Super Bowl props are now filling odds boards at sportsbooks from coast to coast, in advance of Sunday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
Throughout the week leading up to Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, California, Props.com will offer up our five favorite Super Bowl props for each teams’ skill position group on offense, as well as our most intriguing defensive, kicker/punter, and special teams props. We’ll also break down five game-specific props; best bets for players scoring the first touchdown; and even our favorite cross-sport props.
Yes, consider us your one-stop prop shop for Rams vs. Bengals. So be sure to check back all week for comprehensive and (we hope!) compelling Super Bowl 56 betting coverage.
Next up: Our top five special teams-related Super Bowl props.
Odds via FanDuel, DraftKings and PointsBet USA, and updated as of 6 p.m. ET on Feb. 9.
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Opening Kickoff
The Prop: Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback?
The Odds: Yes -108/No -118
The Rams (ninth) and Bengals (13th) ranked among the NFL’s top 15 teams in touchbacks on kickoffs during the regular season.
And during the NFL playoffs, Rams kicker Matt Gay (1 for 2) and Bengals kicker Evan McPherson (2 for 2) booted touchbacks over three of four combined opening kickoffs.
However, this is worth noting: In 2020, Cincinnati (73.4%) and Los Angeles (65.2%) ranked sixth and 12th, respectively, in touchback percentage. This year, both teams’ numbers are down, with the Bengals at 59.7 percent and the Rams at 63.3 percent.
What about the fact this game is being played indoors at SoFi Stadium? Well, going back Super Bowl 45 (Packers-Steelers in Dallas), there have been seven Super Bowls played in a climate-controlled environments. Number of opening-kickoff touchbacks: two.
Onside Kick
The Prop: Will there be a successful onside kick?
The Odds: Yes +1,600/No -6,000
Enhanced NFL safety protocols have completely changed the onside-kick dynamic in recent years. Two of the most significant rule changes that were implement to protect players:
a) All players from the kicking team must be equally balanced on both sides of the kicker.
b) Those players no longer can get a 5-yard running start prior to the kick.
The impact of these new rules: Whereas the onside-kick success rate was once merely negligible, now it’s virtually nill. According to The Football Database, during the regular season, nine of 56 onside-kick attempts were recovered by the kicking team — that’s a paltry 16 percent. And only one kicker (Detroit’s Austin Seibert) engineered successful recoveries multiple times in 2021.
Obviously, for an onside kick to even be attempted, the trailing team has to score late in a tight game. (Well, unless you’re Sean Payton, then you just call an onside kick in the Super Bowl for the hell of it.) Of course, attempting one and recovering one are two very different things. In fact, Payton’s Saints were the last team to do so, and that was 12 years ago.
For what it’s worth, the Rams went 0-for-3 on onside-kick tries this year, while the Bengals didn’t attempt one.
Kickoff Return
The Prop: Will a kickoff be returned for a touchdown?
The Odds: Over +2,000/Under -10,000
In Super Bowl history, 10 kickoffs have been taken to the house for touchdowns. Here’s the list:
Super Bowl 17: Fulton Walker (Dolphins) vs. Washington — 98 yards
Super Bowl 23: Stanford Jennings (Bengals) vs. San Francisco — 93 yards
Super Bowl 29: Andre Coleman (Chargers) vs. San Francisco — 98 yards
Super Bowl 31: Desmond Howard (Packers) vs. New England — 99 yards
Super Bowl 33: Tim Dwight (Falcons) vs. Denver — 94 yards
Super Bowl 35: Ron Dixon (Giants) vs. Baltimore — 97 yards
Super Bowl 35: Jermaine Lewis (Ravens) vs. N.Y. Giants — 84 yards
Super Bowl 41: Devin Hester (Bears) vs. Indianapolis — 92 yards
Super Bowl 47: Jacoby Jones (Ravens) vs. San Francisco — 108 yards
Super Bowl 48: Percy Harvin (Seahawks) vs. Denver — 87 yards
Now, from a mathematical likelihood standpoint, you can look at those 10 instances three different ways: 1) We’ve seen a kickoff return for a TD in just 18.2 percent of all 55 Super Bowls; 2) We’ve seen a kickoff return for a TD in 25.6 percent of the last 39 Super Bowls; and 3) We’ve seen a kickoff return for a TD in 29.6 percent of the last 27 Super Bowls.
Also, keep this in mind: Of those 10 kickoff return TDs, only three occurred indoors. Also, there have been 16 kickoff returns housed in the last two regular seasons. The Rams and Bengals combined for one of them (Cincy had one last year).
Anyway you slice it, it’s extremely unlikely that we’re going to get a kickoff return for a TD on Super Sunday (hence the exorbitant odds). Then again, it’s more likely than a punt-return touchdown, which has never happened in Super Bowl history.
Longest Punt Return
The prop: Which team will have the longest punt return?
The odds: Rams -140/Bengals +110
The stats certainly support the juice on this prop, as the Rams averaged exactly 4 more yards per punt return during the regular season than Cincinnati (11.3 vs. 7.3). The opportunities, however, favor the Bengals, as they had 36 punt returns, fourth-most in the league and nearly twice as many as Los Angeles (18).
But when it comes to lengthy punt returns, the Rams have the clear edge. They had two returns of 20-plus yards, including a 61-yarder. Cincinnati’s longest return this season? 17 yards.
In fact, while the Bengals had 17 more punt returns in the regular season than L.A., they only had 46 more punt-return yards.
What about the postseason? Not much has changed. The Rams have five punt returns for 79 yards (15.8 per return); Cincinnati has four for 48 yards (12.0 per return).
L.A. is the play with this one.
Distance Of All Made Field Goals
The prop: 120.5 yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
This unique prop offered by PointsBet USA is intriguing, because Super Bowl 56 will feature two very accurate kickers who have big legs and who — most importantly — get a lot of opportunities.
Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson and Los Angeles’ Matt Gay have combined to convert 79 of 88 field-goal attempts in the regular season and playoffs. That’s a scintillating 89.8 percent success rate. In the playoffs, McPherson is 12-for-12 (4-for-4 in each game), while Gay is 7-for-9. So in a combined six postseason contests, the pair has made 19 field goals.
PointsBet has both the Rams’ and Bengals’ successful field goals props set at 1.5, with juice to the Over on each. So if we assume both teams go Over that total, we’re looking at a minimum of four converted field goals. In that case, the average distance of each made field goal needs to be 30.25 yards to hit the Over on this prop.
Seems doable, right? Especially since the two coaches are more than comfortable sending their kickers out from long range. But what if Gay and McPherson only combine for three field goals? Then the average distance of each kick jumps to 40.3 yards to cash this Over. A bit more dicey, but certainly not impossible.
Bottom line: The only way the Under hits on this prop is if we see two or fewer made field goals. Given how often these kickers have been called upon — and how reliable they’ve been — we’d be mildly surprised if that happened. Play the Over.
