Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
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With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Monday’s nine-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Mar. 21.
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Detroit Pistons: PG Cade Cunningham
The prop: 23.5 points
The odds: Over -125/Under +110
Cunningham got off to a slow start this season, but the top pick in last year’s draft is starting to pick up steam. That said, he’s still struggling with his scoring efficiency. He’s averaged 22.1 points over his past eight games while shooting 44.3% from the field and 34.9% from 3-point range.
The scary thing is those numbers are markedly better than his full-season stats. He’s averaging just 16.9 points on 40.5% shooting for the year, so he’s been on a bit of a heater. Overall, he’s exceeded 23.5 points in just 10 of 55 games. If he’s struggled to hit the over even when he’s been shooting better than usual, I have no problem with taking the under on Monday.
Charlotte Hornets: PG LaMelo Ball
The prop: 31.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over -115/Under -120
Conversely, Ball is an outstanding buy-low option. He hasn’t really been needed lately, as the Hornets have been absolutely rolling teams. They’ve won each of their past four games, and the Hornets have put up an average of more than 130 points in those contests. As a result, Ball has averaged just 31.9 minutes per game over that time frame.
He has the potential to see a few additional minutes Monday vs. the Pelicans. Even if he doesn’t, Ball should still be able to hit the over on his current PRA prop. He’s averaged 33.9 points + rebounds + assists in 32.1 minutes per game this season, and the Pelicans represent a tremendous matchup. New Orleans has played significantly faster since acquiring C.J. McCollum, and the Hornets lead the slate with an implied team total of 120.0 points.
Miami Heat: PG Kyle Lowry
The prop: 21.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over -115/Under -120
The Heat acquired Lowry and his massive posterior in the offseason, but he hasn’t been asked to do much heavy lifting. The team has plenty of other players who can carry the load, and Lowry’s 12.7 points per game represents his lowest mark since the 2012-13 season.
Still, Lowry is racking up plenty of playing time, averaging 34.1 minutes per game, and he’s capable of contributing in every category across the board. He’s averaged 7.7 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game, which means he shouldn’t need to do much scoring to hit the over on his PRA prop.
Monday’s matchup vs. the 76ers is also an important one for the Heat. Miami still owns a comfortable 3.5-game lead over the 76ers in the standings, but the general perception is that the Heat are not true contenders in the Eastern Conference. They’re listed behind the Nets, Bucks, and 76ers in the Eastern Conference Futures market, so this is a bit of a statement game for them.
Chicago Bulls: SG Javonte Green
The prop: 9.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
I love taking Over on obscure players like Green. Casual NBA fans may not know him, but Green has become an important role player for the Bulls this season. He’s averaging 24.1 minutes per game, and he’s posted career bests in virtually every category across the board.
Green’s role has diminished a bit with Alex Caruso back in the lineup, and he’s averaged just 20.7 minutes over his past five games. However, that hasn’t stopped him from averaging 6.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 0.4 assists per game. This number is simply too low, especially at -105 odds.
Dallas Mavericks: SF Reggie Bullock
The prop: 11.5 points
The odds: Over +100/Under -125
Bullock has missed the past four games for the Mavericks, but he is not listed on the injury report for Monday’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves. It’s an elite spot for Bullock to make his return, with the Timberwolves ranking first in pace by a sizable margin over their past 10 games. The Mavericks have played at the slowest pace this season, so this is a massive pace-up spot.
That gives the Mavericks significantly more scoring upside than usual, but Bullock is not the type of player who figures to benefit. He’s a low usage player – his 13.5% usage rate is one of the lowest marks on the team – and virtually all of his scoring comes on catch-and-shoot opportunities. That means he’ll need to knock down his shots to hit the over on 11.5 points. That may not be the most groundbreaking analysis, but fading shooters like Bullock always has merit. He could be a bit rusty following his extended absence, and his minutes could be monitored as well.
