Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA props from Monday’s holiday slate of 12 games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Jan. 17.
Atlanta Hawks: PF John Collins
The Prop: 8.5 rebounds (vs. Milwaukee)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -130
Let’s dive into some recent history (which suggests oddsmakers set this prop number a bit too high): Collins has cleared this rebounding number just once in his last seven games, collecting 5, 8, 8, 7, 11, 5, and 3 boards during this stretch.
A big reason why Collins’ rebounding numbers have been depressed lately is a lack of playing time. In those seven games, which followed a five-game absence, Collins has averaged 31.3 minutes per contest. His high point: 34 minutes.
Some quick math tells us Collins is averaging 0.21 rebounds per minute over his last seven games. If he maintains his recent playing time and rebounding averages, Collins is looking at roughly 6.6 rebounds Monday.
The Wake Forest product has faced the Bucks twice in the regular season (both times last year) and pulled down a total of just nine boards. He was better on the glass against Milwaukee in the playoffs, averaging 9.5 rebounds over six games. However, he topped eight rebounds just twice (while landing on eight three times).
For the season, Collins has corralled nine-plus rebounds in 15 of 37 games this season — a proficiency clip of 40.5 percent. And he’s beaten this prop number in three of his last four home games. So, Collins at least has a puncher’s chance at toppling tonight’s total, especially when playing on sufficient rest (idle Sunday).
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Toronto Raptors: PG Fred VanVleet
The Prop: 4.5 made three-pointers (at Miami)
The Odds: Over +130/Under -190
We rarely select props with odds that stretch beyond -160. But this qualifies as a special circumstance, partly because of a massive line move. As of noon EST on Monday, DraftKings had VanVleet’s three-pointers prop odds at +100/-130. However, just two hours later, those odds shot up to +130/-190.
It’s a big move that doesn’t seem very justifiable. Consider:
— VanVleet has buried five or more triples seven times in his last 11 games. The per-outing breakdown: 6, 6, 4, 7, 7, 5, 4, 8, 4, 6, and 3 makes.
— During this same stretch, VanVleet shot from 44.4 percent from beyond the arc — well above his season average of 40.9 percent.
— Since Dec. 2, VanVleet has attempted double-digit three-pointers in 13 of 16 games.
— VanVleet has drained 24 of 56 triples (42.8%) in his last five road games. The total makes: 6, 3, 5, 6, and 4.
— Finally, the Heat are allowing the third-most three-pointers this season, at 13.7 per game.
Granted, VanVleet eclipsed this prop total just once in three meetings with Miami last year, cumulatively shooting 36.0 percent from long distance (9 of 25).
Oklahoma City Thunder: PG/SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The Prop: 22.5 points (at Dallas)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -105
The rebuilding Thunder launch their longest road swing of the season tonight, with four games over six nights.
Which begs the question: Is Gilgeous-Alexander a more prodigious scorer away from Chesapeake Energy Arena? To quote the iconic Kool-Aid Man: “Ohhhh, yeaaaaaaah!”
Gilgeous-Alexander is netting 23.8 points per game on the highway, compared with 21.3 ppg at home. And in his last eight road games, Gilgeous-Alexander is pouring in 28.1 points per outing. During this stellar stretch, Gilgeous-Alexander has toppled Monday’s prop number seven times (33, 32, 19, 33, 29, 23, 26, and 30 points).
On the downside, Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting just 41.9 percent from the field this season (career average: 46.7%). And he has been held under 20 points in two of his last three matchups against Dallas. That includes an 18-point effort at home against the Mavericks on Dec. 12.
San Antonio Spurs: PG Dejounte Murray
The Prop: 35.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. Phoenix)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
Murray ranks third among NBA players in triple-doubles this season (seven), trailing only Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook (more on Westbrook shortly).
And Murray’s scoring output this season (19.1 points per game) accounts for merely 52.6 percent of his points/rebounds/assists production — putting him in extremely safe territory for Monday’s total. Here’s the supporting argument:
— Murray has cleanly averaged 44 points/rebounds/assists over his last seven games, while clearing this particular number five times during this span (52, 53, 40, 41, and 43).
— He’s averaged 39.2 points/rebounds/assists in his last five home outings, topping 35 in each of the last three.
— To go along with his 19.1 points per contest, Murray is averaging 8.3 rebounds and 8.9 assists. Those three numbers add up to 36.3.
— Lastly, in two games against Phoenix this season, the University of Washington product posted a triple-double (18 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists) and a double-double (17 points and 14 assists, along with six rebounds). So in both instances, Murray eclipsed this prop number.
Los Angeles Lakers: PG Russell Westbrook
The Prop: 7.5 assists (vs. Utah)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
This number perfectly matches Westbrook’s assists average since Anthony Davis went down with an injury in mid-December.
It’s also a notch lower than Westbrook’s first 30 games with the Lakers (predating Davis’ absence), when he averaged 8.3 dimes per outing.
So, which Westbrook can bettors expect to see Monday? Hard to say.
Westbrook has finished with fewer than seven assists in five of his last six games overall and six of his last nine at home. Then again, he’s dished out eight-plus dimes in slightly more than half of his games this season (22 of 43), including reaching double digits on 14 occasions.
The Jazz currently rank 10th in assists allowed to the opposition (23.3 per game). But in his last five meetings with Utah dating back to March 2019, Westbrook averaged 8.6 assists.
Westbrook will be playing on sufficient rest tonight after logging only 26 minutes Saturday at Denver.
