NOTE: This is a guest article from our friends at Unabated Sports.
The Unabated NBA team delivers player prop projections daily, made by some of the sharpest players in the space – Justin Phan, Stephen Byron Keech and John Raudebaugh.
Betting NBA props is something of a different animal compared to betting props in other sports.
Because the prop markets are so reactive to news, and because player performance is very much tied to which teammates will be on the floor, it requires bettors to be very active and aware of context around what teams are doing when it comes to resting players, and other factors.
For a deeper look at NBA betting strategy with the Unabated NBA team, check out some of their thoughts on the process.
NBA DFS Pick’em Projections & Notes: Wednesday, February 12th
Here, we’re taking a look at a few of those projections and how they stack up against available lines at Underdog, which is widely available to bettors in the majority of jurisdictions.
We’re using the Unabated DFS Entry Builder to find an edge.
How to read this entry
- PowerPlay/FlexPlay: Whether or not this entry uses insurance – paying a reduced rate for entries that have one or more legs that miss.
- Projection: The average points, rebounds or assists the team is projecting for this player, based on how many minutes they’re projected to play.
- Line: The current line at the DFS pick’em site.
- Play: Whether the recommended play is higher or lower than the current line.
- Edge: How much of an advantage you can expect to have over the pick’em sites, based on running 10,000 simulations of a player’s mean projections and generating a likely distribution of outcomes against the current line.
- Probability: How often we expect an outcome like higher points or lower assists, based on the projection simulated against the line. You can translate this to a projected price using an odds converter.
Best practices for DFS pick’em
Should you play a four-team entry over a five- or six-team? It depends. DFS pick’em products are always evolving. The best way to determine the optimal play is to use breakeven percentage as a way to guide your decisions.
Here’s a breakdown of how breakeven impacts your plays at Underdog and PrizePicks.
For standard plays at regular payouts, you’ll generally have the biggest edge when playing five- and six-man entries.
But as these products evolve, correlation is increasingly a factor in payouts. For example, a quarterback’s passing yards and star wide receiver’s yards would be correlated. That correlation may decrease your payout.
Always check the math to determine the breakeven percentage and payout of a play before you make any betting decisions.
Projection notes
- Oklahoma City: Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Ousmane Dieng and Nikola Topic are all out. Isaiah Joe will return, and his presence does throw another body back into the guard/wing rotation, which could eat slightly into the upside of guys like Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins. Chet’s absence thins things out in the frontcourt a bit, and makes it more likely we see more of Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams in addition to Isaiah Hartenstein in a competitive game.
- Toronto (second leg of back-to-back): Brandon Ingram, Jakob Poeltl, AJ Lawson and Ulrich Chomche are all out, while RJ Barrett is available. No Immanuel Quickley on the injury report which is a little surprising, and we’ll at least want to keep a loose eye on his status as the day moves along. Ochai Agbaji’s role should tick back down with RJ back, and it doesn’t help the ceiling for Gradey Dick either. Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamison Battle should also suffer, and it’s possible Battle is out of the rotation completely. Walter’s spot should still be secure.
- Utah (first leg of back-to-back): Collin Sexton is the only main rotation player out of action for Utah tonight. They’ll also be without Micah Potter and Elijah Harkless, both of whom have played rotational roles at some point in the last month. Neither are involved now. With Sexton still out, the roles for Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George and Jordan Clarkson are all more secure.
- Detroit (second leg of back-to-back): Just Jaden Ivey and four G-Leaguers out as usual, so nothing new here
Results
Through Feb. 3 games, Unabated NBA members who were betting using $100 units would be up $38,563 betting straight props against median sportsbook lines 30 minutes prior to tip-off on all points, rebounds or assists player prop projections that showed a 5% or more edge in the Unabated player prop simulator.
It’s a 7.44% return on investment across 4,204 bets.
Those include the dynamic conditional projections at Unabated NBA – which offer different scenarios for a team’s performance based on whether or not questionable players sit or start.
For example, on a night where Lebron James may be questionable to play for the Lakers at 4 p.m., the team will create two sets of projections: one where James plays, and one where he’s out, to show how his presence or absence will affect projections for the rest of the team.
These results include the appropriate sit/start scenarios if a player’s status is decided at least 30 minutes before the game starts. If James is confirmed to play by 9:30 p.m. for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off, results are for the “James plays” scenario. If he’s ruled out, the opposite scenario is recorded. If no decision is made before the 30-minute mark, Lakers projections wouldn’t be included in the results.
Dig into all the projections
Get more projection notes and up-to-the-minute breaking news alerts in the Unabated Discord, with dedicated channels just for Unabated NBA members.
Unabated NBA membership includes daily fantasy points projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. For those strictly interested in traditional DFS points, Unabated NBA DFS lets you access just those numbers.
Use Props.com’s coupon code “PLAYERPROPS” when signing up to receive a FREE 5-day Unabated Sports trial! Using our link/code will grant the redeemer $30 off Unabated products (not including NBA Projections plan), which can be used for a trial or discount.
