NFL Futures Week 15: Still Value Betting Tom Brady For MVP?

Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reacts Buffalo Bills during the first half at Raymond James Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Tampa, Florida.
Image Credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Each week, BetPrep Sharp and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg talks about expected win totals, division odds, Super Bowl favorites, and other NFL futures bets with host and BetPrep Editor Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight.

It’s the official futures podcast of BetPrep, a free sports betting research site that empowers bettors with the same tools both the sharps and the sportsbooks use.

Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Futures Podcast.

Note: These write-ups are shortened transcriptions from the podcast episode. Be sure to listen to the podcast for full context on these NFL futures!

Tom Brady: Wins MVP (-150)

Image Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports

Brad’s Take: With four games left in the season, we’ve gotten to a point where I feel pretty good about who’s going to win what.

While there is time for Brady to lose this, look at their schedule. It’s going to be hard for him to have a bad game.

Carolina twice, the Jets and New Orleans. I know the Saints have given Brady fits in the past. But the Bucs are a double-digit favorite. But if you want to take Aaron Rodgers for $25 plus-600 to cover yourself, that’s a good strategy. He’s the only other guy who really has a chance … But Brady crushes him in yards and touchdowns. He’s first in QBR. But at 6-to-1, if Rodgers wins you still make $150 betting Brady, too. And if Brady wins as expected, you still make money. I actually put Brady at 80% to win and think Rodgers wins once out of the five times.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 3.5 Wins (-115)

Head Coach Urban Meyer of the Jacksonville Jaguars on the sidelines during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 12, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee.
Image Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Brad’s Take: Have you ever seen a more dysfunctional team than the Jaguars right now? They have two wins. So they have to go 2-2 to beat you. They play at New England and at the Colts. I know you have to give some win shares there but I’m going to say that’s two losses, period. Those teams are going to be double-digit favorites. Their other two games are not quite 50/50. I’ll say they are a little better than that against the Jets in New Jersey and home against the Texans (who killed them in Week 1).

So instead of having a 25% chance to win two games, I’ll go all the way to 30%. That means this bet wins 70% of the time. That’s a big edge.

The key is that I don’t see a path where they beat New England or Indy.  So we should be laying minus-225 and instead it’s just minus-115.

Cleveland Browns: Under 9.5 Wins (-140)

Jarvis Landry #80 of the Cleveland Browns jogs across the field after beating the Cincinnati Bengals 41-16 at Paul Brown Stadium on November 07, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Image Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Brad’s Take: So they need to go 3-1 to beat you. I’m giving them a loss at the Packers. That means they need to sweep the Raiders at home, at the Steelers and the Bengals at home. There are no layup games where, not even the Raiders at home. (This was recorded before the Browns were decimated by COVID.) This is another situation where they should have the team on an even number but they don’t want ties so they are basically giving you a free win.

They are by far more likely to land on nine wins than on 10. But they need the 10 to beat you.

The Raiders have a puncher’s chance. The Steelers are going to be tough to beat in Pittsburgh and the Bengals are a good team. If you think they’re going to lose at Green Bay, which I strongly believe, this is a great bet.

New Orleans Saints: Over 7.5 Wins (-165)

Taysom Hill #7 of the New Orleans Saints runs the ball during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Saints 23-21.
Image Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Brad’s Take: I say I bet numbers, not teams. I took the Saints under 11.5, under 10.5, and under 10. We’ve talked about them almost every week here. And I’m going to win those bets, obviously. But now it’s 7.5.

I think the schedule is really, really favorable. Give them a loss at Tampa Bay. But then it’s Miami at home, Carolina home and at Atlanta. I honestly believe they will be favored in all three.

So I expect this team to finish with nine wins. And I would have set the total at 8.0.  I don’t mind paying the juice here. Even if I’m off a game, the Saints going 2-2 wins this bet. 

Minnesota Vikings: Under 8.5 Wins (-185)

Minnesota Vikings quarterback #8 Kirk Cousins looks for an open receiver in a 2021 home game.
Image Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Brad’s Take: We’ve given out Vikings over 7.5 and over 8.5 before. The Lions loss changed everything. That turned the team to one I really thought would win nine games to one that is going to win probably eight. And I’m worried they don’t cash the 7.5, to be honest. 

You have at Green Bay. The Rams at home. And the Bears twice. That’s freakin hard to go 3-1 and get to 9-8.

They can absolutely lose one game to the Bears and I expect them to, honestly. And I think the Bears stink. The Vikings just find ways to lose. It’s such a Minnesota thing. 

For more of Brad’s picks, including NBA futures, listen to the full Givin Futures podcast.