After four days of nonstop college basketball wagering action, bettors still had enough energy — and, apparently, enough money — to dive into the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 odds market. There’s no shortage of compelling matchups in the regional semifinals, but a couple in particular stand out.
Atop the early action list is No. 8 seed North Carolina vs. No. 4 seed UCLA in the East Region. Many bettors also had an early opinion on No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Providence in the Midwest Region.
Multiple oddsmakers talked with Props.com about NCAA Sweet 16 odds and early action.
Anyone Finer Than Carolina?
Five weeks ago, North Carolina’s season was on the brink. The Tar Heels were coming off an embarrassing 76-67 home loss as a 13.5-point favorite against lowly Pittsburgh. However, since then, Carolina is 8-1 SU (and 7-2 ATS, by the way), and its latest victory certainly got bettors’ attention.
The Tar Heels blew all of a 25-point lead Saturday but regrouped to knock off East No. 1 seed Baylor 93-86 in overtime as a 5.5-point underdog. That landed UNC in a regional semi matchup with fellow blueblood UCLA.
Carolina cash quickly brought this number down at The SuperBook at Westgate.
“Early money for UNC, but Ed [Salmons] and I both made it higher,” SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said of he and Salmons — vice president of risk for The SuperBook — pegging UCLA a bigger favorite when this line posted Saturday night. “I made it -4, we decided to open -3.5, and now it’s -2. So we need UCLA for now. I think [the line] will go higher at some point.”
As of late Sunday night, the Bruins were a 2.5-point favorite in BetMGM Nevada’s NCAA Sweet 16 odds market — and it’s been all Tar Heels action early on.
“North Carolina has the most tickets and the most money so far of any Sweet 16 team,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said, before speaking specifically to UNC-UCLA point-spread splits. “Tickets are 2/1 in favor of North Carolina, and money is 5/1 on Carolina.”
Early Bettors Fire On Friars
The Midwest Region semifinal between Providence and Kansas also drew quick interest at multiple books. BetMGM Nevada opened Kansas as an 8.5-point chalk Saturday night and by Sunday was down to -7.5.
“Tickets are just over 2/1 in favor of Providence, and money is 2/1 on Providence, as well,” Shelton said, while noting sharp play on the Friars at +8.5. Providence has the second-highest total of point-spread tickets thus far, behind Carolina.
Beyers noted early activity on the underdog at The SuperBook, as well.
“We opened Kansas -8.5 and are now -7.5, off some Providence money and the market being a little lower,” he said.
West No. 2 seed Duke is in the very rare situation of being an underdog on the NCAA Sweet 16 odds board, catching 1.5 points at The SuperBook versus No. 3 seed Texas Tech. This matchup has proved attractive all around.
“Good two-way already with Texas Tech and Duke,” Beyers said of a matchup that was up a half-point from the Sunday night opener of Tech -1.
Other Noteworthy Numbers
Michigan is among a host of teams that weren’t expected to reach the second week of the NCAA Tournament. Four double-digit seeds reached the Sweet 16, including the No. 11 Wolverines, who have a Thursday night date with No. 2 seed Villanova in the South Region.
While Michigan was impressive in a comeback win over No. 6 seed Colorado State, followed by a come-from-behind upset of No. 3 seed Tennessee, Week 2 bettors aren’t buying in just yet.
“Tickets are 3/1 in favor of Villanova, and money is 5/1 Villanova,” Shelton said of early spread play at BetMGM Nevada, where ‘Nova is a 4.5-point favorite.
Friday night’s Midwest Region clash between Iowa State and Miami — both double-digit seeds, at Nos. 11 and 10, respectively — proved intriguing for SuperBook oddsmakers.
“We opened Iowa State -1. Some market agreement, and some disagreement,” Beyers said, noting he and Salmons were on opposite sides of a short number, too. “Ed thought Miami maybe should be favored, I leaned Iowa State. But at 1 either way, no one is stealing anything.”
That line went up Sunday evening, after Miami trucked No. 2 seed Auburn 79-61 and Iowa State topped No. 3 seed Wisconsin 54-49. The number jumped the fence over the course of the evening, to Hurricanes -1.5.
