The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, August 4
Johnny Cueto: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers | 8:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.86 ERA indicates
It’s 2022, and Cueto owns a 2.86 ERA. You read that right. How? I’m not sure, but it isn’t likely to last throughout the season. He’s struggled quite a bit with a 4.33 xFIP through 14 games (13 starts).
Cueto has been extremely successful in recent games, but he’s struggling with his advanced metrics. He’s posted 4.89, 5.67, 4.93, and 6.85 xFIPs in 4 of his last 5 starts. He allowed only 8 earned runs over 26 innings in those starts.
Cueto gets an interesting matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. They haven’t played all that well in recent games, but they do come with some upside as an offense.
Bottom Line: Cueto has posted great numbers in recent games, but his advanced metrics suggest he will come back to Earth sooner than later. This isn’t the worst matchup, but Texas does have some upside in their offense.
Kris Bubic: Kansas City Royals
Matchup: Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.45 ERA suggests
Bubic isn’t a good pitcher by any stretch, but he also isn’t quite as bad as he’s throwing this season. He owns a 2-6 record with a 5.45 ERA and a 4.69 xFIP through 17 games (16 starts) in 2022.
The left-hander has gone through stretches where he’s thrown relatively well, but he also goes through stretches where he’s arguably one of the worst starters in the MLB. He’s currently in a better stretch, recording 3.85 and 3.68 xFIPs in two of his last three starts.
Bubic gets an interesting matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. They haven’t been playing well in recent games, but they do have an offense that can get to a bad left-hander. Similar to the majority of Bubic’s starts, I see this as fairly risky, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he finds some success.
Bottom Line: Bubic is a bad pitcher who is due for some positive regression. This is a reasonable matchup, although it’s almost impossible to trust him in even the best matchups.
Jakob Junis: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants | 3:45 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.78 ERA suggests
Junis is enjoying an outstanding season for the San Francisco Giants. He owns a 4-2 record with a 2.78 ERA through 12 games (9 starts). He owns a 3.69 xFIP, though, suggesting he’s due for some regression.
Junis has also been significantly better as a reliever, which is the case for a lot of pitchers. His xFIP dips to 2.61 in limited reliever innings compared to 3.98 as a starter.
Junis gets a terrible matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. They rank third in the MLB in team wOBA (.356) over the last 14 days, and they’ve consistently been one of the best offenses in the league.
Bottom Line: Junis is enjoying an outstanding season, and he’s a solid pitcher. He’s due for regression, though, and he gets a tough matchup against one of the MLB’s best offenses.
