The Dolphins and Denver Broncos will meet on Sunday, Sep 24. Kickoff for the game is 1:00 ET and will be shown on CBS. Miami is favored by 6.5 points in this game, and the total is 48.5. Who do we think will come out on top? Keep reading for our top Dolphins vs. Broncos predictions and player props.
Dolphins vs. Broncos Odds
- Spread: Dolphins -6.5
- Total 48.5
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sep 24
- Time: 1:00 ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL
- TV: CBS
Broncos Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Broncos have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
- In their last five games away from home, the Broncos have a straight up record of 0-5 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 13 points per game in these contests.
- Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Broncos have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-0.
Dolphins Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Dolphins have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- Through their last ten home contests, the Dolphins offense has averaged 25 points per game while allowing an average of 29. Miami posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 6-4 ATS.
- Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Dolphins have a straight up record of 7-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
No Pressure for Denver as Away Dogs
This week marks the first road game of the season for the Broncos. In the previous year, they recorded a 1-8 record on the road. As they enter week 3, their overall record stands at 0-2. Against the spread, the Broncos have a record of 0-2. Their average scoring margin for the season is currently -1.5.
The Broncos had the Commanders as their opponent in week 2. However, the Commanders took them down by a score of 35-33. In addition to losing straight-up, the Broncos also lost vs. the spread as 3.5 point favorites. The over/under line for the game was set at 38.5 points, and the final combined total surpassed it with 68 points.
On offense, the Commanders finished with 23 rushing attempts, and Russell Wilson was the leading rusher with 56 yards. In the passing game, Russell Wilson threw the ball 32 times, accumulating 308 yards and a passer rating of 107.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos give up an average of 233.0 passing yards and 91.5 rushing yards per game. Looking at their sack numbers, Denver is currently ranked 7th in the league. So far, they are giving up 26 points per game and 324.5 yards.
Are the Dolphins Ready for a Home Win?
Having played two games, the Dolphins have a record of 2-0. This puts them at 1st in the AFC-East and 1st in the AFC. Miami’s scoring margin up to this point is currently at +4.5. The team comes in with an ATS mark of 2-0.
After their 24-17 win over the Patriots, the Dolphins will look to pick up another win in week 3. As 2-point favorites against the Patriots, the Dolphins picked up an ATS win. In the Dolphins’ latest game, the under bettors were correct as the teams totaled 41 points, below the line of 46.5 points.
Miami’s offense generated 389 total yards against the Patriots. On third downs, the Dolphins managed a conversion rate of 40%. Raheem Mostert led the team in rushing with 121 yards, while Tua Tagovailoa passed for 249 yards.
The Dolphins allowed 288 yards of total offense to New England. The Patriots threw for 200 yards on 42 attempts in the game and picked up 88 yards on the ground.
Dolphins vs. Broncos Player Prop
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is 264.5. Based on the odds, he has a 54% chance of surpassing this figure and his under payout is -116. Tagovailoa is ranked 8th among quarterbacks in passing attempts as he heads into the game. To date, he has thrown for 715 yards while maintaining a completion rate of 65.3%. Considering the Broncos” defense’s strong performance on third down this season, I’m rolling with under at 264.5 passing yards.
The Prop: Tua Tagovailoa Under 264.5 Passing Yards (-116)
Dolphins vs. Broncos Predictions
Miami initially opened as 5.5 point favorites on their home turf. The lines have shifted in their favor, now standing at -6.5.
Looking at the betting splits, it appears that the betting public and sharp bettors are aligned on this one, as 80% of tickets and 79% of the handle are on the Dolphins against the spread.
Coming in as the 6.5-point favorites at home, I like Miami to cover the spread. Miami’s offense is coming off a good performance vs. New England and should carry that momentum into this week’s matchup vs. Denver.
The Pick: Dolphins -6.5 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook
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