The Houston Astros are running away with the American League West and fighting for the best record in the American League. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox were favored to win the American League Central before the season. However, they’re 2.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians and in a three-team battle for the division that also includes the Minnesota Twins.
Thus, both teams are incentivized to keep playing hard, creating a potentially fun contest tonight. Obviously, it will be more fun for sports bettors to watch this contest and cash in on a winning wager. So, what’s the outlook for the game, and what are we suggesting as our best bet?
White Sox vs. Astros Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros (J.Urquidy) | -1.5 (+122) | -130 | O 8.5 (-120) |
| @ White Sox (J.Cueto) | +1.5 (-145) | +110 | U 8.5 (+100) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 am ET on Aug. 15.
Urquidy Has Been a Mess on the Road
Urquidy vs White Sox: According to FanGraphs, Jose Urquidy has had a rock-solid 3.85 ERA in 21 starts spanning 119.1 innings this season. However, his 4.52 xERA, 4.42 xFIP, and 4.26 SIERA have been considerably less impressive.
Additionally, Urquidy has been a mess on the road. In 59.2 innings in away games, Urquidy has had a lousy 4.83 ERA, 4.87 xFIP, and 14.1 K%. More alarmingly, according to The Athletic’s Eno Sarris, his stuff hasn’t been as good on the road.
José Urquidy, home: 115 Stuff+
José Urquidy, away; 106 Stuff+Other than Colorado, a home park shouldn't necessarily change the physical characteristics of a players' pitches. This is weird.
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) August 3, 2022
If you look through the thread, this isn’t a one-year outlier. Sarris mentioned that Urquidy had the Stuff+ discrepancy for three years.
White Sox Offense: Sadly, the White Sox haven’t been great shakes against righties, ranking tied for 20th in wRC+(96). However, they’ve been in better form lately. Over the last 30 days, they’ve been ninth with a blistering 110 wRC+.
In addition, they’ll benefit from a second notable split on Urquidy’s profile. Not only has he been worse on the road than at home, but he’s also been a punching bag for righties, coughing up a .351 wOBA. Thus, the righty-laden Pale Hose should shine tonight.
Cueto Is Due For Regression
Cueto vs Astros: Take your pick. No matter what ERA estimator you choose, Cueto has been fortunate this season. The 36-year-old righty’s 2.91 ERA has been lower than all of his ERA estimators. Cueto has had a 4.05 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, and 4.39 SIERA.
So, Cueto has been pitching above his skis. Since ERA estimators are more indicative of pitching skills than ERA, Cueto should be projected to pitch closer to an ERA north of four than one south of three. Further, his formula for success is a dangerous one tonight. Cueto has pitched to contact, striking out a career-low 16.5% of the batters he’s faced. Banking on the Astros hitting into outs might bite him in the butt tonight since they’re one of MLB’s top offenses.
Astros Offense: The Astros have been roughing up righties this season, ranking sixth in wRC+ (112) against them. They’ve also been cooking with gasoline lately. Over the last 30 days, they’re fifth in wRC+ (114).
Fortunately, they’ve also had success on the road. The Astros have been tied for seventh in road wRC+ (105). As a result, they’re a good bet to expedite Cueto’s ERA regression.
White Sox vs Astros Prediction
The Astros are justifiably favored tonight. They’ve been the better team this season, have the better offense, and own a bullpen advantage. Cueto has pitched better than Urquidy. However, the former is due for regression, and the latter isn’t as formidable on the road.
Therefore, the offenses should rule the roost tonight. The game’s total was 8.0 runs across sportsbooks overnight. However, it’s been bet up to 8.5 runs and even 9.0 runs at some sportsbooks. I agree with the action coming in on the over, liking the over for 8.5 runs at -120 on Caesars Sportsbook as my best bet on this contest.
The Pick: Over 8.5 Runs | -120 at Caesars Sportsbook
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