Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds, Prediction, Best Bet

The scrappy Orioles have been a pleasant surprise in 2022, contending for a Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are also in the Wild Card chase, but that’s slightly disappointing since they were considered a legitimate threat to win the AL East.

It’s an AL battle of the birds between winning teams tonight. So what can watchers and bettors expect in this contest? We’ll preview these Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds and conclude with our best bet.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds

Team	Runline	Moneyline	Total
Blue Jays (J. Berrios)	-1.5 (+105)	-150	O 9 (-105)
@ Orioles (D. Kremer)	+1.5 (-130)	+125	U 9 (-115)

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook as of 10 am ET on Aug. 10.

Boom or Bust Berrios

Berrios vs Orioles: Jose Berrios has had moments of brilliance, but they’ve been offset by messy starts this year. As a result, he’s had a 5.19 ERA in 22 starts totaling 118.0 innings. In addition, according to FanGraphs, Berrios’s 5.48 xERA has been the highest among qualified pitchers.

A look at the 28-year-old righty’s game log shows how up and down he’s been. Berrios has allowed at least three runs in 12 starts, including getting ripped for at least four runs seven times. He’s also struggled with all hitters, allowing a .330 wOBA to righties and a .366 wOBA to lefties.

Orioles Offense: The Orioles are genuinely a mid-pack offense against righties, ranking tied for 16th in wRC+ (98) against them. Unfortunately, they’ve been a bit below average in their renovated home ballpark this year, sitting tied for 23rd in wRC+ (95) in home games.

However, they’ve been in a groove lately. Over the last 30 days, the O’s are seventh in wRC+ (115). Thus, their splits are a mixed bag. As such, it’s probably best to view Baltimore’s offense as roughly average, and their outlook is enhanced by facing an inconsistent starter who’s been more bad than good this season.

Kremer Has Been Cooking

Kremer vs Blue Jays: Dean Kremer has made a monumental leap from getting whacked for a 7.55 ERA in 2021 to owning a 3.43 ERA in 2022. Sadly, Kremer’s ERA estimators aren’t as bullish. He’s also had a 5.03 xERA, 4.67 xFIP, and 4.53 SIERA.

Kremer has beaten his ERA estimators by keeping the ball in the yard. So, his 3.91 FIP has primarily supported his breakout. It’s too early to tab Kremer as an outlier for suppressing homers. However, he’s down a great job of keeping the ball in the yard in the minors. So, there might be something here.

Blue Jays Offense: The Blue Jays will test the legitimacy of Kremer’s breakout. They’re a top-flight offense, despite George Springer’s presence on the Injured List. Toronto is fourth in wRC+ (116) against righties.

They’re also hot. Over the last 30 days, they’re tied for fourth with a blistering 126 wRC+. Further, Toronto’s bats haven’t had any issues traveling through customs, as they’ve had the fourth-highest wRC+ (111) on the road this year. Finally, Toronto’s righty-laden lineup will benefit from Kremer’s reverse split. The young righty has allowed a .355 wOBA to right-handed batters in 2022.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction

Toronto’s offense is unquestionably better than Baltimore’s. However, the O’s might have a slight pitching edge tonight.

The splits are interesting, too. According to Baseball-Reference, the Blue Jays are 50-37 against righties but only 26-29 on the road and 29-38 against teams with at least a .500 record. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 33-21 at home and 22-8 in their last 30 games. Unfortunately, they’re only 34-36 against righties and 29-35 against teams with a .500 record or better.

It should be a competitive game, and I don’t have a firm conviction about who will win. Thankfully, Baltimore’s team total is a compelling wagering option. BetMGM lists their total at 3.5 runs, and the over’s price of -125 is reasonably affordable. I can live with laying modest juice on Baltimore easily going over 3.5 runs.

The Pick: Orioles Over 3.5 Runs | -125 at BetMGM Sportsbook