Tuesday Best Bets: One NBA Total, Two NBA Props

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) shoots past Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) during the second quarter in game three of the 2022 Western Conference finals at American Airlines Center.
Image Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Monday’s Best Bets went 2-for-3 yet again. That marks the fifth straight day with a 2-1 record. Sure, perfection is always the goal. But we’ll never scoff at a 66 percent win rate. In fact, we will be sitting on an island in the Caribbean by going 2-for-3 in perpetuity — our own island!

You know the old saying “two out of three ain’t bad”? In the sports betting world, it’s more like “two out of three is pretty damn awesome”!

Let’s keep the momentum with three Best Bets for Tuesday!

All odds updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on May 24.

Best Bets Track Record

Monday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 92-89-2

Bostonian vs. The Book: 27-29-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 25-35
NBA Props: 32-18
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-1
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Side: Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks forward Dorian Finney-Smith, right, leaps to try to block a shot from Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry, left, as he goes up to the basket with his right hand, on Friday, May 20, 2022, in San Francisco.
Image Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The bet: Mavericks-Warriors Under 215.5
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) has a familiar pick lined up for Tuesday’s Best Bet. The Mavericks are playing at home and staring down the barrel of elimination, which prompted Perrault to take the Mavericks-Warriors Game 4 matchup the Under 215.5-point total.

Why does it matter Dallas is playing in its home arena? Consider these trends:

  • Dallas is 35-12-1 to the Under at home this season.
  • The total was 217 for Sunday’s Game 3 in Dallas. Final score: Warriors 109, Mavericks 100.
  • Dallas is now 6-1 to the Under at home in the postseason.
  • The Mavericks ranked dead last in pace (98.1 possessions/game) this season.

Perrault believes the Mavericks will try to slow this game down as much as possible in hopes of knocking the Warriors off their rhythm. Dallas hasn’t always been successful with that strategy in this series, but Perrault is confident that will be the team’s mindset while trying to avoid a four-game sweep.

You can find the Mavericks-Warriors Under 215.5 at BetMGM.

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NBA Prop: G Jordan Poole (Golden State Warriors)

Jordan Poole #3 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after making a three-point shot against the Milwaukee Bucks in the second half of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on March 12, 2022 in San Francisco, California.
Image Credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

The prop: Over 16.5 points
The odds: -104
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Jim Barnes via NBA Props Tuesday

Game 4 could easily turn into a blowout. Either Dallas will go full steam ahead to prevent a sweep, leading the Warriors to pull up the reins and save their energy for Game 5 … or the Mavericks will come out flat knowing that their season is essentially over, and Golden State will cruise to victory.

In either scenario, Poole — the Warriors’ top bench scorer — should see plenty of action. He scored only 10 points in Game 3, but that came after scoring 19 and 23, respectively, in the first two games of the series.

Bank on Poole playing above-average minutes Tuesday night and take him Over 16.5 points at a price near even-money.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: G Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks)

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts against the Phoenix Suns in game seven of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Footprint Center.
Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The bet: Over 7.5 assists
The odds: -140
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

Kyle Lowry fell short of his 5.5 assists prop Monday, snapping BetPrep’s Best Bets winning streak at four. It’s time to start a new streak, and BetPrep is relying on Dallas superstar Luka Doncic to make that happen.

The official play is Doncic Over 7.5 assists in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. Here’s why:

Doncic has averaged 14.3 potential assists per game in the Western Conference Finals, which is the highest of any player in this series. However, that has only translated into 5.0 assists per contest in this series against Golden State. In fact, Doncic’s assist to potential assist ratio of 0.34 is the second-worst of any player in the Western Conference Finals.

That’s a long way of saying Doncic is feeding his teammates the ball in prime scoring opportunities, but those teammates have taken that ball and tossed up a bunch of bricks. BetPrep is counting on that changing Tuesday. It’s also worth noting that prior to tallying just three assists in Game 3, Doncic had recorded eight-plus assists in three straight home games.

You can find Doncic Over 7.5 assists (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook.

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