Falcons vs. Commanders Predictions, Odds & Player Props – Week 6

Oct 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) passes the ball against the Houston Texans during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Image Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons and Washington Commanders will match up on Sunday, Oct 15. Kickoff for the game is 1:00 ET and will be shown on CBS. Atlanta is favored by 2.5 points in this game, and the total is 42.5.

Who do we think will come out on top? Keep reading for our top Falcons vs. Commanders predictions.

Falcons vs. Commanders Odds

  • Spread: Falcons -2.5
  • Total 42.5

Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Oct 15
  • Time: 1:00 ET
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
  • TV: CBS

Commanders Betting Trends

  • Over their last five games, the Commanders have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
  • When looking at their past three road matchups, Washington has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 28 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Commanders have a straight-up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 3-2.

Falcons Betting Trends

  • In their last five games, the Falcons have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
  • In their last ten games at home, the Falcons have a straight-up record of 1-9 while going 4-6 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 15 points per game in these contests.
  • Against the spread, the Falcons have put together 1-2 in their last three games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-0 straight up.

Will Washington Find a Way to Win on the Road?

Over the course of five games, the Commanders have put together a record of 2-3. This positions them 3rd in the NFC-East and 11th in the NFC. The Commanders’ current scoring margin stands at -10.2, which has them coming in with a 2-3 ATS record.

The last time they played, the Commanders were handed a 40-20 loss by the Bears. In addition to losing straight-up, the Commanders also lost vs. the spread as 6-point favorites. With a combined score of 60 points, the game surpassed the exceeded the pre-game over/under line of 45.

Washington’s offense produced a total of 388 yards against the Bears. When it came to third downs, the Commanders had a conversion rate of 50%. The leading rusher for the Commanders was Sam Howell with 19 yards, and Sam Howell contributed 388 passing yards.

Going up against the Falcons’ offense, the Commanders’ defense has allowed an average of 32 points per game. So far this season, they are 5th in quarterback hits and have yielded an average of 372.2 yards per contest.

Is Atlanta Ready for a Home Win?

Going into week 6, Atlanta is 2nd in the NFC-South with an overall record of 3-2. Within the NFC, they find themselves in 6th place. When it comes to the spread, the Falcons have a 1-4 record. Heading into week 6, their scoring margin is at -2.6 (per game).

In the most recent game they played, the Falcons picked up a win over the Texans by a score of 21-19. Although they won the game, the Falcons failed to cover the spread against the Texans despite being favored by 2.5. In the matchup with Houston, the pre-game over/under line was 42. The under hit in the game, as they combined for 40 points.

Offensively, Desmond Ridder ended with 329 passing yards with a completion rate of 75%. The Falcons ran the ball 36 times, gaining 96 yards. The team converted 7 of 14 third-down opportunities.

The Falcons defense comes into the game with rankings of 12th in tackles for loss and 13th in sacks. Their opponents have been scoring 19.2 points per game and gaining 295.2 yards (per game).

Falcons vs. Commanders Player Prop

As Desmond Ridder gears up for the game against Washington, his passing yards over/under sits at 204.5.

Thus far, Ridder has thrown for 1073 yards while making 156 attempts. His completion rate for the season is 65.4%, and he holds a passer rating of 85.8. So far, the Commanders’ defense has been a below-average group at getting off the field on third downs. I’m expecting this to continue and I like the over on Ridder’s prop of 204.5 passing yards.

The Prop: Desmond Ridder Over 204.5 Passing Yards (-116)

Falcons vs. Commanders Predictions

Washington opened as 1.5-point favorites, and the oddsmakers have since adjusted the lines to +2.5 for the Commanders.

A key matchup to watch in this game is the Commanders’ offense vs. the Falcons’ defense. Our projections have the Falcons being able to control this game at home with their fierce rushing attack, and putting away the Commanders while covering the spread. 

The Pick: Falcons -2.5 | -110 at Fanduel Sportsbook

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