Props Projection: North Carolina QB Sam Howell

Image Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

At Props.com, we have big plans on changing the way bettors view individual props (hence the name of the site), in terms of finding new and creative angles of game analysis and player projections.

This is especially true with college football, which offers limitless gaming opportunities in the coming months.

Which brings us to this: In advance of Props.com’s substantial launch this week, we wanted to arbitrarily present a cluster of Individual Player Props for the 2021 season, featuring seven preseason stars (in alphabetical order):

Iowa State RB Breece Hall
North Carolina QB Sam Howell
Alabama WR John Metchie III
Ohio State WR Chris Olave
Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler
Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller
Liberty QB Malik Willis

Check back with us in January to see how we did with this prop projection of …

NORTH CAROLINA QB SAM HOWELL — OVER 4,000 YARDS PASSING

Image Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

1) To reach the 4,000-yard threshold in 12 regular-season outings, Howell needs to average 333 yards passing per game. In 2020, he cracked that mark only three times (against Florida State, Virginia and Wake Forest). For what it’s worth, all three programs are on North Carolina’s 2021 schedule.

2) Howell definitely have a good opportunity to pad his passing stats on Sept. 11 when he goes up against Georgia State, which ranked 115th nationally in scoring defense last year.

3) North Carolina could replicate last year’s prolific scoring average of 41.7 points per game (which ranked 9th nationally). But it likely will be up to Howell to lead the way through the air, as the Tar Heels lost tailbacks Javonte Williams (1,445 total yards, 22 TDs last season) and Michael Carter (1,512 total yards, 11 TDs) to the NFL.

4) Working against Howell: Since 2015-19, only one ACC quarterback has eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in a full season: Former Clemson star Deshaun Watson, who did it twice

5) As a sophomore in 2020, Howell didn’t quite duplicate his freshman campaign of 3,641 yards passing and 40 total TDs (38 passing), but he came close, passing for 3,586 yards and 36 total TDs (30 passing) while completing 68.1 percent of his throws—all in one fewer game. Had he gotten a 13th contest and met his per-game average of 298.8 yards, Howell would have been knocking on the door of 4,000 passing yards.

NCAA Football Prop Betting Guide