The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, Sept. 26
Bryce Elder: Atlanta Braves
Matchup: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.38 ERA indicates
Elder has thrown extremely well through limited innings this season. He’s posted a 1-3 record with a 3.38 ERA through 8 games (7 starts). With that being said, he also owns a 4.53 xFIP through 40 innings.
Elder struggled early in the season, but he’s stepped his game up a bit in recent starts. He’s posted 3.37, 3.60, and 2.61 xFIPs over his last three starts. Prior to that, He posted a 5.23 or worse xFIP in four consecutive starts.
Elder gets a good matchup against the Washington Nationals tonight. They’ve been struggling in recent games, posting a .279 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The right-hander will benefit from throwing in a more pitcher-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Elder has been throwing well, and this is a plus matchup. He’s likely to struggle a bit more as he throws more innings, but this likely isn’t going to be a matchup that he gets rocked in.
Connor Seabold: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 10.47 ERA suggests
It’s a limited slate, so I have to write up someone like Seabold. He enters this game with an 0-3 record and a 10.47 ERA through only 4 starts. His 5.14 xFIP suggests he’s due for regression, although he isn’t throwing at a high level.
Seabold’s advanced metrics looked okay in his first start of the season, although he got rocked. Since then, he’s posted 4.85, 8.89, and 5.09 xFIPs. He certainly isn’t as bad as his baseline metrics show, but he also isn’t a good pitcher.
Seabold gets an interesting matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve seen mixed results throughout the season, and they’ve posted a .309 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Seabold has barely thrown any inning this season. He’s only on this list because it’s a regression article and the slate is extremely limited. Even with him being due for positive regression, I wouldn’t trust him at this point. In fact, we are picking on him in several of our top MLB player props for the day.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)
Cory Abbott: Washington Nationals
Matchup: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.85 ERA suggests
Abbott hasn’t thrown well throughout the 2022 season, and he’s been even worse than his numbers suggest. He enters this game with an 0-3 record with a 4.85 ERA. He also owns a 5.87 xFIP through 14 games (7 starts).
Abbott has looked terrible in recent games. He’s posted an xFIP of over 7.00 in 5 of his last 6 starts. Surprisingly, he posted a 3.21 xFIP in the other start.
Abbott gets a terrible matchup against the Atlanta Braves tonight. They feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, and they’ve recorded a .312 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Abbott is a bad pitcher, but he’s even worse than his baseline metrics show. He’s due for even more regression, and he could find that in a terrible matchup against Atlanta tonight. That’s why we are targeting against him in our MLB prop bets today as well as our top MLB same game parlay bet.
