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Commanders vs. Bears Predictions, Odds & Picks – TNF Week 5

Sep 17, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) runs along the sideline during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
Image Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The Commanders are set to face the Bears on Thursday, October 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 ET while airing on AMAZON. Washington enters this game as 6-point favorites with the total set at 44.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Commanders vs. Bears predictions below.

Commanders vs. Bears Odds

  • Spread: Commanders -6
  • Total 44.5

Game Info

  • Date: Thursday, Oct 5
  • Time: 8:15 ET
  • Location: FedEx Field, Landover MD
  • TV: AMAZON

Bears Betting Trends

  • Over their last five games, the Bears have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 0-4-1 vs. the spread.
  • Across their three previous road games, Chicago has an ATS mark of 0-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 0-3 while averaging 12 points per game.
  • Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Bears have a straight up record of 0-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-4-1.

Commanders Betting Trends

  • In their last five games, the Commanders have an over/under record of 0-5 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Washington has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 25 per game. The team went 2-2-1 overall in these games.
  • Going back to their last three games as the favorite, the Commanders have a straight up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 0-3.

Can Chicago Stun the Crowd at FedEx Field?

Four games into the season, the Bears hold a 0-4 record. This has them 4th within the NFC North and 15th in the NFC. Looking at the Bears’ scoring margin so far, it currently stands at -15.5. This has led to an ATS record of 0-3-1.

The Bears hosted the Broncos in their last game but suffered a 31-28 loss. The Bears had a 3-point loss, resulting in an ATS push. They were 3-point underdogs going into the game. With an over/under line of 47 points, the game saw a total of 59 points, going over the set line.

Against the Broncos, the Bears ran the ball 31 times, with Khalil Herbert as the top rusher, gaining 103 yards. Justin Fields attempted 35 passes, amassing 335 yards and a passer rating of 132.

Chicago’s defense has come up with two turnovers so far this season. This figure has them 10th in the NFL. Heading into week 5, they are allowing 34.2 points per game and 383.2 yards.

Can the Commanders Pull Off a Home Win?

As they get ready to face the Bears, the Commanders carry in a 2-2 record. Within the NFC East, they are currently in 3rd place and are positioned 9th in the NFC overall. Against the spread, the Commanders have a record of 2-2. Their average scoring margin for the season is currently -7.8.

After dropping their last game by a score of 34-31 to the Eagles, they are looking to bounce back with a win this week. Despite the loss to Philadelphia, the Commanders did cover the spread. They were 9-point underdogs before the game. Totaling 65 points alongside Philadelphia, the game’s point total exceeded the set over/under line of 43.

Against the Eagles, the Commanders ran the ball 28 times, with Brian Robinson Jr. leading the team with 45 yards. Sam Howell threw the ball 41 times for 290 yards and a passer rating of 98.

The Commanders are 21st in the league in terms of yards allowed, giving up 352.5 yards per contest. Washington’s defense comes in with an average of 30 points per game allowed, which is 26th in the NFL.

Commanders vs. Bears Player Prop

With 24 targets, Cole Kmet is tied for the team lead and averages 4.5 catches for 47.3 yards each game. So far this season, he’s surpassed 31.5 receiving yards in three games, maintaining a median of 41.0 yards.

Although Washington presents a formidable challenge this week, having restricted tight ends to a mere 20.75 receiving yards per game, I believe the Bears’ game flow and Kmet’s significance in Chicago’s passing strategy will override the matchup. I’m confident he’ll exceed 31.5 receiving yards.

Commanders vs. Bears Predictions

Washington initially opened as 4.5-point favorites on their home turf. The lines have shifted in their favor, now standing at -6.

A key matchup to watch in this game is the Bears’ offense vs. the Commanders’ defense. Our projections have the Bears building on their most recent 471-yard performance on offense and putting together another solid outing against Washington, thus keeping this game close with a chance to win.

Quite frankly, I’m not sure the Commanders should be favored by 6 points over any NFL team. I like the Bears at +6.

The Pick: Bears +6 | -113 at Fanduel Sportsbook

More Commanders vs. Bears Picks & Props

Looking for more Commanders vs. Bears predictions and prop bets? Check out the following articles specifically tailored for this Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 5: