First touchdown scorer props have become increasingly popular over the years, and it’s easy to see why. They are fun wagers that tend to settle quickly unless you are locked into an old-school defensive struggle.
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Below, we’ll run through our favorite first touchdown scorer props. Then, we’ll outline some strategy tips for this special type of bet, which could be helpful if you are new to this specific bet type.
So let’s start with the all-important question: who will be the first touchdown scorer tonight?
First Touchdown Scorer: Super Bowl
Here are our favorite first touchdown picks for this slate.
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Saquon Barkley More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+400)
Philadelphia’s bread is buttered on the ground. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Eagles were tied for the highest situation-neutral rush rate (53%) this year. Philadelphia has ticked it up to 55% in the playoffs.
They also don’t waste time getting to their game plan or veer from it in scoring territory. The Eagles have had a 50% rush rate in the first quarter this season and 47% in the playoffs. Moreover, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Philadelphia has had a 69.1% rush rate inside the 10-yard line this year and 93.3% on 15 plays inside the 10-yard line in the playoffs.
Saquon Barkley isn’t the only option they have on the ground in scoring territory. Still, he’s scored 20 touchdowns (18 rushing and two receiving) in 19 games this year and handled 44.0% of Philadelphia’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line. Barkley scored the NFC Championship Game’s first touchdown. He’s also scored five touchdowns in the playoffs and reached paydirt in 10 games this season.
Barkley’s matchup isn’t too shabby, either. In Kansas City’s previous six meaningful games (Week 14 through Week 17 and the playoffs), they’ve coughed up 135.8 rushing yards per game, 5.29 yards per carry, and six rushing touchdowns. The Eagles will almost certainly attempt to run it down the Chiefs’ throat, and Barkley can score from close or far to get the game’s scoring started.
Where to play: Saquon Barkley More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Xavier Worthy More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+1000)
Like Barkley, Xavier Worthy has the juice to score a long touchdown. Additionally, while he lacks the size to be an eye-catching target in the red zone, he has the wiggle to get open, and Andy Reid also loves to get him the ball on pop passes and jet sweeps. Worthy is a multi-faceted weapon, and Reid and Patrick Mahomes have utilized speedsters of varying skill degrees, ranging from Tyreek Hill to Mecole Hardman. Worthy is somewhere in the middle between them.
Worthy reached paydirt last week and in four of his past six games, and one of the outliers was when he played one snap in Week 18. While he scored a pair of touchdowns in the opener, he had underwhelming contributions early in the year before settling into a more prominent role later in the season. Excluding Week 18, Worthy has had at least 75 scrimmage yards in four of his past five games and cleared 50 in seven of his past nine.
Worthy has been Kansas City’s most utilized pass-catching weapon in the playoffs, too. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the speedy rookie leads the Chiefs in the playoffs in route participation (86.2%), target share (25.5%), first-read percentage (31.4%), receptions (11), receiving yards (130), and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (one). Worthy’s odds are too long to score the game’s first touchdown for the favored Chiefs.
Where to play: Xavier Worthy More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Longshot First TD Scorer
Dallas Goedert More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer (+1800)
Obviously, the Eagles want to run the ball early and often. However, Kansas City’s defense has struggled against tight ends, and Dallas Goedert is an above-average tight end.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards per game (70.1) and five receiving touchdowns to tight ends in the regular season. Goedert can exploit Kansas City’s exploitability against tight ends.
Finally, after the Chiefs repeatedly stopped Buffalo’s tush pushes in the AFC Championship Game, the Eagles might pull out a trick at the goal line and leak Goedert out instead of tush-pushing Jalen Hurts.
Where to play: Dallas Goedert More Than 0.5 First-TD Scorer | FanDuel Sportsbook
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Super Bowl content linked below.
- Super Bowl: Content Hub
- Super Bowl: Anytime TD Props
- Super Bowl: Top Player Props
- Super Bowl: Last TD Props
Where To Place First Touchdown Scorer Bets
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your first touchdown scorer needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to first touchdown scorer bets.
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Top Sportsbooks For First TD Props
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
- DraftKings Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet Explained
Player prop bets are linked to player production instead of team production. That can make them a bit easier for beginning bettors to digest, especially those with a background in fantasy football.
Typically, most player prop bets involve wagering on whether you believe a player will go over or under a specific number in a particular category. They can include things like passing yardage, receptions, and carries.
However, you can also bet on whether or not you think a player is going to score a touchdown. These bets offer different odds for different players, with the most likely players to score getting the shortest odds
You can read all my analysis about anytime touchdown scorers here.
If those props don’t offer enough upside for you, first touchdown scorer props take things to another level. Instead of winning your bet if your player scores a touchdown at any time, they have to be the first ballcarrier to cross the goal line in a given game. There can only be one first-touchdown scorer in every contest, so it makes these props significantly harder to win.
However, that added risk comes with added upside. You’ll get a far greater payout if you roll the dice on the first touchdown scorer instead of an anytime touchdown scorer.
Do Passing Touchdowns Count For First Touchdown Scorer Props?
Just like with anytime touchdown scorer props, passing touchdowns are not included in first touchdown scorer props. If the first touchdown of a game is a passing touchdown, then whoever caught the ball would be considered the first TD scorer.
However, that doesn’t mean that quarterbacks are irrelevant in first touchdown scorer props. Quarterbacks will run for more touchdowns than you think, especially as more athletic passers enter the league seemingly every year. 23 quarterbacks ran for multiple scores last year, with Jalen Hurts leading the pack at 10. There are some familiar suspects on the list – Hurts, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray each had at least five rushing touchdowns – but you don’t need to be a great rusher to score touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill was second among quarterbacks with seven touchdowns, while noted statue Tom Brady even had two scores.
Ultimately, quarterbacks were some of the most profitable players last year in any time touchdown scorer props. If quarterbacks are scoring more rushing touchdowns than expected, it stands to reason they’d be underpriced in first-touchdown odds as well.
What Odds Should You Expect With First Touchdown Scorer Props?
This depends on what players you’re looking at, but you’re going to get significantly better odds on first touchdown props than anytime touchdown props. For example, the Rams are opening the season by hosting the Bills on Thursday Night Football. Cooper Kupp has the shortest anytime touchdown odds at -160 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but that figure increases to +600 to score the first touchdown. In general, you can expect most of the top touchdown scorers in the league to be priced between +500 and +700 to score the first touchdown of the game.
Most of the other players who are expected to be on the field will likely be around +1000. Running backs will get plenty of love in this department – especially ones who tend to carry the ball near the goal line – followed by the rest of the receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks.
Then comes the real long shots. The depth receivers, second straight tight ends, and non-rushing quarterbacks will all be priced at +2000 or greater. The less that a player is expected to be on the field, the greater the potential payout if they’re the first TD scorer.
How To Deal With The Swings
Betting on first touchdown scorer props is a lot like playing large tournaments in daily fantasy sports. Your win rate is going to be low, so you’re going to have to handle going through stretches with no wins. That can be demoralizing for bettors.
The key is to maximize your upside when you win. That allows you to survive the downswings and preserve your bankroll. If you’re upping your bets every time you hit a first touchdown prop, you’re not going to be able to survive the inevitable cold streaks. Like most things in life, discipline is key.
First TD Scorer Strategy
Just like with anytime touchdown scorer props, there is no surefire way to guarantee a win on first touchdown scorer props. That said, there are some things you can do to greatly increase your win rate.
Pay Attention To Injuries
Simply being on top of the injury report is one of the easiest ways to get value as a bettor. By knowing which players are questionable, you can often pounce on lines before the sportsbook has a chance to react.
For example, if the starting running back is questionable, I like to have some bets queued up on the backup running back. If he’s ultimately ruled out, you can potentially beat the sportsbook for tons of closing line value.
It’s not a fool-proof method, and the sportsbooks aren’t dumb. However, there are at least a few times a year when unexpected news leaves them open. Make sure you’re plugged into the news – Twitter alerts for the top news reporters are the best source – and take advantage when you can.
Defense (& Coaching) Matters
One of the most annoying things about betting on first-scorer props is that you are occasionally powerless. Only one team gets the first possession of each game, which means there’s a roughly 50/50 chance that your chosen player will start the game on the sidelines. If the opposing team goes down the field and scores, your player will have zero chance of scoring the first TD.
That’s why backing a player with a solid defense makes sense. If they can keep the opposing offense out of the end zone, it creates more chances for your player to score the first touchdown.
Additionally, knowing which coaches like to receive the ball after winning the coin toss is another way to create some value. The vast majority of coaches choose to defer at this point, but new coaches enter the league every year. Finding one who prefers to receive the ball almost guarantees they’re going to start the game on offense, which is a huge boost for first touchdown props.
Know The Goal Line Stats
Not all red zone touches are created equal. For running backs, in particular, getting the ball inside the five-yard line is a great way to rack up plenty of touchdowns.
There are some ways to exploit this. Last year, Boston Scott was the most profitable anytime TD scorer in the entire league. He had just 20 red zone touches, which put him well behind most of the top runners in the league. However, 16 of those attempts came from inside the 10-yard line, and 12 came from inside the five. Ultimately, only 10 running backs had more carries from inside the five-yard line than Scott last season.
I’m not sure who this year’s version of Scott will be, but staying on top of the numbers can help you turn a profit.
For more on how to bet on the NFL, check out some of the resources from the Props.com Betting 101 library:
- What Is A Prop Bet?
- How to Bet on the NFL
- Guide to Parlay Bets
- Guide to Same Game Parlays
- How to Win at Live Betting
- Our Favorite NFL Draft Props
- Super Bowl Squares Guide
- Best Sportsbook Bonuses
