For each week of the NFL season, we provide the best Patrick Mahomes prop bets. His next game is Saturday, January 13 against the Miami Dolphins.
Best Patrick Mahomes Player Props Bets vs. Dolphins
As the Kansas City Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins in a highly anticipated AFC Wild Card matchup, all eyes will be on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ signal-caller, known for his dynamic play and ability to make big throws, will be crucial in the team’s quest for back-to-back Super Bowl titles. With cold weather expected to play a factor, Mahomes’ performance will be key to overcoming the Dolphins’ defense and securing a victory in front of the home crowd at Arrowhead Stadium.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 34.5 Passing – Attempts (-110)
Patrick Mahomes is known for his aggressive and high-volume passing game, which is reflected in his season average of 37.31 passing attempts per game, hitting the over on the 34.5 line 62.5% of the time. In the last 10 games, he’s averaged 37.3 attempts, maintaining a consistent approach to the Chiefs’ offensive strategy. With the playoffs on the line and the Chiefs’ tendency to rely on Mahomes’ arm, especially in high-stakes situations, it’s likely that he will be called upon to throw frequently to navigate through the Dolphins’ defense. Considering the cold weather conditions expected for the game, the Chiefs may opt for a short passing game to counteract the elements, which would naturally lead to an increased number of attempts as they move the chains with more conservative throws.
Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 Passing – Longest Pass (-115)
Mahomes’ arm strength and the presence of speedy receivers like Tyreek Hill create the perfect storm for long completions. Despite the cold weather, which typically hinders the passing game, Mahomes has proven capable of connecting on deep throws under less-than-ideal conditions. His season average for the longest pass in a game stands at 38.44 yards, surpassing the prop line of 35.5 yards 56.25% of the time. In the last five games, his average longest pass has increased to 42 yards, indicating a recent trend of successful downfield strikes. With the Dolphins’ defense focusing on limiting Kansas City’s explosive plays, Mahomes will likely have opportunities to exploit one-on-one matchups down the field, leading to at least one pass exceeding the 35.5-yard mark.
All Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Picks for Saturday, Jan 13
| Player Name | Prop | Line | Over Rate | Over Odds | Under Odds | Last 10 Average | Projection | Our Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Passing Attempts | 34.5 | 6/10 | -110 | -120 | 37.3 | 37.87 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Completions | 24.5 | 5/10 | -105 | -125 | 24.8 | 25.43 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Interceptions | 0.5 | 7/10 | -110 | -120 | 0.9 | 0.80 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Longest Pass | 35.5 | 6/10 | -115 | -115 | 38.3 | 39.45 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Passing Touchdowns | 1.5 | 5/10 | -166 | +130 | 1.6 | 1.76 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Passing Yards | 254.5 | 4/10 | -115 | -115 | 259.0 | 259.94 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | Passing And Russhing Yards | 287.5 | 4/10 | -115 | -115 | 279.4 | 280.04 | Under |
| Patrick Mahomes | Rushing Attempts | 4.5 | 4/10 | +100 | -130 | 4.6 | 4.66 | Under |
| Patrick Mahomes | Rushing Yards | 27.5 | 3/10 | -115 | -115 | 20.4 | 21.74 | Under |
| Patrick Mahomes | Longest Rushing Attempt | 12.5 | 4/10 | -125 | -105 | 10.0 | 10.80 | Under |
Patrick Mahomes Stats for the 2023/24 NFL Season
- Passing Interceptions Per Game
- Season: 0.88
- Home: 0.67
- vs. Miami: 0.0
- Passing Completions Per Game
- Season: 25.06
- Home: 24.89
- vs. Miami: 20.0
- Passing Longest Pass Per Game
- Season: 38.44
- Home: 37.89
- vs. Miami: 25.0
- Passing Attempts Per Game
- Season: 37.31
- Home: 38.11
- vs. Miami: 30.0
- Passing Touchdowns Per Game
- Season: 1.69
- Home: 1.89
- vs. Miami: 2.0
- Longest Rushing Attempt Per Game
- Season: 11.56
- Home: 13.56
- vs. Miami: 16.0
- Passing Yards Per Game
- Season: 261.44
- Home: 260.11
- vs. Miami: 185.0
- Rushing Attempts Per Game
- Season: 4.69
- Home: 5.11
- vs. Miami: 6.0
- Passing and Rushing Yards Per Game
- Season: 285.75
- Home: 288.78
- vs. Miami: 209.0
- Rushing Yards Per Game
- Season: 24.31
- Home: 28.67
- vs. Miami: 24.0
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 13
- Time: 08:00 PM
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
- TV: Peacock
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