Matt LaMarca

Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh Predictions & Best Bets — NCAAF Week 2

Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) stands in the pocket against the Purdue Boilermakers during the second half at Nissan Stadium.
Image Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

The Tennessee Volunteers will travel to Steel City to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers in one of the most underrated games of Week 2. Pittsburgh surprisingly won the ACC crown last year thanks to a down year from Clemson, while Tennessee had one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Both of these teams enter Week 2 at 1-0, setting up a fun showdown.

However, Tennessee was far more impressive in Week 1, and they’re listed as seven-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. That looks a bit funny considering Pittsburgh is the No. 17 ranked squad in the country, while Tennessee is currently outside the Top 25. Should you trust the oddsmakers or the AP poll in this matchup? Let’s dive in.

Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Tennessee-7 (+100)-250O 66 (-105)
@ Pittsburgh+7 (-120)+210U 66 (-115)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2 p.m. ET on Sept. 6

Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)
  • TV: ABC

Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh Trends

  • Pittsburgh is coming off a 38-31 victory over West Virginia in Week 1, failing to cover the 7.5-point closing spread.
  • Pittsburgh was 11-3 last season (8-5 against the spread).
  • Tennessee is coming off a 59-10 victory over Ball State in Week 1, easily covering the 37-point spread.
  • Tennessee was 7-6 last season (4-8 against the spread).
  • Pittsburgh beat Tennessee 41-34 on the road last season.
  • Ranked teams are 15-9-2 against the spread as home dogs against unranked opponents since 2005.
  • Tennessee is 14-22-1 as a favorite since the start of 2016-17.
  • Tennessee is 0-5 against non-conference Power 5 opponents since the start of 2017-18.
  • As of Tuesday, DraftKings reports that 71% of the spread bets and 78% of the handle are on Tennessee.
  • 69% of the bets and 88% of the handle are on the Over.

How Good Is Tennessee’s Offense?

Josh Heupel took over as the Volunteers’ head coach in 2021, and he immediately installed a high-powered offense. They ranked ninth in the nation with an average of 475 yards per game, and they averaged 39 points per contest. They went 7-1 in games where they scored at least 35 points, and they were 0-5 when they didn’t.

Tennessee showed no signs of slowing down in Week 1, albeit against subpar competition in Ball State. They racked up 569 total yards and hung 59 points on the scoreboard, with quarterback Hendon Hooker contributing four touchdowns.

The big question is can Tennessee keep up that level of production against superior competition? They feasted last season on the weakest defenses in their path – 38 points against Bowling Green, 56 points against Tennessee Tech, 60 points against South Alabama – but they struggled to hit those thresholds in tougher matchups. They scored 26 points or fewer against Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Georgia, which is a big reason why they finished just above .500.

Pittsburgh isn’t in the same class as the top SEC teams, but they’re very good. They have a couple of excellent defensive linemen in Calijah Kancey and Habakkuk Baldonado, who combined for 16 sacks and 25 tackles for loss last year. Tennessee’s offensive line is a bit of a question mark after allowing the third-most sacks per game in the SEC last year. Putting up big numbers against Ball State is one thing, but this will be the Volunteers’ first real test of the season.

Pittsburgh Survives By The Skin Of Their Teeth

Pitt did not deserve to win last week. They were outgained by West Virginia, and they trailed by a touchdown deep into the fourth quarter. If not for a miraculous pick-six by M.J. Devonshire at the end of the game, Pitt could very well be sitting at 0-1 to start the year.

However, it would be unwise to write off the Panthers after just one poor showing. They have a lot going for them this season, even after losing Kenny Pickett to the NFL and Jordan Addison to USC. It starts with an outstanding offensive line that returns all five starters from last year. That includes Carter Warren at left tackle, who will eventually be playing on Sundays.

Kedon Slovis also did nothing to quell the hype in Week 1. He was 16-24 for 308 yards and one touchdown against West Virginia, and the USC transfer passed for 30 touchdowns as a freshman. It’s possible that he may be more naturally gifted than Pickett, who didn’t break out until his fifth year in college.

Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh Predictions

This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with the total sitting at 66.0 points at rising. Both of these units should be able to put points on the board, but I have far more confidence in the Pittsburgh defense being able to get a stop when needed.

Overall, this feels like a massive overreaction to one subpar performance. Tennessee might be slightly better than Pittsburgh – even though I’m not 100% sold on that statement – but the gulf in talent certainly doesn’t warrant Tennessee being favored by a full touchdown on the road. Expect Pat Nurduzzi to continue to get the best out of his unit and grab the points in this contest.

Pick: Pittsburgh +7 | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook