The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props. We have three more contests scheduled for Thursday, all of which are potential elimination games.
The action gets underway with the 76ers vs Raptors at 7 p.m. ET, and the Raptors will be looking to stave off elimination for the third straight game. If they can pull it off, they will force a Game 7 back in Philly.
The Pelicans will host the Suns, and Phoenix will be looking to survive a tougher than expected first-round (without the services of Devin Booker). The Suns lead the series 3-2, but the Pelicans have given them much more of a fight than anticipated.
Finally, the day concludes with the Mavericks vs Jazz at 10 p.m. ET. The Mavs won Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead, but the Jazz will have the benefit of homecourt in Game 6.
Overall, this should be an excellent night of NBA action, so let’s dive into our top five NBA props from Thursday’s three-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 11 a.m. ET on April, 26.
- Huge Selection of Sports
- 20+ States
- Top-Rated App
Raptors vs 76ers Player Props
Philadelphia 76ers: C Joel Embiid
The prop: 27.5 points (at Toronto)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
There are serious questions right now concerning Embiid’s thumb. He is reportedly dealing with a torn ligament, which has had a serious impact on his scoring ability. His efficiency hasn’t been terrible – he’s shot 14-29 from the field over the past two games – but his usage rate has been way down. He’s posted a usage rate of 28.7% or less in each of his past two games, which is well below his season average of 37.2%. Overall, he’s scored 21 points or fewer in both contests.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Embiid’s scoring prop has tumbled all the way to 27.5 for Thursday’s Game 6. It’s hard to have a ton of confidence in him at that number, but I’m willing to bet on some positive regression. He’s still playing a ton of minutes, and he’s averaged 32.6 points per 36 minutes this season. If not for the injury concerns, this number would be at least three or four points higher. Let’s take the discount and #TrustTheProcess.
Toronto Raptors: PF Pascal Siakam
The prop: 5.5 assists (vs. Philadelphia)
The odds: Over -145/Under +110
The Raptors are looking to do the unthinkable to climb out of an 0-3 hole to start the series. They’ve managed to win each of the past two games, and they’ll be back at home for Game 6. They’re listed as approximately 1.5-point home underdogs, but they at least have a shot to force a decisive Game 7.
Unfortunately, the team is expected to be without Fred VanVleet for the second straight game. He’s currently listed as doubtful, and while that doesn’t carry as much weight during the postseason, it would not be a surprise if he’s sidelined.
If that’s the case, Siakam should see a significant boost in value as a distributor. He’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +5.0% with VanVleet off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 6.1 assists per 36 minutes. He’s also played at least 43.6 minutes in three straight games, and he should be able to eclipse 5.5 assists with that much playing time.
Unfortunately, Siakam’s assist prop is set at 6.0 on Underdog Fantasy. That’s a slightly less appealing number, but it still has plenty of value.
No Sports Betting In Your State?
Try Fliff instead!
Fliff is a unique social sports predictions app, where you can always play for free or pay to play. The app functions similar to an online sportsbook, but offers its sports picks in social and sweepstakes modes so you can play competitively for fun while winning real money in the process.
Fliff’s social and sweepstakes sportsbook is available to play in most U.S. states. For more information, check out our Fliff Sportsbook review or click “Play Now” in the link below.
Pelicans vs Suns Player Props
Phoenix Suns: PG Chris Paul
The prop: 11.5 assists (at New Orleans)
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
Speaking of distributors, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better distributor than Paul. He’s been doing his thing to start the series vs. the Pelicans, handing out at least 10 dimes in all five games. He did miss the over in his last contest by half an assist, but Paul racked up 19 potential assists in that contest (per NBA.com). In general, he’s averaged 19.2 potential assists per game during the postseason, which is easily the top mark in the league.
Devin Booker is also tentatively expected to miss Thursday’s Game 6, so Paul should continue to handle the ball a bit more than usual. He’s increased his assist rate by +3.1% with Booker off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 11.2 assists per 36 minutes. He should play closer to 40 minutes if tonight’s contest is competitive, so there’s value with the over on 11.5.
New Orleans Pelicans: PG Jose Alvarado
The prop: 9.5 points + rebounds + assists (vs. Phoenix)
The odds: Over -110/Under -125
Alvarado was a nice find for the Pelicans, and he has served a very distinct role in this series: Make life hell for CP3. He’s picked him up full court, gotten in his jersey, and basically served as a professional pest. If he can generate a few turnovers from CP3, that’s great. If he can get Paul to punch him in the face, even better.
That role has allowed Alvarado to carve out a decent handful of minutes in this series. He’s coming off 20.1 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 12 points and one rebound. Overall, he’s been above 9.5 points + rebounds + assists in three of the past four games. I’m expecting a similar workload for Alvarado in Game 6, and he’s proven he can provide some value at this number.
Jazz vs Mavericks Player Props
Dallas Mavericks: PG Jalen Brunson
The prop: 3.5 assists (at Utah)
The odds: Over +105/Under -140
Brunson has likely made himself a nice chunk of change in the postseason. The upcoming free agent has served as a quality No. 2 behind Luka Doncic all season, and he even led the team to two postseason wins with Doncic sidelined.
His assist numbers have taken a slight hit with Doncic back in the fold recently, but he’s still managed three and four assists over his past two games. He’s also averaged 6.0 potential assists per game over that stretch. Considering that this prop is available at plus money, the Over is worth a shake in Game 6.
