It’s a lopsided National League matchup on MLB Network tonight. The visiting Washington Nationals are fielding offers for their wunderkind outfielder, and the Dodgers are one of the World Series favorites.
Nevertheless, there is intriguing betting action that doesn’t involve eating massive chalk. What action is that? Check out the betting info below and find out our best bet and predictions for this contest.
Dodgers vs Nationals Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals (Espino) | +1.5 (+122) | +250 | O 8.0 (-110) |
| @ Dodgers (Gonsolin) | -1.5 (-145) | -320 | U 8.0 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 9:30 am ET July 25.
Espino Isn’t A Legitimate Starter
Espino vs Dodgers: Paolo Espino began the year by pitching well out of Washington’s bullpen. According to FanGraphs, in 20 relief appearances totaling 26.2 innings, the righty had a 2.03 ERA. However, Espino’s 4.08 xFIP was the first clue he was overachieving.
Regardless, the hapless Nationals moved him to the rotation, and it hasn’t been a smooth transition. In seven starts spanning 31.1 innings, Espino has had a 4.88 ERA and 4.51 xFIP, getting tagged for 2.30 HR/9 innings. Washington has lost six of seven of his starts, and the converted reliever has pitched 5.1 innings or less in all seven turns, putting pressure on Washington’s dreadful bullpen with MLB’s fifth-highest ERA (4.40).
Dodgers offense: The Dodgers aren’t at full strength, but their offense still has elite high-end firepower. In fact, they’re first in wRC+ (122) against righties, first in wRC+ (131) over the last 30 days, and first in wRC+ (124) in home games. Thus, they’re a well-oiled machine.
Moreover, the individual components of the offense have been impressive, too. Since last year, against righties, eight members of tonight’s projected starting lineup have had at least a 109 wRC+, and seven have had a 119 wRC+ or better. So, the lineup is high-octane and deep.
Tony Gonsolin Is The Real Deal
Gonsolin vs Nationals: Tony Gonsolin has spun a sparkling 2.02 ERA in 17 starts totaling 93.2 innings. Like anyone with an ERA that low, he’s been a pinch lucky. However, the righty’s 2.98 xERA proves he’s the real deal.
Unfortunately, the 28-year-old righty is coming off his worst effort of 2022, yielding five runs in five innings to the St. Louis Cardinals. Regardless, Washington’s offense hasn’t been in the Red Birds’ class. Additionally, the hiccup is the only blemish on Gonsolin’s game log, as he’d held the opposition to two runs or less in his previous 16 starts. Gonsolin has also reliable provided innings, pitching at least five in 14 of his last 15 starts.
Nationals offense: The Nationals are a below-average offense by every measure. They’re 21st in wRC+ (94) against righties, 27th in wRC+ (85) over the last 30 days, and 20th in wRC+ (97). The season is spiraling down the toilet bowl for the Nationals, and their present “Natitude” seems to be playing out the string.
Juan Soto is the primary source of offense. He’s had a 176 wRC+ against righties since last year. Josh Bell (129 wRC+) and Nelson Cruz (103 wRC+) have been the only other above-average hitters against righties since last year. As a result, Washington’s offense is an unimposing group.
Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction
The Dodgers should treat the Nationals like a speed bump tonight. They have a decided advantage on the hill between the starters and bullpens, and the hosts also have a much better offense. As a result, I expect the Dodgers to cover the runline.
However, I expect the Dodgers to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. Washington has allowed six or more runs in four of Espino’s seven starts. They’ve allowed a total of 42 runs in those turns, good for an average of six runs per game. Frankly, that’s not shocking since Espino stinks and has overtaxed Washington’s lousy bullpen by getting early hooks. Therefore, I love the Dodgers’ alternate over of 5.5 runs at Caesars Sportsbook. It’s listed as home total runs, and getting a +110 line is intriguing instead of the -145 runline betting the Dodgers to cover 1.5 runs.
The Pick: Dodgers Team Total Runs Over 5.5 | +110 at Caesars Sportsbook
