NOTE: This is a guest article from our friends at Unabated Sports.
The Unabated NBA team delivers player prop projections daily, made by some of the sharpest players in the space – Justin Phan, Stephen Byron Keech and John Raudebaugh.
Betting NBA props is something of a different animal compared to betting props in other sports.
Because the prop markets are so reactive to news, and because player performance is very much tied to which teammates will be on the floor, it requires bettors to be very active and aware of context around what teams are doing when it comes to resting players, and other factors.
For a deeper look at NBA betting strategy with the Unabated NBA team, check out some of their thoughts on the process.
NBA DFS Pick’em Projections & Notes: Wednesday, March 19th
Here, we’re taking a look at a few of those projections and how they stack up against available projections.
We’re using the Unabated DFS Entry Builder to find an edge.
How to read this entry
- Projection: The average points, rebounds or assists the team is projecting for this player, based on how many minutes they’re projected to play.
- Line: The current line at the DFS pick’em site.
- Play: Whether the recommended play is higher or lower than the current line.
- Edge: How much of an advantage you can expect to have over the pick’em sites, based on running 10,000 simulations of a player’s mean projections and generating a likely distribution of outcomes against the current line.
- Probability: How often we expect an outcome like higher points or lower assists, based on the projection simulated against the line. You can translate this to a projected price using an odds converter.
Best practices for DFS pick’em
Should you play a four-team entry over a five- or six-team? It depends. DFS pick’em products are always evolving. The best way to determine the optimal play is to use breakeven percentage as a way to guide your decisions.
Here’s a breakdown of how breakeven impacts your plays at sites like Underdog and PrizePicks.
For standard plays at regular payouts, you’ll generally have the biggest edge when playing five- and six-man entries.
But as these products evolve, correlation is increasingly a factor in payouts. For example, a quarterback’s passing yards and star wide receiver’s yards would be correlated. That correlation may decrease your payout.
Always check the math to determine the breakeven percentage and payout of a play before you make any betting decisions.
Projection notes
New York: Mitchell Robinson and Pacome Dadiet are questionable, while Jalen Brunson and Ariel Hukporti remain out. If Robinson can’t go, it seems likely that Precious Achuiwa simply steps into the backup center spot, and he could also potentially find a couple minutes alongside KAT. Landry Shamet could also benefit a bit if Precious just eats up the backup center role and doesn’t play any PF. Dadiet’s status doesn’t have any impact.
Orlando: Cole Anthony is questionable, while Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner remain out. The Magic will have Mac McClung available, but will be without Ethan Thompson as usual. Cole didn’t participate in shootaround today, which doesn’t bode particularly well for his status. Fortunately, it’s a fairly easy swap if he sits. Cory Joseph should eat up the large majority of what Anthony leaves behind, while Anthony Black could step into a little more time. Black’s role hasn’t really grown much with Anthony out recently, and we’ve instead seen a combination of guys step into some backend rotation minutes (Caleb Houstan, Trevelin Queen, Jett Howard).
Results
Through March 10 games, Unabated NBA members who were betting using $100 units would be up $55,141 betting straight props against median sportsbook lines 30 minutes prior to tip-off on all points, rebounds or assists player prop projections that showed a 5% or more edge in the Unabated player prop simulator.
It’s a 7.8% return on investment across 5,708 bets.
Those include the dynamic conditional projections at Unabated NBA – which offer different scenarios for a team’s performance based on whether or not questionable players sit or start.
For example, on a night where Lebron James may be questionable to play for the Lakers at 4 p.m., the team will create two sets of projections: one where James plays, and one where he’s out, to show how his presence or absence will affect projections for the rest of the team.
These results include the appropriate sit/start scenarios if a player’s status is decided at least 30 minutes before the game starts. If James is confirmed to play by 9:30 p.m. for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off, results are for the “James plays” scenario. If he’s ruled out, the opposite scenario is recorded. If no decision is made before the 30-minute mark, Lakers projections wouldn’t be included in the results.
Dig into all the projections
Get more projection notes and up-to-the-minute breaking news alerts in the Unabated Discord, with dedicated channels just for Unabated NBA members.
Unabated NBA membership includes daily fantasy points projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. For those strictly interested in traditional DFS points, Unabated NBA DFS lets you access just those numbers.
Use Props.com’s coupon code “PLAYERPROPS” when signing up to receive a FREE 5-day Unabated Sports trial! Using our link/code will grant the redeemer $30 off Unabated products (not including NBA Projections plan), which can be used for a trial or discount.
