Here we go with our NFL Draft predictions, props, and best overall bets. The first round begins on Thursday, April 27 at 8 pm ET with the other rounds taking place on Friday and Saturday.
Five of our Props.com analysts were asked to find their favorite NFL Draft predictions and props a week prior to the event. The odds can move fast as new information comes to light, so be sure to double-check any line movements leading up to the draft.
10 NFL Draft Predictions & Props
These NFL Draft predictions were compiled on Thursday, April 20, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Will Levis: No. 2 Overall Pick (+300)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Will Levis No. 2 Overall Pick | +300 at Fanduel Sportsbook
There has been speculation for months about who the No. 1 pick would be, but that seems pretty locked in at this point. Bryce Young has canceled all of his remaining pre-draft visits, and he’s moved to a massive favorite across the industry.
Levis and C.J. Stroud were initially viewed as the top two quarterbacks in this draft, which would presumably leave Stroud as the No. 2 pick for the QB-needy Texans. However, that perception is starting to change. Specifically, a bunch of red flags have been reported by the media during the pre-draft process:
We have now heard CJ Stroud:
-Bombed the S2 test (which you can prepare for)
-Is hard to coach
-Ghosted Manning academyWhether it’s true or not, he is getting wrecked by the media. https://t.co/Y5zTYQyDhP
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) April 19, 2023
Add in the fact that OSU QBs don’t have the greatest track record in the NFL, and it’s easy to see why his draft stock is slipping.
That opens the door for a bunch of different possibilities at No. 2. There has been some speculation that the Texans might not even draft at quarterback with that pick, but that’s impossible for me to believe. The Texans have no prospect at the position, and if you have no quarterback in the current NFL, you have nothing.
Levis is the type of player that always seems to go earlier than expected on draft day. I think he should be considered the favorite to go No. 2 at the moment, but you can still grab him at +300 on FanDuel. That’s pretty tasty.
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Tyree Wilson No. 3 Overall Pick (+500)
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Tyree Wilson No. 3 Overall Pick | +500 at Fanduel Sportsbook
The Cardinals have the No. 3 overall pick, and they will almost certainly be going with a defender. Specifically, a pass rusher makes a ton of sense. They were one of the worst pass-rushing teams in football last season, and their top pass-rusher (J.J. Watt) retired in the offseason.
Will Anderson was considered the top defensive prospect entering the pre-draft process, and he’s probably the safest pick. However, like with Stroud, that perception has started to change. In Peter King’s “Football Morning in America” column, he said that he would “not be surprised” if Wilson ends up being picked ahead of Anderson. He also had an unnamed coach for a team with a top-10 pick saying that Wilson would be a “better pro” than Anderson. That’s enough to make Wilson an appealing value at +500.
Wilson also fits the mold of the typical pass-rusher in a Jonathan Gannon defense. He checks in at 271 lbs, which compares favorably to guys like Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham in Philly. Anderson is a more svelte 253, and he doesn’t have the type of frame that can easily put on weight.
There’s always a chance that a team could trade for this pick to jump in front of the Colts, who will likely be looking at quarterback at No. 4. If a team falls in love with one of the two remaining quarterbacks – in my opinion, Stroud and Anthony Richardson – that’s a definite possibility. However, if the Cardinals make the pick, I think Wilson is the most likely candidate.
First Cornerback Selected: Christian Gonzalez (+170)
Analyst: Spencer Limbach
Where to bet: First Cornerback Selected: Christian Gonzalez | +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The first cornerback selected prop comes down to Devon Witherspoon (-210) vs. Christian Gonzalez (+170). The third player listed, Joey Porter Jr, has +1800 longshot odds.
Most scouts believe Gonzalez is the better overall prospect. However, it seems like the Detroit Lions are interested in taking Witherspoon at pick No. 6. That’s why he’s favored in this prop.
However, the Lions have plenty of needs. There’s a chance they could even get into the quarterback shuffle if a signal-caller falls to them. The top running back in the draft, Bijan Robinson, is another potential selection for Detroit.
On top of that, there’s a chance Gonzalez goes sooner than No. 6. Witherspoon to the Lions at No. 6 isn’t a lock, and Gonzalez should be the first cornerback selected if that doesn’t happen. As I just mentioned, that could happen even before Detroit makes a decision at pick No. 6.
Second Quarterback Selected: CJ Stroud (-135)
Analyst: Spencer Limbach
Where to bet: Second Quarterback Selected: CJ Stroud | -135 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Earlier in the article, Matt LaMarca took Levis at No. 2. I can respect that for a +300 price. Strange things can happen. Sure. But there’s a far greater probability that things go according to plan. That’s why I’m laying the -135 odds for Stroud to be the second quarterback selected.
Bryce Young is a -1200 favorite to be the first quarterback selected. Then Stroud is next on the board. I have a difficult time believing that Will Levis or Anthony Richardson will be selected ahead of Stroud.
In my opinion, Levis is a candidate to slide in the draft, and it’s hard to justify taking a chance on Richardson’s upside when a game-ready quarterback like Stroud is on the board.
I’m not exactly sure who will take Stroud. He has the top odds (+125) to be the third overall pick. That implies a team will trade up to select him with the Cardinals No. 3 overall spot. The Colts have the No. 4 pick, and they need a quarterback.
Regardless of which team makes the selection, I believe Stroud will be selected ahead of Levis, Richardson, Hooker, and all the other quarterbacks not named Bryce Young.
Buffalo Bills First Position Drafted: Wide Receiver (+210)
Analyst: Josh Shepardson
Where to bet: Buffalo Bills First Position Drafted: Wide Receiver | +210 at Caesars Sportsbook
In retrospect, Buffalo’s first draft choices since 2020 haven’t been surprising. They haven’t used smoke screens to draft a player out of nowhere. Instead, they’ve selected players they’ve visited with before the NFL Draft in the previous three drafts.
They didn’t have a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft after trading it to the Vikings for Stefon Diggs. Their first pick was AJ Epenesa in the second round. They interviewed him at the NFL Draft Combine that year.
The Bills selected Greg Rousseau with their first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and he made a great impression on the coaches in their first conversation. And Kaiir Elam had a pre-draft visit with the team before they traded up to select him in the first round last year.
So, pre-draft visit tendencies should be considered heavily for Buffalo’s first position drafted prop. Walter Football lists meetings and visits for every team. Sam Hoppen used the meetings tracker to put together a useful chart of the top 30 visits for every team. The Bills have used six top-30 visits on wideouts, the most for any position.
Wide receiver was the betting favorite for the first position selected earlier this week but was overtaken by defensive tackle/edge. The Bills have used four top-30 visits on defensive tackles and edges combined, trailing only the wideouts visits. However, the line movement was probably the product of General Manager Brandon Beane acknowledging the lack of long-term options at defensive tackle on the roster. However, they don’t have to use a first-round pick at the position to get a long-term piece. Moreover, the same is true of wide receivers. According to Spotrac, Stefon Diggs, Deonte Harty, and Khalil Shakir are the only wideouts under contract for 2024. Therefore, I love taking advantage of the line movement and betting on the +210 line for the Bills to address a position of need with their first pick in the NFL Draft this year by picking a wide receiver.
First Offensive Lineman Selected: Peter Skoronski (+225)
Analyst: Josh Shepardson
Where to bet: First Offensive Lineman Selected: Peter Skoronski | +225 at BetMGM
Scanning lines was eye-opening for the first offensive lineman selected prop. Skoronski’s odds of being the first offensive lineman chosen were only +110 at Caesars Sportsbook, not far behind Paris Johnson’s -125 line as the betting favorite. This discrepancy already creates a desire for me to scoop up value.
However, digging deeper into mock drafts and big boards was even more encouraging. Johnson and Skoronski are essentially neck and neck in the mock draft projections. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, Johnson is projected as the ninth pick, and Skoronski is projected 11th. At Grinding The Mocks, Johnson’s Expected Draft Position (EDP) is 10th, and Skoronski’s is 12.2. So again, the gap between the two is narrow.
Yet, the big boards of a few notable pundits have the two linemen flipped. First, Pro Football Focus (PFF) has Skoronski as the eighth player on their big board, the first offensive lineman, and Johnson as the second at 19th. Second, Skoronski is seventh on The Athletic’s big board, and Johnson is 12th. Finally, Daniel Jeremiah has Skoronski eighth and Johnson 16th. In fact, Jeremiah also has Darnell Wright (15th) ahead of Johnson. So, a +225 line looks like a slight value for Skoronski as the first offensive lineman selected in this year’s NFL Draft.
CJ Stroud: Pick No. 3 (+125)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: CJ Stroud Pick Number 3 | +125 at DraftKings Sportsbook
This is somewhat of a “game theory” bet. I believe Stroud is the third (or fourth) quarterback on the board for both the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans. If that’s the case, he’s going to be available as the third overall pick. Here’s how it could potentially play out:
- Carolina selects Bryce Young. Houston selects Will Anderson. The Arizona Cardinals will then be on the clock without a clear-cut option. They’re a team that has several holes, and they can move out of this spot, obtaining several picks.
- Carolina selects Young. Houston selects Will Levis. This could create a run on quarterbacks, who tend to already get overdrafted. Arizona, who has several holes, could trade the pick for a king’s ransom.
- Carolina selects Anthony Richardson. Houston selects Young. Once again, it’s creating a run on quarterbacks, allowing Arizona to take advantage of other teams.
The only major downfall here would be Houston selecting Stroud with the second overall pick. If that doesn’t happen, a team will likely try to jump the Indianapolis Colts for their quarterback. It’s even viable that Indy trades up only one pick to guarantee they get their QB.
Chicago Bears to Select Jalen Carter (+380)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Chicago Bears to Select Jalen Carter | +380 at DraftKings Sportsbook
We’re getting an interesting number on Chicago here. First, I believe Carter would be the first overall pick if Chicago didn’t trade out of it. What does that mean? He should be ranked at the top of their board, meaning he’ll be their pick if he’s available.
Carter fell out of favor with several teams because of off-field issues. He also looked out of shape during the pre-draft process, and it could all come down on him here.
Carter is too talented to fall out of the top 10, but he could fall out of the top 5. This may be the most likely situation, as DraftKings currently has -130 odds on Carter over pick 6.5. If that’s the case, that means he fell past the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions, who are arguably the two most likely teams to draft him.
The two teams before Chicago but after Pick 6 are the Las Vegas Raiders and Atlanta Falcons. These teams aren’t overly likely to draft Carter, leaving Chicago.
It’s a very specific bet, but I’m willing to take it for the odds.
CJ Stroud: Pick No. 1 (+750)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: CJ Stroud: Pick No. 1 | +750 at Caesars Sportsbook
I’m still on the CJ Stroud train of him being the best quarterback in this draft. He has the best technical skills, the more accurate arm, and a higher floor.
It’s also worth noting who is coaching the Panthers. Frank Reich is known as the “quarterback whisper,” and you have to look at some of his past quarterbacks. Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan are all big-bodied pocket passers, and he fits the bill at 6’3” and 218 pounds.
We hear a lot of rumors about what teams are saying, especially as the draft looms, but if Carolina wants the success of a faster turnaround, they’ll pick Stroud.
First Cornerback Selected: Christian Gonzalez (+130)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: First Cornerback Selected: Christian Gonzalez | +130 at Caesars Sportsbook
Christian Gonzalez and Devin Witherspoon are the clear two best corners in this draft, and it’s been a debate on who will go first.
Gonzalez is the more NFL-ready cornerback in this draft. He has the size advantage over Witherspoon, which helps in press coverage. He can mirror his assignment’s route to where he rarely losses a step and will get physical to contest a pass. Those make him great in man coverage, but he’s also doing well in reading potential routes in zone. Lastly, he is excellent at tracking the ball and making open-field tackles.
Witherspoon does have the advantage of being the quicker of the two and keeping pace on vertical routes, but he doesn’t have the instincts and football IQ at corner that Gonzalez has.
