The NFL heads to London for the second week in a row. This time, our European friends will get the pleasure of watching the New York Giants take on the Green Bay Packers. Both teams currently sit at 3-1, but both teams are far from finished productions.
For the Giants, they’re dealing with a massive question mark at quarterback at the moment. Starter Daniel Jones is currently dealing with an ankle injury, but he was able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday. If he’s unable to go, the team could also be without backup Tyrod Taylor, who is currently dealing with a concussion. Regardless of who is at quarterback, they’ll be throwing to a group of receivers that has been decimated by injuries.
The Packers’ offense is closer to full strength, with Sammy Watkins serving as the team’s lone injury. However, the Packers still haven’t been particularly impressive to start the year, ranking just 21st in points per game through the first four weeks.
The Packers are listed as significant favorites in this neutral site contest, but that’s not the only way to get some action. You can also find some value in the Packers vs. Giants player props market.
Packers vs. Giants Player Props: Week 5
Here are three player prop bets I like for Giants-Packers:
Saquon Barkley Under 77.5 rushing yards (-115)
Barkley is officially back. The talented running back has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness in previous years, but he’s been as good as ever to start the new season. He’s racked up an average of 115.8 rushing yards per game – the top mark in the league – and a career-best 5.5 yards per carry.
On paper, Barkley draws an elite matchup this week vs. the Packers. Their defense has been vulnerable against the run to start the year, ranking 28th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA. Their average of 5.0 yards per carry allowed ranks merely 22nd.
However, Barkley’s workload could be seriously impacted by the game script. The Giants are listed as eight-point underdogs, which suggests they might not be able to run the ball as much as they’d like to. Barkley had just 14 rush attempts in the Giants’ lone loss this season, but he’s had as many as 31 carries in games where they’ve been winning.
The Giants’ question marks at receiver could also allow the Packers to gear up to stop the run. Barkley is easily the scariest threat on the Giants’ offense, so expect them to do everything possible to try to slow him down.
Where to bet: Saquon Barkley Under 77.5 rushing yards | -115 at BetMGM
Christian Watson Under 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Packers are begging for someone to step up and be a playmaker in the passing game, and Watson seemed like one of the most likely candidates. The team selected him in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, and he checks all the boxes athletically. He ranks in the 95th percentile or better in 40-yard dash time, Speed Score, and Burst Score per Player Profiler. He was also very productive at North Dakota State, posting a 90th percentile Dominator Rating.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to put his skills on display at the NFL level. He’s finished with nine receiving yards or fewer in back-to-back games, and the only game where he went over 16.5 receiving yards was when Allen Lazard was out of the lineup. Overall, he’s played on just 38 snaps over the past two weeks, and he’s managed just a 10.7% target share.
Most of his opportunities have come on designed plays. His average depth of target over the past three weeks is just 3.0 yards, so he’s been used primarily around the line of scrimmage. That’s not ideal for racking up receiving yards.
Add it all up, and he’s a solid under candidate vs. the Giants
Where to bet: Christian Watson Under 16.5 receiving yards | -115 at BetMGM
Romeo Doubs Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
While Watson has struggled recently, fellow rookie Doubs has shined. He’s blossomed into a focal point of the Packers’ passing attack, racking up eight targets in back-to-back games. He’s also been productive when targeted over that time frame, racking up an 81.3% catch rate, 7.5 yards per target, and two touchdowns.
Doubs’ underlying metrics also look good. He’s run a route on 95% of the Packers’ passing plays in each of the past two weeks, and he leads the team in targets over that time frame. He also racked up 32% of the team’s air yards last week, which was his highest market share of the year.
Doubs routinely earned raved reviews during training camp, and he has clearly started to earn Aaron Rodgers’ trust. That’s a big deal for a rookie wide receiver. Expect him to continue to serve as one of the team’s top options, and he should have another solid game against a Giants’ defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
Where to bet: Romeo Doubs Over 43.5 receiving yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook