So you want some action on the opening game of Sunday’s NFL Wild Card tripleheader, but you don’t have a strong opinion on the side or total? It’s understandable, especially considering how the first Buccaneers-Eagles meeting played out on a balmy mid-October Thursday night in Philadelphia:
Tampa Bay won 28-22, the Eagles barely covered as a 7-point underdog, and the game fell just short of the 53-point total — all because Tom Brady took a knee three straight times with the ball inside Philly’s 10-yard line to end the game.
So rather than sweat out another possible point-spread or Over/Under nail-biter, why not wager on a handful of player props? Here are our five favorite NFL Wild Card prop bets for Eagles vs. Buccaneers. (Yes, of course we’re starting with a prop involving the most decorated quarterback of all time — it’s just not what you probably expect it to be …)
Odds via BetMGM and The SuperBook and updated as of 7 a.m. ET on Jan. 14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Tom Brady
The prop: 1.5 Total Rushing Yards
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
The Golden Boy isn’t just the greatest quarterback of all time, he’s also the greatest quarterback-sneaker of all time. So if the Bucs find themselves needing a yard to pick up an important first down in this game, don’t be shocked if Brady calls his own number. (More on this momentarily …)
For that matter, don’t be shocked to see Brady take off and scramble for a handful of yards if under duress. Sure, the 44-year-old signal-caller might gum his food and need twice-daily naps these days, but he did (somehow!) rush for double-digit yards five times in Tampa’s first 15 games. He also rushed for at least 2 yards in 11 of those 15 contests.
Then again, old-man river did tucker out in Tampa’s last two games (zero rushing attempts).
In 45 playoff games — forty-freakin’-five?? — Brady has rushed for 2 yards or more 21 times. But he’s only done so once since gaining 6 yards against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52 (February 2018).
Speaking of Brady and the Eagles: Back in Week 6 in Philly, Brady gained 3 yards on a rush up the middle on third-and-1 from the Eagles’ 9-yard line with just over two minutes to go. So he hit the Over on this prop that night, right? Nope. The three subsequent kneel-downs to end the game netted minus-2 rushing yards, leaving him with four carries for 1 yard.
Keep the kneel-down potential in mind when considering to play this prop!
Philadelphia Eagles: QB Jalen Hurts
The prop: 197.5 passing yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Back in October, the Eagles trailed Tampa Bay 14-7 after one quarter, 21-7 at halftime, and 28-7 with less than 20 minutes to play. So of course Hurts chucked the ball all over the lot and picked up a bunch of garbage passing yards in the fourth quarter.
Not.
Philadelphia’s second-year quarterback completed just 12 passes the entire night (on 26 attempts) for 115 yards. Hurts did pass for 236 yards in a loss at the Raiders the following week, but after that, he went five straight games without breaking the 180-yard passing barrier.
Hurts’ right arm did loosen up a bit down the stretch: He passed for 296, 199, and 214 yards in his final three games before sitting out the Week 18 season finale. But he put up those numbers against Washington (twice) and the New York Giants.
The Buccaneers did rank in the bottom third of the league in pass defense (238.9 yards per game, 21st). But they were stout over the final month, yielding an average of — ironically — 197 passing yards in their final four games (151, 206, 224, and 207).
In his 15 regular-season games, Hurts cleared 197 passing yards eight times — including the 199-yard game against the Giants and a 198-yard effort at Carolina in Week 5.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TE Rob Gronkowski
The prop: 5.5 Total Receptions
The odds: Over +110/Under -145
Pretty easy to figure out how oddsmakers landed on this number for The Gronk’s reception prop. He’s had six or more catches in:
— Exactly half of his 20 career playoff games (including his most recent, a six-catch effort in last year’s Super Bowl)
— Four of his 10 playoff home games (landing right on five receptions in another)
— Five of his 12 games this season (including three of six at home)
Gronkowski sat out his team’s win in Philadelphia in Week 6, part of a stretch in which he essentially missed six consecutive games. (He played briefly and had just one target in Week 8 at New Orleans.) However, the oft-injured tight end enters the playoffs having played in eight consecutive games, and he was particularly productive in the last two: seven catches, 115 yards at the Jets; seven catches, season-high 137 yards vs. the Panthers.
Philadelphia’s pass defense ranked 11th in the NFL (220.9 yards per game). On the flip side, the Eagles ranked 28th in completions allowed (24.1 per game) and were tied for last with the (gulp!) Jaguars in opponents’ completion rate (69.4%).
Those are the kind of numbers that bring smiles to the faces of a future Hall of Fame tight end and his future Hall of Fame quarterback.
Philadelphia Eagles: WR DeVonta Smith
The prop: 42.5 receiving yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama had what can best be described as a sporadic rookie season.
Smith finished with 41 or fewer receiving yards in eight of his 17 games (including five games with less than 30). But in the other nine contests, Smith amassed at least 54 receiving yards (including five games with more than 70).
Most discouraging, Smith petered out in the second half of the season; after eclipsing this prop number in seven of his first 11 games, he did so only twice in his last six.
Not surprisingly — given the fact his quarterback completed only 12 passes — Smith was a virtual ghost when the Eagles hosted Tampa in October (four targets, two catches, 31 yards).
On the bright side, Smith’s speed was regularly on display this season. In fact, among wideouts who hauled in at least 60 passes, he ranked eighth in the league in yards per catch (14.3). So if Hurts looks Smith’s way a good half-dozen times (and throws the ball accurately), there’s a good chance Smith beats this number.
But what are the odds that happens? Not great, considering heavy rain is predicted for Sunday morning in Tampa. If the forecast holds, the turf at Raymond James Stadium could turn to mush (which, obviously, could impact the results of all these props).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB Leonard Fournette
The prop: 14.5 Rushing Attempts
The odds: Over -140/Under +106
Let’s start with the most important factoid as it relates to this prop: Fournette, who left Tampa’s ugly 9-0 Week 14 loss to the Saints with a hamstring injury and promptly landed on injured reserve, has been practicing this week.
All indications are the bruising running back will line up behind Brady come Sunday. And seeing that backfield mate Ronald Jones (ankle) is doubtful, there’s no way Fournette will be out there as a decoy.
Fournette did tote the rock 19 times (for 113 yards) against the Bills in the last full game he played. And he had double-digit carries nine times during a 10-game span from Weeks 4-14. However, the onetime LSU stud had 15-plus carries only five times in 14 regular-season games.
Of course, one of those occasions was against … the Eagles. Fournette had a season-high 22 carries in Tampa’s six-point win in Philadelphia. Could he approach that number again, despite being somewhat rusty? If Jones can’t go and/or a quagmire in Tampa materializes, it sure would seem likely.
For what it’s worth, the Eagles were gashed for 171 rushing yards in their Week 18 finale against Dallas. But the game meant nothing to Philly (multiple defensive starters played little, if at all). It’s more apropos to look at what the Eagles’ run D did in nine games prior to the finale: They held eight opponents under 100 rushing yards and yielded an average of just 81.3 ground yards per outing.
