The Packers sprung the upset against the visiting Cowboys last week. They’re the favorites at home this week against the Titans. Will they stack wins against teams with a winning record or stumble? Should bettors avoid the spread altogether and bet on the total instead? Let’s look at both teams before rendering a verdict for our top Packers vs. Titans predictions.
Packers vs. Titans Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | +3 (+100) | +143 | O 41 (-110) |
| @ Packers | -3 (-120) | -175 | U 41 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 11 p.m. ET on Nov. 15. New to Caesars? Take a look at our Caesars Sportsbook Review to find out how to grab up to a $1,250 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 17
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
- TV: Amazon
Packers vs. Titans Trends
- The Titans opened as 2.5-point underdogs on Sunday (11/13), and they moved to 3.0-point underdogs by Monday, failing to budge since.
- The Packers are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games.
- Green Bay is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following a straight-up win.
- The Packers are 2-8 against the spread following a straight-up win.
- The Titans are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games.
- Tennessee is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games on grass.
- The Titans are 5-0 against the spread versus a team with a losing record.
- Tennessee is 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games.
Green Bay Has Some Red Flags
The Packers halted a five-game losing streak last week, beating the Cowboys 31-28 in overtime in Week 10. Their recipe for success was a successful run-first attack. Green Bay fed Aaron Jones 24 attempts for 138 yards and gave AJ Dillon the ball 13 times for 65 yards.
The running game helped set Aaron Rodgers up for a highly-efficient effort. The 2020 and 2021 NFL MVP completed 14 of 20 passes for 224 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Rodgers was able to connect on multiple deep shots to speedy rookie wideout Christian Watson.
Unfortunately, the road to a similar path to success is muddied by the Titans. According to Football Outsiders, Tennessee is first in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Opponents aren’t messing around with the Titans’ stout run defense. Instead, they’re frequently passing. Maybe, Rodgers can get hot and play well in the wake of Watson’s breakout game, but it’s not a sure thing.
Unfortunately, Green Bay’s defense is also a poor matchup fit. The Packers are 30th in rush defense DVOA. So, they’ll have their hands full with Tennessee’s run-first offense.
King Henry Rules The Roost
Tennessee’s offense is the Derrick Henry show. According to numberFire, King Henry has toted the rock 110 times, and Ryan Tannehill has attempted 123 passes in neutral game scripts in Tannehill’s seven starts this season.
Per Pro-Football-Reference, the bell-cow back is first in rush attempts (202), tied for second in rushing touchdowns (nine), and second in rushing yards per game (102.6) this year. King Henry is steamrolling the competition, and the Packers’ leaky run defense isn’t more than a speed bump.
Thankfully, the Titans can afford to play ugly smash-mouth football because their defense is stellar. Tennessee is ninth in total defense DVOA and eighth in scoring defense (18.7 points per game). Further, the Titans have held six consecutive opponents to 20 points or fewer, rebounding nicely from allowing 41 points in Week 2 to the Bills. Thus, Tennessee’s defense is in excellent form.
Packers vs. Titans Predictions
Perhaps, Watson will be the key to unlocking Green Bay’s offense. Still, that remains to be seen. It’s clear Tennessee has an above-average defense and an elite running game that should pose a problem for Green Bay’s dreadful run defense.
After opening the year 0-2, the Titans have won six of their last seven, with an overtime loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City while led by raw rookie quarterback Malik Willis as the only blemish during their heater. Moreover, Tennessee has won three of five road contests this year. Their only losses in road games were to the Bills and Chiefs, hardly inexcusable defeats.
Tennessee is a live underdog. Most importantly, the Titans’ rushing game advantage against Green Bay’s horrendous run defense has me delighted to take the visitors at plus money on the moneyline. So, let’s bet on the underdog to spring the upset on Thursday night.
Pick: Titans moneyline | +143 at Caesars Sportsbook