PrizePicks College Football Props Week 11: Take The Over On O’Connell

Our top play last week, Tyler Goodson, flew over his rushing total, but we ended up 2-3 overall on our PrizePicks college football props. Things are still looking up with a 17-12 record over the past five. Let’s zoom out a little bit and keep that momentum going. As usual, we will turn to PrizePicks for these listings.

PrizePicks is technically a fantasy sports site, although they allow you to wager on a series of prop bets within their platform. They are legal in 30 states as well, including some places that don’t allow sports betting at the moment. 

You can read more details on how and where to play Prizepicks by clicking here. 

Another cool thing about PrizePicks is that they have college football props listed. I have perused those lines to find the best College Football Props for Week 11 – all of which can be found on the PrizePicks app. 

With that, let’s get to the best Prizepicks College Football Props!

QB Aiden O’Connell – Purdue OVER 221.5 Passing Yards

What? Really? I mean. Hmm. That can’t be. Is it? 

If you couldn’t tell by that opening stanza, I’m very confused by this passing prop. O’Connell has been on fire for the Boilermakers, yet his passing yardage prop has actually dropped compared to recent weeks. 

🎯 On target! QB Aidan O'Connell has been named the @WalterCampFF National Offensive Player of the Week.

536 yards (40-of-54) and three touchdowns will do that. 𝐖𝐀𝐘 𝐓𝐎 𝐆𝐎, 𝐀𝐈𝐃𝐀𝐍. #BoilerUp pic.twitter.com/Oab8nekkGj

— Purdue Football (@BoilerFootball) November 7, 2021

Sure, O’Connell has been up and down this season. I’m not expecting a repeat of his 536 passing yard performance against Michigan State last week. However, there’s a good chance that he’ll sling it 40-50+ times in an effort to keep pace with Ohio State. That should give him more than enough opportunities to sail over this modest prop. 

O’Connell has failed to clear 222 passing yards in just one of his last five games. He tossed 370+ yards in three of those. In other words, the “over” looks to be in good shape here. Run, don’t walk, to snag this prop before the number changes too much. 

QB Tyler Van Dyke – Miami (FL): OVER 262.5 Passing Yards

Van Dyke has been a bright spot in an otherwise middling season for the Hurricanes. The 6’4” freshman looks poised beyond his years while throwing for 325+ yards in each of his last three games. 

Of course, that has me wondering why his prop is listed so low at just 262.5 passing yards. My model shows his projection closer to the 300-yard mark, and I believe that’s somewhat conservative. 

https://twitter.com/BarstoolU/status/1456013463973732356

It’s not like the matchup is too imposing either. Van Dyke’s opposition, Florida State, ranks 66th in pass defense and 72nd in opponent passer rating. The Hurricanes check-in as small favorites in a somewhat high-scoring game with an over/under of 60. 

This could be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of yards and points. It’s safe to assume that Van Dyke will get in on the action while maintaining his hotstreak. 

QB Garrett Shrader – Syracuse: OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards

This seems like a lot of rushing yards for a quarterback, but Shrader is not your typical signal-caller. He runs the ball 15-25 times per game, which has yielded 62+ rushing yards in four of his last five contests. In fact, he has posted 137+ rushing yards in three of those games.

ACC rushing leaders*

1. Sean Tucker, 1267
2. Mateo Durant, 973
3. Sam Howell, 775
4. Garrett Shrader, 751
5. Jashaun Corbin, 714
6. Pat Garwo, 689
7. Ty Chandler, 671
8. Malik Cunningham, 614

*not counting lost sack yardage

— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 3, 2021

Shrader can rip off a 30-yard run in the blink of an eye, and this matchup isn’t too shabby. Syracuse will face Louisville this weekend, and the Cardinals rank 60th in yards per carry allowed at 4.1 a pop. 

The Orange rarely pass the ball, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Shrader to hit this prop. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if he came close to doubling this rushing prop, so you know it’s a comfortable pick. 

More PrizePicks College Football Props

Justyn Ross (WR – CLEM) UNDER 81.5 Receiving Yards. This could easily be a featured write-up. Ross has plenty of talent, but he hasn’t surpassed 81 yards in nine games this season. Clemson should blow away UConn and focus on their rushing attack this week. 

Jaylan Knighton (RB – MIAMI) OVER 0.5 Rush TDs. As mentioned earlier, this Miami-Florida State game should have plenty of scoring. I’m willing to bet Knighton gets into the end-zone. He has scored three TDs over the last two games while seeing 32 carries last time out. 

K.J. Jefferson (QB – ARK) OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards. Jefferson has topped this mark in six of nine games this season. This should be a back-and-forth contest against LSU, who ranks 72nd in rushing defense while allowing 4.8 yards per carry.