Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA betting props from Wednesday’s slate of nine games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Dec. 29.
Indiana Pacers: PF/C Domantas Sabonis
The Prop: 38.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. Charlotte)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
The Pacers have won five of their last six home games, and Sabonis is a big reason why. The Gonzaga product sat out the most recent home victory over Houston on Thursday, but in the previous five contests in Indiana, he averaged 38.4 points/rebounds/assists. The per-outing tallies: 27, 41, 41, 37 and 46.
In fact, Sabonis has been extremely productive at home all season, posting double-doubles in 14 of his 17 games in Indy.
Sabonis figures to put up monster numbers tonight, simply because of the opponent. In his last six matchups with the Hornets, Sabonis has eclipsed Wednesday’s prop number four times. In those four games, he collected 50, 39, 43, and 45 points/rebounds/assists.
Two of those contests took place this year (both in Charlotte): In the season opener on Oct. 20, Sabonis went for 33 points, 15 rebounds, and two assists. A month later, though, he produced just eight points to go with 10 boards and six dimes.
Over his last 16 games — regardless of opponent or venue — Sabonis is averaging 18.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists. That includes 14 double-digit rebounding games.
Boston Celtics: C Robert Williams
The Prop: 9.5 rebounds (vs. L.A. Clippers)
The Odds: Over -140/Under +105
Williams is modestly averaging 8.7 rebounds in Year 4 with the Celtics; and yet, “Over 9.5 rebounds” carries significant juice. One possible reason for that is Williams has upped his rebounding game of late, tallying 11 or more boards in f0ur of his last five outings.
However, during a seven-game stretch from Dec. 1-17, the center from Texas A&M didn’t once pull down more than seven rebounds. That includes a seven-board effort in L.A. against the Clippers back on Dec. 8.
Even though Williams fell short of this prop number in that contest, the fact remains that the Clippers struggle to keep big men off the glass. L.A. is allowing the fifth-most total rebounds in the league (47.0 per game) and the fourth-most offensive rebounds (11.3 per game).
If you’re betting on Williams reaching double-digit boards Wednesday, you’re pretty much betting that he’ll play big minutes. Because in the 11 games in which Williams has logged at least 30 minutes of court time, he’s averaging 10.4 rebounds per game. He beat this prop in eight of those 11 contests.
Williams certainly should have fresh legs for this one, as he logged just 22 minutes in Monday’s game at Minnesota. (For the record, he played just 20 minutes versus the Clippers earlier this month.)
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Chicago Bulls: SG DeMar DeRozan
The Prop: 26.5 points (vs. Atlanta)
The Odds: Over +100/Under -125
DeRozan hung 35 points on the Hawks in Atlanta on Monday night, while shooting 14 of 20 from the field.
Can he repeat the feat when the Bulls and Hawks play the back end of a home-and-home series? Recent history suggests yes, as DeRozan has scored at least 28 points in six of the last eight games he’s suited up. That includes a four-game stretch from Nov. 27-Dec. 4 in which the veteran sharpshooter put up 28, 28, 34, and 29 points.
Also, DeRozan has averaged 29.9 points in his last four meetings with the Hawks (dating back to his days with the Spurs). And including Monday’s game in Atlanta, he’s scored at least 28 points in three of four games against Southeast Division foes this season.
All that said, DeRozan has been a much more prolific scorer on the road this season (28.1 ppg) than at home (25.9 ppg). Also, prior to Nov. 27, DeRozen tallied at least 27 points in consecutive games just three times in 20 contests.
Los Angeles Lakers: PG Russell Westbrook
The Prop: 8.5 assists (at Memphis)
The Odds: Over -125/Under -105
The NBA universe might still be buzzing from LeBron James (32 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists) and Westbrook (24/12/10) each producing triple-doubles during the Lakers’ 132-123 road win over the Rockets last night.
But for this exercise, we’re squarely focused on these Westbrook-centric assist trends:
— Westbrook has played on consecutive nights four times this season, and on the back end of those situations, he’s tallied nine or more assists just once (he had 13 at Oklahoma City on Nov. 27). Westbrook’s assist output in the other three back-to-backs: 8, 5 and 7.
— In five games since teammate Anthony Davis went down with an injury on Dec. 17), Westbrook his picked up the slack, averaging 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per outing. However, he beat Wednesday’s assist prop just three times.
— Westbrook has faced Memphis twice this season, dishing out 13 dimes at home but only seven on the road. In fact, he’s eclipsed 8.5 assists in exactly half of his last eight games versus the Grizzlies.
Portland Trail Blazers: PG Damian Lillard
The Prop: 3.5 made three-pointers (vs. Utah)
The Odds: Over -130/Under +100
Lillard is averaging 23.9 points and 7.4 assists per game for Portland this season, numbers that closely mirror his career stats of 24.6 points and 6.7 assists per outing.
There’s a ghastly difference, however, between Lillard’s career proficiency from three-point range (37.3 percent) and this season’s 32.8-percent clip. How tough has it been for the perennial All-Star to drain shots from downtown? He’s buried four or more treys in just 11 of his 27 games.
So does that make the Under on this prop a stone-cold lock? Not necessarily. For one thing, since returning from a five-game injury absence on Dec. 12, Lillard has nailed at least three triples in seven consecutive games. During this mini-stretch, he’s hit five or six three-pointers four times, while shooting 38.8 percent from long range.
Also, of the 11 games in which Lillard made at least four three-pointers, eight were at home.
Tonight, Lillard runs up against a Jazz defense that ranks third overall in three-pointers allowed (11.0 per game), fourth in opponents’ three-point proficiency (32.8 percent), and seventh in scoring defense (yielding 105.6 points per contest).
However, in his last four matchups against the Jazz — including one on Nov. 29 in Utah — Lillard shot just 25 percent from three-point distance (8-for-32). Number of triples drained during this span: 1, 3, 3 and 1.
That’s a far cry from his first 30 career games against the Jazz, in which Lillard connected on 103 of 240 three-point attempts — that equates to a blistering 43.0 percent.
