NL Cy Young Odds: Scherzer Stock Crashes Due To Injury

New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer catches the baseball in his glove with his left hand while warming up on the mound before the sixth inning of a spring training game against the St. Louis Cardinals
Image Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

NL Cy Young odds have gotten two noteworthy jolts this season. And unfortunately for the New York Mets, they’ve provided both those shake-ups, losing two of the best pitchers in MLB.

Just before the season started, Jacob deGrom was shelved by a shoulder issue. He’s still not back in the rotation. Now, Max Scherzer has a strained oblique, knocking him out for six to eight weeks. Bookmakers responded accordingly in odds to win the National League Cy Young Award. checks in on the latest 2022 NL Cy Young odds and action, with insights from The SuperBook.

2022 NL Cy Young Odds

Corbin BurnesMilwaukee Brewers+450
Walker BuehlerLos Angeles Dodgers+450
Pablo LopezMiami Marlins+900
Zac GallenArizona Diamondbacks+900
Carlos RodonSan Francisco Giants+1000
Clayton KershawLos Angeles Dodgers+1000
Joe MusgroveSan Diego Padres+1000
Max FriedAtlanta Braves+1200
Zack WheelerPhiladelphia Phillies+1800
Aaron NolaPhiladelphia Phillies+2500
Freddy PeraltaMilwaukee Brewers+3000
Josh HaderMilwaukee Brewers+3000
Sandy AlcantaraMiami Marlins+3000
Chris BassittNew York Mets+4000
Julio UriasLos Angeles Dodgers+4000
Kyle WrightAtlanta Braves+4000
Logan WebbSan Francisco Giants+4000
Max ScherzerNew York Mets+4000
Merrill KellyArizona Diamondbacks+4000

Odds via The SuperBook and updated as of 5 p.m. ET May 20

From Favorite to Long Shot

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes delivers a pitch against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at American Family Field on May 18, 2022.
Image Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Scherzer is 5-1 with a solid 2.54 ERA, striking out 59 while walking just 11 over his first eight starts. That had the veteran right-hander as a +500 co-favorite in The SuperBook’s NL Cy Young odds market. Joining him there: Milwaukee Brewers starter Corbin Burnes and Los Angeles Dodgers starter Walker Buehler.

But with the May 19 news of Scherzer’s oblique strain — which could shelve him until after the All-Star break — The SuperBook stretched Scherzer’s price to +4000. So the Mets righty is now the co-14th choice. However, bettors weren’t really on the Scherzer train, anyway.

“Not a ton of tickets or liability to this point,” SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. “We are a decent winner to Scherzer if he can come back in enough time to win the award for a fourth time.”

Along with sliding Scherzer down the odds board, The SuperBook initially shortened Burnes and Buehler to +400 co-faves. Two days later, on May 20, both are at +450.

Burnes is just 1-2 through eight starts, but he’s got a solid 2.26 ERA and has racked up 62 strikeouts, against just eight walks. More on Buehler below.

Ticket Takers and (Perhaps) Money Makers

Unlike Scherzer, Buehler is a popular play at The SuperBook. Like Scherzer, the right-handed Buehler is 5-1 through eight starts. The Dodgers starter has a 2.89 ERA, with 39 Ks against 12 walks.

“Buehler is No. 1 in ticket count. We are a small loser to him, and deGrom also saw some money at 100/1, even though we aren’t sure when he’ll return to the bump this year,” Degnon said. “Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins is also attracting some public money.”

Degnon noted deGrom is now out to +20,000 (200/1), and the timeline for deGrom’s return is fuzzy at best. Meanwhile, Alcantara is a modest 3-2 in eight starts for the Marlins, and his strikeouts-to-walks ratio is barely above 2/1 (42 Ks/20 walks). But he’s got a nifty 2.49 ERA.

That said, Alcantara doesn’t make the short list among those The SuperBook needs and those whom bettors are rooting for in this race.

“We are rooting against deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, and Yu Darvish,” Degnon said. “We are rooting for, most notably, Burnes or Madison Bumgarner.”

Kershaw, Buehler’s rotation mate and a three-time Cy Young winner, is the +1000 co-fifth choice, joined by the San Francisco Giants’ Carlos Rodon. Kershaw is 4-0 with a sparkling 1.80 ERA in five starts, with 32 strikeouts against just three walks.

Darvish is a +10,000 dark horse (100/1), with a 4-1 record through eight starts, but a not-as-impressive 3.91 ERA.

On the plus side of The SuperBook’s NL Cy Young futures ledger is Bumgarner. Now with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the left-hander is another dark horse at +5000. Bumgarner is just 2-2 through eight starts, with only 35.1 innings pitched, but he holds a 2.29 ERA.