The first NFL Sunday will kick off on September 12, and we’re nearly there. I’m excited to be here on Props.com, utilizing the awesome data from the fellas at BetPrep.com.
I’ll be breaking down prop picks all season long, and in my opinion, props are the best type of bet to pursue for football wagers. The reason is simple: there is so much data.
A player’s carries, targets, yards per attempt, snaps played, and more give us a pretty trustworthy source to build our bets around for the coming week.
Prop picks are all about volume and opportunity, with a sprinkle of past trends and quality of opponent.
BetPrep and Props have you covered, and we start the 2021 season with why Raheem Mostert will rush for more than 54.5 yards in Week 1.
Positive Trends
One of the many interesting services offered on BetPrep is a section dedicated to trends for a specific player.
They have filters for good, bad, and basic trends, and the ones for Mostert are overwhelmingly positive.
It’s important to note that this is a new season, so past trends have a bit less impact given offensive schemes and players can change.
Still, there’s a lot to feel good about as it relates to Mostert and his magic number of 54.5 yards.
Positive trends, courtesy of BetPrep:
- Ran for 55+ yards in 10 of his last 12 (83.33%) games when he had at least 5 carries last game.
- Ran for 55+ yards in 9 of his last 10 (90%) games when he ran for at least 50 yards last game.
- Ran for 55+ yards in 9 of his last 9 (100%) games when he averaged at least 4 rush yards per attempt last game.
This ‘last game’ refers to Week 15 of the 2020 season, the last which Mostert suited up for San Francisco.
He finished the contest with 14 carries for 68 yards (4.9 yards per rush).
That would check off all three of the boxes listed above, suggesting over 55 yards as a highly likely outcome.
Last Season’s Averages
Again, it’s Week 1, and player’s roles can change, but studying last season’s performance can still be a strong indicator of what’s to come this season.
Mostert, along with most of the 49ers team, dealt with injuries. The runner suited up for just eight games, but in those eight games, he averaged 13 carries/game and 65.13 yards/game.
Mostert eclipsed his total for Week 1 in six of the eight games he played.
Projected to be the starting running back for San Francisco, and healthy, the numbers point to Mostert hitting his prop total against Detroit.
Detroit’s Defense
Ah, Detroit, the final piece of the pie. The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season, ranked as a bottom-five unit by most reputable sites.
Detroit surrendered 113.55 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs last season, and now get a San Francisco offense much stronger than them.
All of this points favorably for Mostert. His over is one of my favorite bets of Week 1.