NBA Draft Betting: Smith Or Holmgren As Top Pick?

The Warriors won the NBA Finals less than a week ago, but the news feed rolls on with the NBA draft. On top of that, the rumor mill is churning with free agency and trade murmurs ahead of Thursday’s draft.

The action is heating up in the betting markets as well. The battle for the top overall pick is particularly interesting, as nobody has emerged as a true favorite. In fact, Caesars Sportsbook reported that the NBA draft first pick has already drawn more handle than the NFL draft first pick.

The following write-ups will break down who to be as the top overall pick in the NBA draft.

NBA Draft Betting: No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Player	School	Odds
Jabari Smith	Auburn	-150
Paolo Banchero	Duke	+200
Chet Holmgren	Gonzaga	+300
Jaden Ivey	Purdue	+12000

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:45 pm ET on June 20.

Banchero’s odds have been all over the place. Over the past 24 hours, he has jumped from +420 to +200 which is now second behind Jabari Smith. Chet Holmgren checks in behind them at +300 odds.

Let’s break down the options below.

The Favorite: Jabari Smith

Smith is the current betting favorite, opening at -105 and moving to -155 at FanDuel. He’s received the majority of the bets and the handle, and he remains the most popular top pick in most mock drafts.

That said, it appears Smith’s grasp on the top spot is loosening. Orlando Team President Jeff Weltman told reporters that the Magic are still undecided on the top selection. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony reports that the order of the top three is still in flux. That’s a far cry from last month when Givony reported that Smith was “all but assured to be the top pick.”

Here’s the case for Smith as the top overall pick: He has elite perimeter shooting combined with strong on-ball defense. Smith shot a sparkling 43.6% from 3-point range last season, and he has the ability to score in all facets of the game. The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor believes that Smith also possesses All-Defensive Team upside, and that’s a tough combination to ignore.

In The Mix: Chet Holmgren

Still, the upside of Holmgren is tantalizing. He is the definition of an NBA unicorn, combining the ability to space the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense. While those players aren’t as unique as they used to be, you only need one hand to count the number of players who can accomplish that at a high level.

Holmgren has the potential to be elite in both areas. He averaged 3.6 blocks per game while shooting 41.2% from 3-point range in his lone college season.

I remain convinced that he has the highest upside in the class. His biggest concern is his frame, which checks in at just 195 pounds. That makes him a liability against some of the more physical big men in the league, but it’s important to remember that he’s just over 20 years old. Giannis Antetokounmpo was only 205 pounds when he was drafted. Kevin Durant was 215. Holmgren will undoubtedly put on more size once he gets into the NBA, so that doesn’t bother me nearly as much as it does others.

Holmgren is not a perfect fit with the Magic’s current roster, since they already have multiple centers in Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba. The latter is technically a restricted free agent, but it seems unlikely that the Magic will let him walk for nothing. Neither of those players has proven enough to dissuade the Magic from picking a center.

NBA Draft Betting Pick

The Bet: Chet Holmgren as No. 1 Overall Pick (+170)

When you’re picking first overall, you need to swing for the fences. A single or a double isn’t going to cut it.

Keeping with that metaphor, Holmgren is the homerun pick. I’m expecting to hear his name called first on draft night. The Gonzaga product has the highest upside of this class, and a rebuilding franchise like Orlando needs to take a chance on his talent. Smith will likely be a solid NBA contributor, but Holmgren has the ability to become a legitimate NBA superstar.

Because of that, I’ll roll the dice on Holmgren as the top overall pick.

Grab This Pick At FanDuel Sportsbook

You can grab this pick at +170 on FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s much better odds than +115 at PointsBet and +145 at Caesars.

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