With Thanksgiving football in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look ahead to the remaining NFL player props for Week 12. Here, I’ve selected my top three that you should consider for Sunday.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep as of Friday, Nov. 26.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
The Prop: Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Odds: Over 230.5 (-115)/Under 230 (-115)
The Jaguars are taking on the Falcons this week and I love the matchup for the Jags passing game and Trevor Lawrence relative to the rest of the league. We have seen the Jags limit Lawrence’s pass attempts in recent weeks given their lack of weapons relative to the beginning of the year, but I don’t think that that is a concern in this game.
Lawrence faces a defense that is generally simple and doesn’t create a ton of confusion for a rookie QB. They also are capable of getting burned more than most, meaning that we are more likely to get a broken play. The Falcons’ pass defense is worse in real life than it is statistically because they are trailing in most games.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor
The Prop: Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Odds: Over 85.5 (-115)/Under 85.5 (-115)
The Bucs have been a pass funnel all season long and even though we don’t expect Vita Vea back in this game, I expect them to focus on stopping Jonathan Taylor in this game. Taylor is an electric back that breaks as many big runs as anyone, but he isn’t consistently grinding out 6.0 YPC on his non-explosive carries.
Jonathan Taylor = MVP? @JayT23 | @Colts | #ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/SsJ38QMnPS
— NFL (@NFL) November 22, 2021
I think that the explosives fail to show up in this matchup and that leads to one of JT’s worst games of the season and an under on his prop.
Green Bay Packers: AJ Dillon
The Prop: AJ Dillon Receptions vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Odds: Over 3.5 (-110)/Under 3.5 (-120)
AJ Dillon took over for Aaron Jones last week when Jones went out with a knee injury. Dillon was all we could have asked for and more as a Jones replacement. Coming out of college, Dillon was a workhorse back without many pass-catching reps and I think that his size led people to believe that he wouldn’t be a good pass-catching back.
AJ Dillon has been awesome as a pass-catcher this season.
Consistently made tough catches outside of his frame, and still a threat after the catch thanks to his contact balance. pic.twitter.com/nhxiLBd5YU
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) November 24, 2021
This is just not the case and Dillon showed off his passing game prowess last week with six catches on six targets. I think that this usage will continue and we will get the over here early in the second half, making it a great choice for your NFL player props slip on Sunday.
