The Bengals are home favorites after snapping a two-game losing streak to open the year. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are entering this game on a high after upsetting the Bills in Miami last week. The spread is small. So, the oddsmakers and betting markets are expecting a close contest. How should that impact your selections for these Bengals vs. Dolphins player props? We’ll take a look and provide you with our favorite Thursday Night Football Prop Bets for Week 4.
TNF Prop Bets: Bengals vs. Dolphins Player Props
Here’s a trio of Bengals vs. Dolphins player props I like for Thursday’s game:
Joe Mixon Under 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Joe Mixon is the clear lead back for the Bengals. However, he’ll have his work cut out for him against the Dolphins this week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Dolphins are the fourth-best run defense. Football Outsiders is also impressed with Miami’s run defense, ranking them seventh in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
In addition, the traditional measures have painted the Dolphins as a stout run defense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Dolphins have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards (168) to running backs. So, again, Mixon has tough sledding this week.
Related: Want to see all the Bengals vs. Dolphins player props and odds? Click here to see the full list.
He also hasn’t been efficient. Mixon’s 2.8 yards per carry is the second-lowest mark among qualified running backs. Cincinnati’s lead back is also 38th out of 38 qualified running backs in Football Outsiders’ advanced metric, Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replaced (DYAR). So, the deck is stacked against Mixon having success on the ground Thursday. Therefore, betting on under 68.5 rushing yards for Mixon is attractive.
Where to bet: Joe Mixon Under 68.5 Rushing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Joe Mixon Over 3.5 Receptions (+135)
It’s not all doom and gloom for Mixon. He could have success through the air. Mixon has taken a commanding lead over Samaje Perine in the passing-game hierarchy. According to PFF, Mixon has run 87 routes this year compared to 35 for Perine.
As a result, Mixon has had 13 receptions on 20 targets. Now, he faces an opponent that’s been gashed by running backs in the passing game.
According to Football Outsiders, Miami’s opponents have chucked the ball 9.7 times per game to their running backs. And the Dolphins are 27th in DVOA defending running backs on passes. So, the Bengals would be wise to use Mixon as a pass-catching option this week. Cincinnati might also view using Mixon on passes as an attractive alternative to running him into the scrum against a stout run defense.
Therefore, getting plus money on his line is exciting.
Where to bet: Joe Mixon Over 3.5 Receptions | +135 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Tee Higgins Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Let’s roll with one more correlated prop. If the Bengals are intelligent and air it out regularly, then there are plenty of receiving chances for multiple playmakers. Further, this season, Cincinnati has already had a pass rate above expectations.
The overall leaders in pass rate over expectation (PROE) through 3 weeks:
1) Buffalo Bills
2) Kansas City Chiefs
3) Miami Dolphins pic.twitter.com/wS2moGol4O— Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) September 27, 2022
And according to my play-by-play query, the Bengals have attempted 63 passes and only 23 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in 2022. So, they seem to be keen on airing it out.
Tee Higgins is obviously an integral part of their passing attack. Also, it would be inaccurate to label him as a No. 2 receiver to Ja’Marr Chase.
Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase have recorded 562 professional football routes run simultaneously.
The results:
Targets
127 – Higgins
112 – ChaseAir yards
1,518 – Higgins
1,348 – ChasePPR points
252.4 – Higgins
236.7 – Chase— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 26, 2022
Instead, Higgins has been Cincinnati’s co-top wideout. After leaving Week 1’s contest with a concussion, Higgins has also been productive. In two subsequent games, he’s had 71 and 93 receiving yards, reeling in 11 receptions on 17 targets.
Finally, the matchup is nifty. The Dolphins are 29th in PFF’s coverage grade this season. Thus, they’re ill-equipped to slow down Higgins, and he should surpass his yardage prop.
Where to bet: Tee Higgins Over 62.5 Receiving Yards | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
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