The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, Oct. 3
Dean Kremer: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.17 ERA indicates
Kremer has looked outstanding throughout the 2022 season. He owns an 8-6 record with a 3.17 ERA through 21 games (20 starts). He’s also posted a 4.41 xFIP, and he’s due for some regression.
Kremer has seen mixed results in recent games, but he’s struggled much more than his numbers suggest. He’s posted a 4.78 xFIP in 4 of his last 5 starts, including a 7.67 xFIP against the Boston Red Sox in his last start.
Kremer gets a terrible matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. They’ve recorded a .341 team wOBA over the last 14 days, and they’ll benefit from hitting in Baltimore’s stadium tonight.
Bottom Line: Kremer has found plenty of success this season, but his advanced metrics look awful in recent starts. He’ll regress at some point, and the Blue Jays feature a great offense.
Bryan Garcia: Detroit Tigers
Matchup: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.29 ERA suggests
Garcia has thrown well through only 3 starts this season. He owns a 1-0 record with a 3.29 ERA thus far. With that being said, he’s also recorded a 5.43 xFIP in those games, suggesting he’s been extremely lucky up until this point.
Although he hasn’t necessarily looked awful at this point, Garica hasn’t been great in any of his starts in 2022. He’s posted 4.42, 7.59, and 4.73 xFIPs in those thus far.
Garcia gets a matchup against the Seattle Mariners tonight. The Mariners have seen mixed results over the last 14 days, posting a .311 team wOBA over that span. He’ll benefit from throwing in Seattle’s stadium, though.
Bottom Line: Garcia has struggled quite a bit this season, but his baseline metrics don’t show that. He’ll benefit from the stadium, but this is too difficult of a matchup for the young pitcher.
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Hunter Greene: Cincinnati Reds
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.66 ERA suggests
Greene has seen mixed results throughout his rookie season. He boasts a 4-13 record with a 4.66 ERA through 23 starts. He’s also posted a 3.70 xFIP, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky early in his career.
Greene struggled early in the season, but he’s looked unstoppable over his last few starts. He’s posted an xFIP under 4.00 in each of his last seven starts. He’s recorded 3.02, 3.19, 0.43, and 3.17 xFIPs in his last four starts.
Greene gets an interesting matchup against the Chicago Cubs, although he’ll be throwing in a hitter-friendly stadium. The Cubs own a .280 team wOBA over the last 14 days, and they’ve struggled quite a bit of that stretch.
Bottom Line: Greene is throwing at an extremely high level right now. He should find plenty of success against this Chicago team.
