The Timberwolves are set to face the Denver Nuggets on Friday, May 10. The game is scheduled for 9:30 ET while airing on ESPN. Minnesota enters this game as 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 205. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions below.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds
- Spread: Timberwolves -4.5
- Total 205
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Game Info
- Date: Friday, May 10
- Time: 9:30 ET
- Location: Target Center, Minneapolis MN
- TV: ESPN
Nuggets Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
- Across their ten previous road games, Denver has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 112 points per game.
- Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Denver has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 4-6 straight up.
Timberwolves Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Timberwolves have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- In their last three home games, Minnesota has averaged 111 points per game while allowing 98. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
- The Timberwolves have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
Minnesota picked up a 26-point win over the Nuggets in the most recent game of this series. The Timberwolves were 7-point underdogs heading into the game, and they easily covered the spread. Minnesota was especially good on defense in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Nuggets 33-15. The game also fell 23.5 points short of the over/under line of 209.5 points.
The Timberwolves held the Nuggets to just 34.9% shooting from the field, and Denver made just nine threes. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns both finished with 27 points for the Timberwolves. Edwards shot 64.7% from the field, and Towns knocked down three threes. Aaron Gordon led the Nuggets with 20 points.
Are the Nuggets Ready for a Road Win?
Today, the Nuggets are looking to snap a two-game losing streak after losing to the Timberwolves in their most recent game by a score of 106-80. The Nuggets were favored by 7 points in that game, and the loss dropped their record to 57-25 for the season, which is 2nd in the Western Conference.
In terms of their ATS record, the Nuggets are 40-47 for the season and have failed to cover the spread in their last four games. On the road, they are 18-24 ATS compared to 22-23 ATS at home.
As underdogs, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 5-6 and have covered the spread in three straight games. Today, they are 4.5-point underdogs and have gone 6-5 ATS as underdogs this season.
Denver has seen the under hit in three straight games, and their O/U record for the season is 35-52-2. This year, their games have averaged 223.3 points per game compared to today’s O/U line of 205.
This season, Nikola Jokic is averaging 26 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 9.8 assists in his last five games. Overall, he has hit 35.9% of his threes. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 20.4 points per game in his last five games while hitting 42.1% of his threes. Jamal Murray is averaging 20.2 points and 5.4 assists in his last five games, but he shot just 37.5% from the field in these games.
Denver’s offense is the NBA’s 5th most efficient unit, as they have hit 49% of their shots from the field this season. They are 2nd in two-point field goals made and attempted. The Nuggets have averaged 114.9 points per game for the season but just 111.1 on the road.
When it comes to defense, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the best in the league this season. They are giving up just 109.3 points per game, which is 6th in the NBA. On the road, they have been just as good, allowing 110.5 points per game, which is also 6th.
One thing that has been consistent for the Nuggets defense is their ability to defend the three-point line. On the season, they are 2nd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.2%. In terms of three-pointers made allowed per game, they are also 2nd at 11.1.
Over their last five games, Denver has continued to defend the three-point line well, allowing just 31.6% from beyond the arc. During that stretch, they have also been one of the better teams at not fouling, giving up just 12.6 made free throws per game, which is 5th in the league.
Taking a Look at the Timberwolves Chances at Home
Minnesota has won six straight games and is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. In the Western Conference, they have gone 37-15 and are 12-4 against other teams in the Northwest Division.
As the favorite, the Timberwolves are 49-16 this season and have been favored in 65 of their 82 games. Against the spread, they are 31-33 as the favorite and have an average scoring margin of +8.9 points per game.
In their last game against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves won 106-80 as 7-point underdogs. The combined scoring in that game was 186 points, and the O/U line was 209.5.
This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 45-43, and their games have averaged a combined 219 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 205 points, and the team has hit the under in their last two games.
In terms of ATS, the Timberwolves are 46-41 this season and have covered the spread in six straight games. At home, they are 20-23 ATS and have an average scoring differential of +8.7 points per game.
Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. For the season, they are the 2nd-best three-point shooting team, connecting on 38% of their attempts from downtown. Overall, they are 7th in field goal percentage. The Timberwolves’ offense is also in the middle of the pack in terms of pace, averaging 97 possessions per game.
Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves’ offense of late, averaging 32.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 53.8% of his shots from the field. Over his last five games, Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 54.2% of his threes and averaged 2.6 made threes per game. This has led to an average of 21 points and 9.4 rebounds in that stretch.
When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the best in the NBA, allowing just 106.0 points per game. They are also the top-ranked team in field goal percentage allowed at 45.0%. Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been even better, ranking 7th in field goal percentage allowed at 44.8%.
Minnesota has also been able to limit opponents from beyond the arc this season, ranking 4th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.6%. Over their last five games, however, they have given up a three-point shooting percentage of 37.2%.
Overall, opposing teams have scored less than their season average in 79.3% of games against the Timberwolves. They have also held opponents below their season average in made free throws in four of their last five games.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Player Props
A player prop we are looking at is Nikola Jokic and his points prop of 29.5.
Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -102 while the under is at -118. Our projections have Nikola Jokic going 12/20 from the field on his way to 30 points. Our recommended bet is take the over on his prop bet with a payout of -102.
- The Prop: Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 Points (-102)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Predictions
In this Nuggets vs. Timberwolves matchup, our point-spread bet is on the Nuggets at +4.5. While we project the Timberwolves to win 112-111, our recommendation is to bet on the Nuggets for the point-spread.
Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 205, and our model predicts the Nuggets and Timberwolves to score a combined 223 points. We recommend betting on the over.
The Pick: Nuggets +4.5 | at Fanduel Sportsbook