NFL prop bets are popular throughout the regular season, and even more so with the condensed postseason schedule. The first game out of the gate, Saturday’s Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals clash, has a plethora of prop bets available.
Below are our five favorite NFL Wild Card prop bets for Raiders vs. Bengals, with supporting arguments on both sides — if such arguments can be made.
Odds via DraftKings and The SuperBook, updated as of 2 p.m. ET on January 13.
Cincinnati Bengals: QB Joe Burrow
The prop: 260.5 Total Passing Yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Burrow piled up 4,611 yards through the air in the regular season (288.2 ypg), and it would’ve been a few more if he hadn’t rested in Week 18 (a meaningless game for Cincinnati). In the five weeks prior to that, the second-year QB put up some gaudy numbers. In home games against the Chargers and 49ers (Weeks 13 and 14), Burrow had 300 and 348 yards, respectively. But the Bengals lost both times.
The former Heisman Trophy winner really went wild in Weeks 16 and 17: 525 yards vs. Baltimore, then an impressive 446-yard effort against Kansas City. Both games were at home, both were wins, and in both cases, Burrow threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions.
But Burrow also had six games in which he fell short of this prop number. In fact, he threw for 207 yards or less in five of those outings, including a game against … the Raiders. Although Cincy cruised to a 32-13 win in Las Vegas, Burrow was 20 of 29 for 148 yards — a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt, his lowest of the season by far.
For Burrow, perhaps the difference is being at home, where he passed for more than 260 yards in eight of nine games. And in impressive fashion in his two most recent starts.
Las Vegas Raiders: QB Derek Carr
The prop: 0.5 Total Interceptions
The odds: Over -135/Under +105
There’s a reason this line is juiced to the Over in the NFL Wild Card prop bets market: Carr threw at least one INT in 12 of 17 games this season, and he was especially charitable down the stretch. From Weeks 14-17, he got picked off five times — once each against the Chiefs (road), Browns (road) and Broncos (home), and twice at Indianapolis.
Carr did have a clean sheet in the Week 18 overtime win against the Chargers. Further, Cincinnati was only middle-of-the-pack in the NFL this season with 13 INTs. However, one of those came off Carr in the Raiders’ 33-21 Week 11 home loss.
Carr just wrapped up his eighth NFL season (all with the Raiders). But this is still his first playoff game — same for Cincy’s Burrow — and it’s on the road.
One pick isn’t too difficult to imagine — especially in what likely will be frigid conditions.
Las Vegas Raiders: RB Josh Jacobs
The prop: 85.5 Combined Rushing and Receiving Yards
The odds: Over -105/Under -125
Bookmakers expect Jacobs to be semi-involved in the Raiders’ passing game, as the number for this prop is 26 yards above Jacobs’ rushing total prop (59.5). The former Alabama star exceeded this rushing/receiving total only six times in 15 games this season, falling way short in the Week 11 home loss to the Bengals. In that contest, Jacobs had 37 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards.
The counter-argument: Jacobs eclipsed 85.5 rushing/receiving yards in three of his last four games, and was pretty close in the fourth (80 combined yards at the Colts in Week 17).
This prop may be a little more of a coin flip than the odds indicate.
Cincinnati Bengals: WR Ja’Marr Chase
The prop: 5.5 Total Receptions
The odds: Over +100/Under -130
Chase had a huge rookie season, with 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. The issue — and the reason why the Under is juiced to -130 here — is that Chase has had far more lackluster outings than explosive.
Everyone recalls Chase’s Week 17 effort in the Bengals’ big come-from-behind home win over Kansas City: 11 catches, 266 yards, three touchdowns (including a 72-yarder). And he had strong showings in two victories over the Ravens: eight catches for 201 yards and a TD in Week 7 on the road; seven grabs for 125 yards in Week 16 at home.
But even if you toss out his two-catch effort in last week’s meaningless season finale at Cleveland — a game Burrow sat out — Chase had five or fewer catches in 10 other games this year. Also, prior to back-to-back big games against Baltimore and K.C. in Weeks 16 and 17, Chase had five straight games of five or fewer receptions.
Four weeks ago at Denver, he had a season-low one catch for 3 yards. And in his team’s Week 11 road win over these same Raiders, Chase had three receptions for 32 yards. Then again, like his QB, Chase has been far more productive at home: Five of the six times he hauled in more than five passes came in Cincinnati.
It’s a challenging prop, and perhaps the best move is to correlate it with Burrow’s completions prop (23.5) or passing yardage prop (see above). As Burrow goes, likely so goes Chase.
Las Vegas Raiders: Points Scored
The prop: 21.5 Total Team Points Scored
The odds: Over -110/Under -110
It pays to shop around, depending on what you make of this option in the NFL Wild Card prop bets market. If you like the Over, hit The SuperBook at 20.5. If you feel Under is the play, head to DraftKings for 21.5.
On a pick ’em bet, obviously an argument can be made for either side. Las Vegas had nine games this season in which it failed to surpass 17 points (let alone 20.5). In their four December games, the Raiders notched a cumulative total of 57 points, averaging less than 15 ppg.
And as noted multiple times above, the Silver & Black mustered a meager 13 points in their 32-13 home loss to Cincy in late November.
That leaves eight games in which the Raiders topped 20.5 points. And the interesting thing is, when Vegas surpassed this total, it often did so by a lot. In six of those eight contests, the Raiders scored 31 points or more. The Raiders also got beyond this prop number in their last two games: a 23-20 win at the Colts and a 35-32 home overtime win against the Chargers (29-29 tie in regulation).
Toss a coin on this. Then shop for the best number.
