The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, Sept. 30
Anibal Sanchez: Washington Nationals
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.06 ERA indicates
Sanchez has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 3-6 record with a 4.06 ERA through 13 starts. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, though, as he also owns a 5.40 xFIP this season.
Sanchez struggle early in the season, and he was due for positive regression after his first few starts. His numbers overcorrected, though, and he’s due for plenty of regression now. He’s posted an ERA better than his xFIP in seven consecutive starts.
Sanchez gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. He’ll benefit from playing in Washington, and the Phillies have struggled in recent games. They own a .295 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Sanchez gets an interesting matchup tonight, as the Phillies have been struggling. I’m still expecting them to get to Sanchez, though.
Alek Manoah: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:07 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.31 ERA suggests
Manoah has been throwing at an elite level this season. He’s recorded a 15-7 record with a 2.31 ERA through 30 starts thus far. His xFIP isn’t quite as good, sitting at 3.95 through 190.2 innings.
Manoah may be a pitcher that is able to avoid regression, though. He threw 111.2 innings last season, posting a 3.22 ERA with a 4.17 xFIP. He also recorded a significantly better xFIP than his ERA in limited Triple-A innings.
Manoah gets a tough matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. They’ve been hitting at an extremely high level in recent games, posting a .346 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Manoah has consistently beat regression throughout his short career. He could do so once again in 2022, although this is a tough matchup. Truthfully, I don’t trust either side here.
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Aaron Civale: Cleveland Guardians
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.19 ERA suggests
Civale has struggled quite a bit through 18 starts in 2022. He owns a 3-6 record with a 5.19 ERA through 85 innings. His 3.80 xFIP and .313 BABIP suggest he’s due for positive regression as he throws more inning.
Civale has been a bit of a boom or bust option on a game-by-game basis this season. He’s coming off of two solid starts, though, posting 1.80 and 3.80 xFIPs against the Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox.
Civale gets an interesting matchup against the Kansas City Royals tonight. They aren’t generally an offense you’d shy away from, but they’ve been playing at a high level in recent games. The Royals boast a .348 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: This is bad timing for Civale, as the Royals aren’t a great offense, but they’re playing well. Still, I’m siding with Civale in this game.
