueto: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals | 2:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.91 ERA suggests
Cueto continues to defy everything we know about pitching. He’s posted a 4-5 record with a 2.91 ERA through 15 games (14 starts). His 4.26 xFIP suggests he isn’t throwing at nearly that high of a level, though.
Cueto has recorded an ERA lower than his xFIP in each of his last 6 starts. Although some pitchers throw better than their xFIP generally suggests, this isn’t likely to completely beat regression for this long of a period.
Luckily for Cueto, he gets a plus matchup against a rebuilding Kansas City Royals team. They traded several offensive players at the trade deadline, and they’re struggling to produce in recent games.
Bottom Line: Cueto is due to get blown up at some point. This should be sooner rather than later, but I’m not entirely sure it will happen against as bad of an offense as Kansas City. They could get to him, but I wouldn’t expect this to be Cueto’s worst game in his next few starts.
Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.19 ERA suggests
Berrios struggled quite a bit through 22 starts this season. He’s posted an 8-4 record with a 5.19 ERA through 118 innings. He owns a drastically better 4.05 xFIP, though.
Berrios has been awful on the road in 2022. He has recorded a 7.50 ERA through 54 road innings. His advanced metrics outside of Toronto certainly aren’t good, but his 4.80 road xFIP sits nearly 3 runs better than his ERA.
Berrios gets a tougher matchup against the Baltimore Orioles tonight. They’ve found plenty of success at home, and they’re playing extremely well right now. It’s going to make it much more difficult for him to find that positive regression.
Bottom Line: Berrios isn’t a dominant road pitcher, but he’s going to see some positive regression. I’m just not entirely sure it’s going to come in a matchup against someone like Baltimore.
