Here we go with our best college football bets for Conference Championship Week.
Each of our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Championship Week. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week, and we are up more than 10 units on that front so far.
Best College Football Bets: Championship Week
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
TCU -2.5 (vs. Kansas State)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: TCU -2.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
We get a rematch of one of the craziest games of the 2022 college football season. Kansas State got out to an early lead, as they were up 28-17 at halftime. TCU came back, outscoring them 21-0 in the second half to win 38-28.
These have been two of the most underrated teams throughout the season. TCU boasts an elite 9-2-1 ATS record, and they’re covering by an average of 9.7 points per game. Kansas State’s also found tremendous success, posting an 8-3-1 ATS record and covering by an average of 9.3 points per game.
TCU boasts one of the best offenses in the NCAA. They currently rank fifth in the country in points per play (0.562). That number also jumps to 0.592 at home. Conversely, Kansas State ranks 17th in the same category (0.485), although it dips to 0.455 on the road.
The Wildcats have found more defensive success, ranking 19th in the NCAA in points per play allowed (0.301). Once again, they’re slightly worse on the road, as that number dips to 0.329. TCU hasn’t been nearly as good, ranking 43rd in the same category (0.339). Oddly, they’ve been slightly worse at home, where they’re allowing 0.359 points per play on the season.
The key to this game could be the rushing attacks. Both of these teams rank in the top 50 of the NCAA in rushing play percentage. The big key is that these teams feature similar run defenses. Kansas State’s is slightly better, although we can argue TCU’s offense, specifically rushing offense, is better.
The other aspect of this game is the versatility of the Horned Frogs offense. Max Duggan’s quietly become an outstanding college quarterback, and TCU features several big-play receivers he can throw to. They’re an offense that is difficult to shut down for four quarters.
The major difference between these teams is that TCU has the ability to beat Kansas State in a shootout. I’m not entirely sure the same can be said for the Wildcats. If this game turns into a more defensive battle after they’ve seen each other earlier this season, I believe TCU has the experience to win late in the game.
Michigan -16.5 (vs. Purdue)
Michigan got the big win in The Horseshoe and earned their spot in the Big Ten Championship.
Before last week, you could say that if you limit the Wolverines in the run game, you have a shot, but J.J. McCarthy proved that wrong. We got the McCarthy we’d been expecting as he threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns in the blowout win against Ohio State. He had plenty of explosive plays, stretching the field and got to the Buckeye’s 15th FBS-ranked pass defense, and now he gets Purdue, who’s 12th in the Big Ten in passing yards per completion.
When you look at the Purdue offense, what jumps out are the explosive passing numbers, but when you look at them closely, it’s fool’s gold. The Boilermakers are 21st in passing yards per game, but it’s because that’s all they do. They’re sixth in passing attempts and 115th in passing yards per completion. Michigan stuffed CJ Stroud for 7.3 passing last week and will handle Aiden O’Connell.
Last year people wondered if Michigan could score against Iowa, and they went off for 42 points. They have a better defensive matchup, and their stellar defense will keep them contained.
LSU +18.5 (at Georgia)
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: LSU +18.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
Unfortunately for LSU, their loss to Texas A&M last week has taken them out of playoff contention, even with a win. That doesn’t mean they wouldn’t love to add an SEC championship to their resume.
The key for them is the status of Jayden Daniels. He exited the game against A&M with a foot injury and was seen in a walking boot on Sunday.
Daniels’ greatest ability is to generate offense through his legs, and this would hinder LSU if he couldn’t move around in the pocket or rush for positive yards. Georgia’s defense isn’t known for pressure in the pocket and are 93rd in sacks this season and this could benefit an awful LSU offensive line that has allowed 41 sacks.
The Tigers will have to take their shots over the top to catch the Georgia secondary off-guard and get a few big plays to keep it close. The Bulldogs have an incredible red zone defense, and playing conservatively inside 20 could leave them with field goals rather than touchdowns.
The Bulldogs are the better team, but that was the same case going into last year’s SEC championship, and we remember how that went down. The upset may not happen, but LSU will keep it close.
Georgia (-17.5) vs. LSU
Analyst: Matt LaMarca
Where to bet: Georgia -17.5 | -110 at BetMGM
I almost never bet on big favorites. It’s a dangerous game – you basically need to play perfectly to cover a spread this large – but these two teams are simply not comparable. Georgia has been an absolute wagon this season, making a tough SEC schedule look like a walk in the park. They started by demolishing Oregon 49-3 in their first game of the year, and they cruised to massive wins over South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee. They rank first in the nation in points per game allowed and 12th in points per game, which is a pretty lethal combination.
LSU has had a nice season, but their results aren’t nearly as impressive. Specifically, their three biggest games this season – Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Alabama – all came at home. Even so, they still got thumped by the Volunteers and escaped with a one-point win against Alabama.
The SEC Championship is technically a neutral site game, but Georgia should find the atmosphere in Atlanta pretty enjoyable. They’re also playing with zero pressure with their spot in the playoffs all but locked up, while LSU knows that a win could put them in playoff contention.
The public can’t resist grabbing the big underdogs in this spot, but the sharps are all over the Bulldogs. That’s caused this line to move from -15.5 to -17.5, but I still think there’s some value with the defending champs.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Matt LaMarca: 13-8-1
- Justin Bales: 10-11-1
- John Supowitz: 10-12