The Ravens want to run when they can. So, an under looks good when considering their offensive tendencies. The Steelers will have a path of less resistance through the air, which influences the other two featured and correlated player props.
Ravens vs. Steelers Player Props: MNF Week 17
For a full list of Ravens vs. Steelers player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Tyler Huntley Under 169.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Tyler Huntley generated some buzz by flashing potential in 2021. However, he’s looked more like the undrafted quarterback he was during this campaign. Huntley had 187 passing yards in relief of Lamar Jackson in Week 13, but it’s been all downhill since then. Huntley has passed for 88, 138, and 115 yards in three subsequent games. Unfortunately, though, he was knocked out of the 88-yard effort early with an injury. Nevertheless, Huntley’s been overwhelmed as a passer.
In addition, the Steelers are a challenging matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are 10th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 10. They’ve put the clamps on opposing quarterbacks. Only Joe Burrow (355) and Sam Darnold (225) passed for more than 200 yards against the Steelers in their previous seven games. Huntley is ill-equipped to handle Pittsburgh’s stingy pass defense. So, I’ll take his under for 169.5 passing yards.
Where to bet: Tyler Huntley Under 169.5 Passing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kenny Pickett Over 191.5 Passing Yards (-114)
The Ravens suffocate the run. In fact, they’re first in rush defense DVOA since Week 10. They’re rock-solid against the pass, ranking 13th in pass defense DVOA during the same period. Still, Baltimore’s easier to beat through the air than on the ground, and cornerback Marcus Peters is out.
Ravens declare QB Lamar Jackson (knee) and CB Marcus Peters (calf) out for Sunday night's game against Steelers. It will be fourth straight inactive for Jackson. TE Nick Boyle (illness), DE Calais Campbell (knee) and S Geno Stone (hamstring) are questionable.
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) December 30, 2022
Sadly, Pickett was knocked out of the first game against Baltimore with a concussion. Yet, Pittsburgh still opted to lean into the pass against Baltimore. According to numberFire, the Steelers attempted 23 passes and 16 rushes by non-quarterbacks in the first game. Mitchell Trubisky threw three interceptions but also carved them up for 276 passing yards. Meanwhile, in Pickett’s previous five healthy games, he passed for 199, 265, 174, 197, and 244 yards.
Finally, the Ravens have allowed more than 191.5 passing yards to quarterbacks in four of their last six games, despite facing a lackluster collection of signal-callers. As a result, I’m taking Pickett’s over for 191.5 passing yards.
Where to bet: Kenny Pickett Over 191.5 Passing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
George Pickens Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
George Pickens isn’t a target hog. However, he’s a big-play threat. Since Week 10, Pickens had 16 receptions for 231 receiving yards on a 13.7% Target Share and 304 Air Yards on Pickett’s 168 passes. Further, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Pickens had a 15.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in his previous seven games.
Conversely, the Ravens have allowed nine completions on 16 passes (56.3%) that traveled at least 20 Air Yards since Week 10, and Pickens caught both deep passes Trubisky directed the rookie’s way in Week 14 for 67 yards. Thus, Pickens is tailor-made for the matchup against his AFC North foe. Moreover, per Football Outsiders, No. 2 wideouts have averaged the fourth-most receiving yards per game (59.8) against the Ravens this year.
Pickens is also in a groove. He’s had at least 53 receiving yards in his previous three games and five of his last six. As a result, Pickens’ yardage prop looks way too low, and hopping on the over is exciting. Heck, Pickens’ big-play ability could result in a single reception pushing him over his yardage prop.
Where to bet: George Pickens Over 35.5 Receiving Yards | -117 at Caesars Sportsbook