One week after the UFC’s first event in France, the promotion returns to the familiar T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. We have familiar fighters headlining this UFC 279 event as well: undefeated Khamzat Chimaev will fight legend Nate Diaz in what is being discussed as one of the most lopsided main event matchups in UFC history. Despite that, there are plenty of angles for our UFC 279 predictions, parlays, and best bets within that.
Tony Ferguson, another legend, returns for the co-main event after being knocked out by an all-time front kick from Michael Chandler in May. Something that excites me: the final three fights of the main card all feature welterweights. The 170-pound division perfectly bridges technicality and power, so the main card should really deliver.
UFC 279 Predictions: Betting Selection
In a sport as wild as fighting, I try to find an edge by using a predictive model that considers previous striking and grappling ratios plus average octagon time from official ufcstats.com data. I’ll be focusing on the main event and the third-to-final bout between Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez in this article. Tony Ferguson is just too unpredictable to analyze at this point in his career.
Below I’ll offer my UFC 279 predictions for those featured fights, but the model really shines in predicting a fight’s final numbers. Further down the article, I’ll share a way to bet on those through same game parlays (SGPs) — playable on DraftKings in states where available.
Khamzat Chimaev (11-0) vs. Nate Diaz (21-13)
Born in the Chechen Republic of Russia, 28-year-old Khamzat Chimaev allegedly started wrestling at five years of age. That rumor is easy to believe when you watch the now-Swedish fighter pick up and drop opponents wherever he wishes in the octagon.
Before his recent slugfest with high-ranked welterweight Gilbert Burns (ended in a close decision), Chimaev had finished all previous MMA opponents in the first round or very early in the second. His ability to choose between a knockout or submission set up by his dominant wrestling stirred up title fight talks after just his first few UFC fights. The fight with Burns taught us all that Chimaev can’t play with his food at the top level of the division.
Zero disrespect to Nate Diaz here. He has fought in the UFC and its precursor, the WEC, since 2004. Now 37, Diaz still brings his Stockton, California toughness to every fight. He has only been finished once in his seven late-career fights after 2013, and the stoppage was called by the doctor for too many cuts on Diaz’s face. During that stretch, he shocked the world by handing Conor McGregor his first UFC defeat back in 2016.
The die-hard Diaz fans are surely hoping he will deliver that same fate to Chimaev. For Diaz to have a chance, he’ll need to catch an over-aggressive Chimaev with sneaky long strikes or submission during the wrestling exchanges. Diaz’s submission ability should cause Chimaev to start with a stand-up approach. Because of that, this fight could be drawn out at least a round.
Chimaev vs. Diaz Prediction
Pick: Chimaev by KO/TKO (-150) | DraftKings Sportsbook
It could be while they’re standing and trading, or after some pummeling ground and pound. Chimaev also could overpower Diaz while wrestling and set up a submission of his own (+225).
Chimaev vs. Diaz Best Bet
Pick: Parlay the tilted Chimaev moneyline (-1150) with the pick from the next fight.
Again, look out for the projected numbers later in this article to see how to get better value backing Chimaev with a same game parlay.
Kevin Holland (23-7) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (16-2)
After a successful run in the 185-pound middleweight division that fizzled out against top contenders, Kevin Holland has made a lot of noise in his first couple fights at welterweight. An extremely tall and rangy fighter, he seems to have no trouble making 170 pounds and bringing his middleweight knockout power with him.
Holland, the 29-year-old who fights out of Texas, officially has one second-round KO and one second-round submission at welterweight. However, the submission of Tim Means in his recent June fight came after he wobbled Means with some punches. His next opponent, Daniel Rodriguez, is a career welterweight, but the fight will be fought at 180 pounds. Rodriguez is 35 now and hasn’t fought in a year. Holland claimed in a recent interview that Rodriguez’s inability to make 170 is the reason for the catchweight bout.
Rodriguez got into MMA in his mid-twenties after spending much of his early life in and out of jail in Los Angeles, where he grew up. He looks very technical for a guy with a street/prison fighting background, and his 6-1 UFC record speaks for itself. His only loss came via decision against Nicholas Dalby after a fight in which Rodriguez out-struck Dalby 83-50.
Holland vs. Rodriguez Prediction
Pick: Holland by decision (+200) | DraftKings Sportsbook
Both guys are tough as nails, and I expect a great mostly-striking battle where Holland looks a bit sharper and plays his range well.
Holland vs. Rodriguez Best Bet
Pick: Parlay Holland moneyline (-195) with Chimaev (-1150) as mentioned earlier | Parlay Odds -156 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The catchweight does raise some questions about Rodriguez’s preparation, and it is certainly possible Holland could finish him late.
UFC 279 Parlays
Now let’s transition to how the projections shake out for some UFC 279 picks and parlays from the aforementioned fights.
Chimaev vs. Diaz Parlay Picks
- Leg 1: Total Seconds: Over 299.5 (-185)
- Leg 2: Most Sig. Strikes: Khamzat Chimaev (-650)
- Leg 3: Moneyline: Khamzat Chimaev (-1100)
Parlay Odds: +100
The model projects the fight to make it into the middle third round, with 45.7 strikes landing for Chimaev and 23.1 for Diaz. Chimaev is projected for two takedowns with 8 minutes of control.
Including takedowns in the parlay hardly increases our odds, so I’m leaving it out with the possibility that Chimaev makes Diaz stand and box. Over 299.5 seconds means Diaz has to survive just one round with “Borz”. Diaz has never lost a fight in the first.
Holland vs. Rodriguez Parlay Picks
- Leg 1: Total Rounds: Over 1.5 (-200)
- Leg 2: Total Sig. Strikes: 100+ (-175)
Parlay Odds: -165
This fight is projected to go 1.7 rounds with Holland landing 60.6 strikes and Rodriguez tallying 52. The model projects 0.8 takedowns for Holland, but hardly any grappling otherwise.
As long as we get a drawn-out slugfest, this bet is almost sure to hit. The 100 significant strikes and 1.5 rounds are not so comfortably within the projection, but we’ll give these fighters’ chins the benefit of the doubt. Neither man has ever been knocked out in MMA.
