The Cowboys are rolling, and the Seahawks were crushed last week. Dallas is more than a touchdown favorite at home, setting the stage for a positive game script for the Cowboys and a negative one for the Seahawks.
The expected game scripts are influential for the three suggested Cowboys vs. Seahawks player props.
Cowboys vs. Seahawks Props: TNF Week 13
Editor’s Note: The following Thursday Night Football prop bets are listed at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Thursday Night Football Props: Week 13
Here’s a trio of Cowboys vs. Seahawks player props I like for Thursday’s primetime matchup:
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Tony Pollard is hitting his stride after an unimpressive start to his 2023 campaign. From Week 1 through Week 8, Pollard was Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) 37th-ranked runner among 50 running backs who toted the rock at least 40 times. Since Week 9, Pollard was PFF’s 14th-ranked runner out of 47 running backs who carried the ball at least 20 times.
Pollard averaged 60.4 rushing yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry and 2.55 yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A) in his first seven games before climbing to 61.5 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry and 3.62 YCO/A in his last three games.
Pollard can stay hot in a cushy matchup. According to The 33rd Team, Seattle has permitted running backs 127.0 rushing yards per game at 5.7 yards per carry since Week 9. Pollard should steamroll the Seahawks.
Where to bet: Tony Pollard Over 59.5 Rushing Yards | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
Seahawks QB Geno Smith Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Sadly, Geno Smith hasn’t built on his breakout 2022 campaign. Instead, he’s taken a significant step back. Nevertheless, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Smith has averaged 234.9 passing yards per game with a median of 233 in 2023.
The Seahawks have a pass-heavy offense and will probably be in a negative game script. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Seahawks have had the fourth-highest pass rate (66%) in neutral game scripts since Week 9. So, Smith should chuck it often in this game, even before the Seahawks are in a hole. As a result, he can clear the low bar of 222.5 passing yards.
Where to bet: Geno Smith Over 222.5 Passing Yards | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is unquestionably Seattle’s No. 3 wideout, trailing DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the passing-game hierarchy. Still, since Week 9, JSN has run 126 routes versus 138 for Lockett and 144 for Metcalf.
The rookie wideout’s improvement began before Week 9, too. While playing through a wrist issue early in the season, he had 13, 34, 10, and five receiving yards in his first four contests. JSN has had over 38.5 receiving yards six times in seven subsequent contests, averaging 49.1 receiving yards per game after Seattle’s bye in Week 5. Finally, JSN’s yardage and betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook are markedly better than across other sportsbooks, enhancing the appeal of the over for 38.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 38.5 Receiving Yards | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
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