The Patriots are ready to clash with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Sep 17. This week 2 matchup is set to kick off at 8:20 ET and will be televised on NBC. Miami enters this game as 3-point favorites, and the over/under total is currently at 46.5. Can the Dolphins pull this one out as the favorite? Below you will find our Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds
- Spread: Dolphins -3
- Total 46.5
- Date: Sunday, Sep 17
- Time: 8:20 ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
- TV: NBC
Dolphins Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Dolphins have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.
- Miami has a 1-2 record in their last three road games. In this stretch, they averaged 29 points per game while allowing 30. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
- Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Dolphins have a straight up record of 7-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.
Patriots Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Patriots have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
- Across their five previous home games, New England has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-3 while averaging 24 points per game.
- As the betting underdog, the Patriots have an ATS mark of just 0-5 in their last five games. New England posted a straight-up mark of 0-5 in these matchups.
Taking a Look at the Dolphins Chances on the Road
To begin the season, the Dolphins hit the road to take on the Chargers, resulting in a 36-34 win. In addition to winning the game, the Dolphins managed to cover the spread as 3-point underdogs.
Against the Chargers, the Dolphins ran the ball 20 times, with Raheem Mostert as the primary rusher, accumulating 37 yards. Tua Tagovailoa attempted 45 passes, amassing 466 yards and a passer rating of 110.
Defensively, the Dolphins allowed 433 total yards of offense against Los Angeles. Of these yards, 233 were surrendered on the ground, while the team’s secondary conceded 200 yards on 33 pass attempts.
Do the Patriots Have What it Takes to Win as Home Underdogs?
To open the season, the Patriots hosted the Eagles. However, they dropped to 0-1, as they lost by a score of 25-20. The Patriots had a 5-point loss, resulting in a defeat on their ATS record. They were 3.5-point underdogs going into the game.
On offense, the Patriots finished with 382 yards against the Eagles. When it came to third downs, the Patriots had a 33.3% conversion rate. Leading the ground game was Ezekiel Elliott with 29 yards, and Mac Jones contributed 316 passing yards.
The Patriots’ defense finished the game with three sacks and one interception. The team’s secondary gave up 154 passing yards while their rush defense allowed 97 rushing yards.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Player Prop
A prop bet I’m looking at for this game is Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing prop with a value of 50.5 yards. The under bet pays out at -110, and choosing the over results in a payout of -110.
This season, Rhamondre Stevenson currently ranks 10th among running backs in rushing attempts with a total of 25 yards. Going into this week’s game, he has an average of 2 yards per carry. I think there is a ton of value in taking the over on Stevenson’s prop of 50.5 yards. He should be able to take advantage of a defense that is 27th in rushing yards allowed, as the Chargers were able to run over the Dolphins last week.
The Prop: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions
Since the lines have opened, the Dolphins have moved from -2 point favorites to their current line of -3 (-108). The Patriots are currently +3 (-113) point underdogs at home.
New England’s pass defense did a good job slowing down Philadelphia in their most recent game. Even though they are 3-point underdogs at home, I like them to cover as a divisional home underdog.
The Pick: Patriots +3 | -113 at Fanduel Sportsbook
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