Each weekday, Props.com selects a handful of NBA props from a busy night of action, then do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Props.com compared the top platforms to find that DraftKings Sportsbook has the most robust offerings for Friday NBA props. They also have a generous welcome offer for new members (see below).
With that, let’s dive into our top NBA props for Friday’s seven-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings updated as of noon ET on March 25.
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Minnesota Timberwolves: PF Jarred Vanderbilt
The prop: 7.5 rebounds (vs. Dallas)
The odds: Over -125/Under -105
Most people will turn their attention to the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 games tonight, but don’t sleep on this sneaky-good NBA matchup between the Wolves and Mavs. Both teams are part of a logjam in the Western Conference standings, with Dallas tied for fourth and Minnesota sitting seventh, but separated by just 3.5 games.
Minnesota and Dallas battled each other Monday, and the Mavericks came through with a tight 110-108 victory. As it pertains to this prop, Vanderbilt snagged eight rebounds despite playing only 15 minutes because of foul trouble.
If Vanderbilt can avoid the whistle Friday, he should be in great shape to grab at least eight rebounds once again. Fellow power forward Jaden McDaniels is sidelined with an ankle injury, while big man Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable with a forearm issue. That should translate to 25-30 minutes for Vanderbilt with plenty of chances to crash the boards.
Vanderbilt has grabbed eight or more rebounds in four straight games, with McDaniels sitting out each because of his injury. (No McDaniels means less competition on the glass for Vanderbilt.)
The books haven’t adjusted Vanderbilt’s line accordingly, meaning there’s great value on Over 7.5 rebounds.
Detroit Pistons: PF Jerami Grant
The prop: 3.5 rebounds (vs. Washington)
The odds: Over -135/Under +100
Let’s start with this little factoid: Grant is averaging 4.1 rebounds per game this season.
Sure, there’s -135 juice to the Over, but Grant just needs a typical game to cash that side of the prop. He doesn’t need to do anything special, just play his usual 33-35 minutes and snag four (or more) boards.
To that point, Grant has secured four-plus rebounds in six of his last eight games. Zooming out, Grant has gone Over this mark in 32 of his last 50 contests. That’s a cool 64 percent hit rate.
Even though Grant played small forward for the Pistons the past few seasons, let’s not forgot that he’s 6-foot-8, now playing power forward, and isn’t afraid to clean the glass.
The matchup isn’t too shabby either, as Washington ranks below average in rebound rate.
Golden State Warriors: C Kevon Looney
The prop: 6.5 rebounds (at Atlanta)
The odds: Over +100/Under -145
Does anyone have any Windex? We are spending a lot of time on the glass with Friday NBA props!
Dad jokes aside, this is yet another rebounding prop that is welcoming to the Over. Instead of paying extra juice (like the two props above), we get this one at even money.
Looney is averaging 7.6 rebounds per game this season, which is a full tick above this prop number. So what gives? Well, his playing time has been somewhat sporadic. But the Warriors should need his interior presence against Clint Capela and the Hawks on Friday. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 23-25 minutes seems like a plausible expectation.
And here’s a stat that should open your eyes: Looney has grabbed seven-plus rebounds in 16 straight games when he’s logged at least 23 minutes. To repeat: 16 straight!
If the Golden State big man sees adequate playing time — and, again, he should in this matchup — then we’re getting outstanding value on the Over.
Golden State Warriors: PG Jordan Poole
The prop: 23.5 points (at Atlanta)
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
Let’s stick with this Warriors-Hawks clash. Stephen Curry will miss his fourth straight contest, which means it’s up to Poole to do his best impression of the two-time MVP. He has been pretty good in that role, scoring 26, 28 and 30 points in Golden State’s last three games sans Curry. Poole even poured in 29 points against Boston on March 16, when Curry departed with a foot injury after just 13 minutes.
In fact, including the Celtics contest, Poole has scored 24-plus points in each of the last six games Curry has missed, averaging 29.3 ppg per outing.
Can Poole maintain the momentum in Atlanta tonight? It’s certainly possible, especially against a Hawks team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency to opposing backcourt players.
And at minimal -105 juice, we’ve got ourselves yet another great NBA Friday props value play.
Minnesota Timberwolves: SG Anthony Edwards
The prop: 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (vs. Dallas)
The odds: Over -110/Under -125
Edwards is a phenomenal talent, but he’s in somewhat of a cold stretch at the moment. The former top overall pick is a pure scorer who isn’t known for racking up rebounds and assists on any given night. Because of that, it’s going to be a challenge for him to reach 28.5 points/rebounds/assists, even if he’s putting the ball through the hoop.
Here are some trends screaming toward the Under:
- Edwards has gone Over 28.5 PRA in just three of his last 13 games
- He’s done so in only six of his last 21 home games
- The Mavericks rank fourth in defensive efficiency to opposing backcourt players
As mentioned earlier, the Wolves and Mavs played Monday. Edwards finished with 19 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists, falling short of this prop number by 1.5.
The biggest concern in rolling with the Under here involves the status of Towns. The Wolves’ big man is questionable, and if he can’t go, Edwards will see more court time. The good news: Towns has been questionable prior to the last three games but played in each.
Still,, keep an eye on the injury report and wager accordingly.
Charlotte Hornets: SG Terry Rozier
The prop: 20.5 points (vs. Utah)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
Rozier is a pure scorer, which is a good thing, seeing as that’s his primary role with the Hornets.
However, this prop number seems somewhat inflated. First off, Rozier hasn’t been getting much help in the free-throw department, attempting just three freebies combined in his last three games. That means to clear 20.5 points, he almost certainly will need to connect on his 3-pointers.
Asking Rozier to score 21-plus points off long jumpers is a tall task no matter the opponent. That’s especially the case Friday against the Utah Jazz, who field one of the best defenses in the league. Rozier has stayed Under 20.5 points in four straight games, and you could argue those were much better matchups against the Hawks, Mavericks, Pelicans, and Knicks, respectively.
Playing down in pace against a tough defense? It makes sense to bet on Rozier falling short of 20.5 points for a fifth straight game.
