The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos for Thursday Night Football in Week 6 of the NFL season. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 12. Within the following sections, we’ll outline our top Patrick Mahomes prop bets for this matchup along with some interesting prop betting trends for the Chiefs quarterback.
Best Patrick Mahomes Prop Bet: TNF Week 6
Let’s dive into our favorite player prop for Mahomes on Thursday Night Football of Week 6 against the Broncos.
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5-Yard Longest Completed Pass (-114)
In two out of five games this year, Patrick Mahomes has completed passes over 36.5 yards. Given this, one might initially lean toward the under. However, Denver’s defense has been notably weak, and that’s why we are taking the over on this prop.
The Broncos hold the lowest pressure rate in the league at 13.6% and concede an NFL-high 8.7 Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A). On average, they allow 263.0 passing yards per game. A breakdown of the longest completions they’ve permitted each week are 21, 36, 68, 29, and 37 yards.
Notably, only twice have their opponents completed passes for more than 36.5 yards. Yet, in Week 3, the Dolphins managed two significant completions against the Broncos: one for 54 yards and another for 68 yards.
Considering these factors, Mahomes has a promising chance of delivering at least one completion over 36.5 yards against the Broncos.
Where to bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5-Yard Longest Completed Pass | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
More Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets & Trends For Week 6
The following section will outline a few interesting trends for Mahomes when it comes to his prop betting numbers in this Week 6 matchup.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdown Trends
- Threw for 3+ TDs in 1 of his 5 games this season.
- Threw for 3+ TDs in 2 of his last 7 games at home.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Trends
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Passed for 275+ yards in 2 of his 5 games this season.
- Passed for 275+ yards in 0 of his 2 games against a bottom 10 defense this season.
Patrick Mahomes Interception Trends
- Threw 1+ interception in 1 of his last 7 games against a bottom 10 defense.
- Threw 1+ interception in 3 of his 5 games this season.